The Sham---Analysis and Picks

Santa Anita, dirt; 1 mile; $100K; 10 Derby points to the winner

One heckuv a field for a prelim to the prelims with 7 horses each capable of a win.

Led by Shirreffs #5 Gormley (8-5 ML) and Baffert’s #1 American Anthem (9-5), the winner is likely to come from the speed of the speed…..of the speed ….with just about every one of the boys capable of a collecting the major check.

Not sure that will happen as the pace looks to be a quick one.

#1 American Anthem……Son of electric Bodemeister, a front running monster, American Anthem did it all from an outside post (#11) drawing in, stalking, then pouncing for the win in the 6F affair tallying an 86 Beyer. With all of the upfront speed in this, I expect the same type of tactic today. Mike Smith, a come-from-behind maestro, rides for Baffert.

#2 Term of Art….A nice Tiznow colt who is 5/2-1-1 in his career for Doug O’Neill, while, perhaps, a step behind some of these, could find life in the stretch if this breaks down up front. Don’t dismiss for at least a piece. Talamo rides at 5-1 ML.

#3 Bird is the Word….Easy to dismiss at 20-1, he’s done OK work to date, but doesn’t appear to rate with these. Trainer Almeida might not be in the team photo with other SoCal trainers, but he is capable. The X factor for me is that the Birdstone colt gets Kent D, and that could make the difference for a few shekels.

#4 Colonel Samsen….Any time Eoin Hardy puts one in a spot like this in California, I take note. Some real talent here out of the great Colonel John and a Skip Away mare, the lad is 6/2-1-1 so far and comes in on a two race win streak. Take note: First time on the dirt as he’s been all poly and grass. Breeding says he can handle it. Working well on the dirt and a juicy 12-1 and worth a big-look-see for shocking upset or solid piece. Semi-Hot jock Prat handles the chores.

#5 Gormely……The 8-5 ML fave and the real deal, it appears he was the 7^th place finisher in the BC Juve after a G-1 win at 1-1/16 at this track in a wire (93 Beyer), and a debut win. Track preview says he might have to come off the pace to win this, and I agree. Victor E rides and that is a huge factor in the tactics. There might be 3 or 4 at the wire and he might be one of them.

#6 Big Hit……A lot to like in this Super Saver colt starting with sharpie trainer Phil D’Amato. Wired the field last out, on the improve and working well. He should compete at 4-1 ML and, if anything else, should make the race interesting.

#7 Blabimir….Tapizar’s son has won his last two races for Doug O’Neill and looks to get out early under Doug’s “A” jock, Mario Gutierrez. Nice work coming in at

My pick: #1 American Anthem to win

$8 exacta:1/6

$5 exacta straight: 1-2

$3 tri: 1/ 2,5,6/2,4,5,6,7

 GL TO ALL!

Got it. Thanks Kursch. See my reply

WOW! If you want to see a great race, this is it!

#5 Gormely noses #1 American Anthem at the wire---a match race out of the gate!

Right now, these 2 look like they might be the best coming out of California!

#6 Big Hit third

5-1-6-3

Good analysis, Kursch. You said it well. What do you think of these two?

Blistering 22.54. 45.2.....not sure what they finished out, but it was as fast as you'll get in that mudbath!

NATCHE...How did you end up?

The horse player's curse: Coulda Woulda Shoulda!