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    All Forums | Horse Racing

    The Santa Anita Derby Analysis and Picks

    mikeyp1
    pittsburghphil
    Jr315
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    mikeyp1
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    Posted: Apr. 8, 2017 - 4:29 PM ET #1

     

    Hey…a full field of 13 horses and, at least at 3 pm Eastern time, no scratches

    Let’s get right into it.

    #2 Reach the World…..A fine one out of Tapit for Baffert, a seven time winner of this, with Mikey Smith aboard, who has won this once. Not the speedster, like some of these, but a class performer out of a Galileo mare, which means grass could be the future. His first venture into stakes and the stretch to 1-1/8 miles, distance should be no problem. Lifetime, the boy is 3/1-1-1 coming off a loss by a neck to well-thought of colt, Battle of Midway, who is competing in this. He broke his maiden in a blistering wire job at 1-1/16 miles by 3-1/4 L. It’s the only time he’s gone out, so maybe today Double B chooses the front running tactic?

    #3 Battle of Midway….A sharp Smart Strike colt trained by Jerry Hollendorfer and looking ready for run off a nice win last out. BM finished third 8 lengths out in the San Vicente, his only stakes race, which was won by Iliad. Nakatani takes the reigns for a horse that could continue to improve and to grab a part.

    #5 So Conflated….One for which trainer O’Neill had high hopes after winning the Cal Derby, only to come crashing in the Gotham after the long haul from CA to NY where, aside from grabbing the frequent flyer miles, he lost by 22 lengths. I say toss it, as Doug puts Mario G. back on at 15-1. Keep in mind that if he wins today, if shipping is an issue, then maybe the go to Kentucky won’t work. Just asking. I will look for a slice.

    #6 American Anthem…..Six weeks ago or so, he was my Derby lean, and if you would have told me that this guy is 5-1 in the SA Derby, I might have taken out a reverse mortgage to bet him today. I still have no clue why he was so bad in the Rebel, aside from maybe the ship or the quirky Oak Lawn environment were factors. He threw a shoe too. Or, maybe 1-1/16 miles is just too long? I want to toss that race, but can’t, primarily because I am not convinced he can go well more than a mile. Baffert puts Marty Garcia on, a good thing, I think. Let’s see if he can come back today against the toughest he’s faced yet. Check the work for this. Stellar.


    Reply
    To remove first post, remove entire topic.

     

    Hey…a full field of 13 horses and, at least at 3 pm Eastern time, no scratches

    Let’s get right into it.

    #2 Reach the World…..A fine one out of Tapit for Baffert, a seven time winner of this, with Mikey Smith aboard, who has won this once. Not the speedster, like some of these, but a class performer out of a Galileo mare, which means grass could be the future. His first venture into stakes and the stretch to 1-1/8 miles, distance should be no problem. Lifetime, the boy is 3/1-1-1 coming off a loss by a neck to well-thought of colt, Battle of Midway, who is competing in this. He broke his maiden in a blistering wire job at 1-1/16 miles by 3-1/4 L. It’s the only time he’s gone out, so maybe today Double B chooses the front running tactic?

    #3 Battle of Midway….A sharp Smart Strike colt trained by Jerry Hollendorfer and looking ready for run off a nice win last out. BM finished third 8 lengths out in the San Vicente, his only stakes race, which was won by Iliad. Nakatani takes the reigns for a horse that could continue to improve and to grab a part.

    #5 So Conflated….One for which trainer O’Neill had high hopes after winning the Cal Derby, only to come crashing in the Gotham after the long haul from CA to NY where, aside from grabbing the frequent flyer miles, he lost by 22 lengths. I say toss it, as Doug puts Mario G. back on at 15-1. Keep in mind that if he wins today, if shipping is an issue, then maybe the go to Kentucky won’t work. Just asking. I will look for a slice.

