Crypto thread

Good Luck on your Big Play Detox! 

I'm in HD at $30 in 2010 and GOOG at $114, 4 days after it IPO'd. BAC at $3 during the financial crisis for 1500 shares. CSCO at $10 and INTC at $23. I'm long basically every sector at huge gains, collecting dividends all the way through that have added up quite nicely. 

You are already shorting HD, but good luck with the rest. 

Damn.. that's pretty good Gamble.  You've held those stocks the entire time ?  

Yep. Buy and hold has been my strategy with sub 3% cash until this year....now 20% cash.

Skeptics can criticize if they wish.

BTC halving in 19 days 

My sources on the streets are telling me that the bank numbers coming out next Thursday are “worse than the GFC” 

Year to date:

BTC: -3%

Gold: +11% 

Dow Jones: -20%

S&P 500: -16%

Oh boy 

Out of everything besides GLD call 

Looking for BAC or JPM to go up and go into a short term put 

Thoughts 

JPM $84 PUT 

Exp 5/1 10 contacts Avg cost $1.18 

Would like JPM under $85 by the end of the week 

Bear flags everywhere 

Remember the market is discounting everything...so if the banks come out and drop their drawers (which is exactly what they SHOULD and likely will do..this is the chance for them to clean the closet and its a good time to do so) the market will discount their miss and not punish.

Where banks will get hit is if their loan loss reserves go UP UP UP...if so then they will get hit...so watch banks under shoot their loan loss and hope things improve vs taking their lumps now.

1. Largest equity bubble of all time (pension crisis and buyback bubble) 

2. Largest wave of retirees of all time (pension crisis, where retirees own all of the stock and credit) 

3. Largest corporate credit bubble of all time 

4. Student loan bubble 

5. Auto loan bubble 

6. The indexation bubble 

7. The ETF/market structure bubble 

8. The foreign borrowings bubble (the dollar standard bubble) 

9. The bubble in monetary policy (the central bank bubble) 

10. An EU banking crisis 

Guy who called oil going negative (Raoul Pal) wrote that 

Thoughts? 

If anyone wants to read a good in-depth newsletter about the current markets — go to @RaoulGMI on Twitter, look for his newsletter tweet, put in your email and they’ll send it to you. 

So this is my concern. I think that the markets are going to crash. I am heavily invested in crypto. And I mean HEAVILY. And I think there is a good chance that if the markets crash, bitcoin and crypto will also tumble. 

I would put the odds at 65% crypto will crash with it and 35% BTC decouples and does it’s own thing. 

I guess I need to cash 50%+ out to USDT? Leave some in so I don’t jump off a building if I miss the pump? 

And keep shorting stuff on Robinhood. Maybe throw some more cash over there to increase the size of my short positions. 

Thoughts? 

How about an update on the challenge? 

Like yourself, I'm pessimistic on the short term for equities and our economy. That said, I remain 80% long and 20% cash. I try to think in terms of decades with investment strategy. A short term strategy requires information that will not get to your ears first. The hedge funds will always beat you to the trade.

I see you are planning to short BAC. Remember you will be fighting the Fed on that one. 

Update it, it will give me a more recent post to quote in the future. 

BAC is going down. 

I’d say these bear flags break down soon. Possibly by the middle of next week. That would mean the Dow hits 18,500 again, stalls and then down some more. 

Looking to get into a short term PUT on HD before today’s close. 

HD $192.5 PUT 

exp 5/1 avg $1.88 5 contracts 

Buy put at 205.50 — price currently 204.17 and I’m -$250. 

Scam! 

Lifting restrictions in Boston could be 2 months away, Mayor Walsh says 

What are we shorting today? 

Currently in HD and JPM puts that expire 5/1. 

Looking to get into another 1 or 2 this morning.