Posted:
#1
Not much room for input when you have the half V6/half Herculean mastery of Arrogate in this race. Naturally he draws a beautiful post at 9, though I feel like he and Smith handle a lot better on the inside position. What should it though (PP) as this horse starts better than most I've ever seen regardless of what position.
And that's it. Oddsmakers are on the money with this. There is absolutely no way in hell I could consider any of these other horses. You certainly have a who's who as far as names in this race, but what have you done of any importance lately campaigns ala Keen Ice, Neolithic and the lunatic himself Lani.
My main thoughts go to those that you can play the OVER role on your straight exacta ticket.
So my top candidates
Gun Runner- who has been pretty hot as recent as the Razorback (ran the 1-1/16 in 1:40!) Easily at his absolute best right now, and that could be noticed in a really fine finish at Breeders Cup. With Geroux aboard GR he's my current top pick to come closest to Arrogate's contrails. Most impressive race I've seen from GR was the Clark where he knocked off a pretty damnn good field including Shaman Ghost and Breaking Lucky.
Hopportunity- is racing well but hasn't done much in a G1 since Gold Cup at Belmont, and Effinex the only real threat in that one.
Aside from Arrogate I try to avoid the over-hype that seems to attach to most Baffert horses. Hopportunity reminds me a lot of Cupid where the horse does have its G1 wins, but nobody worth raising a brow over was beat in said race. When you put some prime closers in the lineup, Hopportunity never seems to keep pace on stretch. He'll tire out in this one, I just have the feeling.
Aside from Arrogate I try to avoid the over-hype that seems to attach to most Baffert horses. Hopportunity reminds me a lot of Cupid where the horse does have its G1 wins, but nobody worth raising a brow over was beat in said race. When you put some prime closers in the lineup, Hopportunity never seems to keep pace on stretch. He'll tire out in this one, I just have the feeling.
Mubtaahij is clearly in a different zone on home track here. Finished out of the money just twice in nine races at Meyden. handled himself quite well behind Chrome in last years World Cup. Got beat by a freak in Shaman Ghost in Woodward. So I guess they set this one right at 8/1.
And that's it. Oddsmakers are on the money with this. There is absolutely no way in hell I could consider any of these other horses. You certainly have a who's who as far as names in this race, but what have you done of any importance lately campaigns ala Keen Ice, Neolithic and the lunatic himself Lani.
Early plays.
Exacta Arrogate over Gun Runner
Trifecta Arrogate over Gun Runner/Mubtaahij.
Considering a heavy duty play on Gun Runner for place, show.
No $ figures yet.
Please add, share or critique!!! 
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