    #6 American Anthem…..Six weeks ago or so, he was my Derby lean, and if you would have told me that this guy is 5-1 in the SA Derby, I might have taken out a reverse mortgage to bet him today. I still have no clue why he was so bad in the Rebel, aside from maybe the ship or the quirky Oak Lawn environment were factors. He threw a shoe too. Or, maybe 1-1/16 miles is just too long? I want to toss that race, but can’t, primarily because I am not convinced he can go well more than a mile. Baffert puts Marty Garcia on, a good thing, I think. Let’s see if he can come back today against the toughest he’s faced yet. Check the work for this. Stellar.


     
    mikeyp1
    mikeyp1
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    Posted: Apr. 8, 2017 - 4:29 PM ET #2

    #7 Kimbear….This is what I wrote before the Sunland Derby. He was scratched from that for this, so take note: “Here is an interesting guy at 15-1 ML for trainer Eric Kruljac, if, for any other reason than his three works coming into this: .58.2, .59.2, .59 flat. His maiden indicates he might like the stretch to 1-1/8. While Kimbear might be destined for a career on the California lawn, he certainly appears to handle the dirt nicely and should be a must-consider for some.” Since then, he’s worked .59.2, .58.2 and .59.2. His stakes debut, and a tough spot, and never having gone two turns, for those liking him at 12-1, hope he didn’t leave it on the track. While he isn’t a front runner, maybe that will be the strategy today. Watching this horse with great interest going forward.

    #8 Gormly…..Knock knock. Who’s there? He won at 1-1/16 the first time he took to the distance, then lost his next to at the same footage by a combined 26 lengths. I am leaning toward thinking that he can’t win at 1-1/8 miles against this crowd, so I will play against despite the combo of Victor Espinoza and John Shirreffs. In addition, I am not seeing anything that bowls me over in the work. Certainly, a piece is possible. The trainer is 0% in wins 3rd of layoff in 16 starts.

     

    #9 Iliad….What will Iliad’s odyssey be today coming of a second place finish to Mastery in the San Felipe after winning the San Vicente. Regular rider Prat rides for O’Neill on a horse that could move to the lead, or at least be in the top 3 pretty much the entire race. Out of Ghostzapper, if he grabs the lead, the colt is likely capable of keeping it. A major player today at 7-2.

    #13 Royal Mo…..Mo wasn’t so royal in the Rebel finishing 9th eleven lengths behind. Was it the shipping? The track? In any case, it was RM’s first finish out of the money (5/2-2-0), so at 10-1, some will toss the Rebel. A bad post for trainer Shirreffs and his rider, Gary Stevens. Could be a rough day with the trainer 0% in wins 3rd of layoff in 16 starts.

     

    My picks:

    I think I would like to sit this one out, but not being part of the “P” nation, I won’t. Going for the upset, and maybe a price better than 5-1.

    #2 Reach the World to win and place…..Baffert vindicated? I am going to bank on the $300 K Tapit colt to close like a freight train to sin this.

    $12 exacta: 2/3,5

    $6 exacta: 2/3,5,9

    $2 tri: 2/3,5,9/3,5,7,8,9,13

     

     

     

    Reply

    #7 Kimbear….This is what I wrote before the Sunland Derby. He was scratched from that for this, so take note: “Here is an interesting guy at 15-1 ML for trainer Eric Kruljac, if, for any other reason than his three works coming into this: .58.2, .59.2, .59 flat. His maiden indicates he might like the stretch to 1-1/8. While Kimbear might be destined for a career on the California lawn, he certainly appears to handle the dirt nicely and should be a must-consider for some.” Since then, he’s worked .59.2, .58.2 and .59.2. His stakes debut, and a tough spot, and never having gone two turns, for those liking him at 12-1, hope he didn’t leave it on the track. While he isn’t a front runner, maybe that will be the strategy today. Watching this horse with great interest going forward.

    #8 Gormly…..Knock knock. Who’s there? He won at 1-1/16 the first time he took to the distance, then lost his next to at the same footage by a combined 26 lengths. I am leaning toward thinking that he can’t win at 1-1/8 miles against this crowd, so I will play against despite the combo of Victor Espinoza and John Shirreffs. In addition, I am not seeing anything that bowls me over in the work. Certainly, a piece is possible. The trainer is 0% in wins 3rd of layoff in 16 starts.

     

    #9 Iliad….What will Iliad’s odyssey be today coming of a second place finish to Mastery in the San Felipe after winning the San Vicente. Regular rider Prat rides for O’Neill on a horse that could move to the lead, or at least be in the top 3 pretty much the entire race. Out of Ghostzapper, if he grabs the lead, the colt is likely capable of keeping it. A major player today at 7-2.

    #13 Royal Mo…..Mo wasn’t so royal in the Rebel finishing 9th eleven lengths behind. Was it the shipping? The track? In any case, it was RM’s first finish out of the money (5/2-2-0), so at 10-1, some will toss the Rebel. A bad post for trainer Shirreffs and his rider, Gary Stevens. Could be a rough day with the trainer 0% in wins 3rd of layoff in 16 starts.

     

    My picks:

    I think I would like to sit this one out, but not being part of the “P” nation, I won’t. Going for the upset, and maybe a price better than 5-1.

    #2 Reach the World to win and place…..Baffert vindicated? I am going to bank on the $300 K Tapit colt to close like a freight train to sin this.

    $12 exacta: 2/3,5

    $6 exacta: 2/3,5,9

    $2 tri: 2/3,5,9/3,5,7,8,9,13

     

     

     

     
    pittsburghphil
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    Posted: Apr. 8, 2017 - 4:57 PM ET #3

      mike    watched the draw  wed, interview with baffert   was interesting...  smith was asking for  reach the world...  he said  american anthem  threw a shoe early in ark race.. he  mentioned he and garcia are sending anthem today....  also  mentioned the 11  irish freedom  worked terrific..    he dont have a derby horse  yet...   yep  im on the 2  and 6 to run well   good  day 
    Reply
      mike    watched the draw  wed, interview with baffert   was interesting...  smith was asking for  reach the world...  he said  american anthem  threw a shoe early in ark race.. he  mentioned he and garcia are sending anthem today....  also  mentioned the 11  irish freedom  worked terrific..    he dont have a derby horse  yet...   yep  im on the 2  and 6 to run well   good  day 
     
    mikeyp1
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    Posted: Apr. 8, 2017 - 5:05 PM ET #4

    Interesting, Philly. I was so busy this week that I couldn't read up as much. Thanks for the info.
    Reply
    Interesting, Philly. I was so busy this week that I couldn't read up as much. Thanks for the info.
     
    mikeyp1
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    Posted: Apr. 8, 2017 - 7:20 PM ET #5

    What the hell was that? Just the reason why I didn't like this race


    Gormley wins: 8-3-13-2

    Reply

    What the hell was that? Just the reason why I didn't like this race


    Gormley wins: 8-3-13-2

     
    pittsburghphil
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    Posted: Apr. 9, 2017 - 10:21 AM ET #6

    mike......   that  was  40.24   for the last 3/8  and  a lowly  88  beyer for the winner  gormley..    irap  got a 93  for bluegrass win..  using  beyer numbers   sometimes works  .....
    Reply
    mike......   that  was  40.24   for the last 3/8  and  a lowly  88  beyer for the winner  gormley..    irap  got a 93  for bluegrass win..  using  beyer numbers   sometimes works  .....
     
    Jr315
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    Posted: Apr. 9, 2017 - 10:52 AM ET #7

    Gormley was the only winner I had in the 3 preps!  As far as the time goes, I believe/think that a horse will only as fast as it needs to?

    What is a good time to run the last 3/8?  I have no about times.

    Reply

    Gormley was the only winner I had in the 3 preps!  As far as the time goes, I believe/think that a horse will only as fast as it needs to?

    What is a good time to run the last 3/8?  I have no about times.

     
    Jr315
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    Posted: Apr. 9, 2017 - 10:54 AM ET #8

    only "RUN". Sorry left that out.  My thoughts go 100 mph but typing goes 10.
    Reply
    only "RUN". Sorry left that out.  My thoughts go 100 mph but typing goes 10.
     
    mikeyp1
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    Posted: Apr. 9, 2017 - 2:08 PM ET #9

    Good pick, Jr....just a crap race and Philly's mention of an 88 Beyer confirms it.


    Derby winner will come out of Arkansas or Florida?


    what do you think?

    Reply

    Good pick, Jr....just a crap race and Philly's mention of an 88 Beyer confirms it.


    Derby winner will come out of Arkansas or Florida?


    what do you think?

     
     
    Jr315
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    Posted: Apr. 9, 2017 - 2:30 PM ET #10

    Thanks Mikey,  as of now I have no clue.  I prefer to wait until the field is finalized.
    Reply
    Thanks Mikey,  as of now I have no clue.  I prefer to wait until the field is finalized.
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