The Sam F Davis --Analysis and Picks

Grade III, dirt, 1-1/16 miles, $250K

Hard to believe that in 1999 this race had a purse of $25,000 with a whopping increase to $40,000 in 2000 to a whoppier $250K today. The Davis profile has been raised almost exponentially the past few years making it one of the better of the lesser TC races that sets up for the big ones. Winner here can head anywhere, like the FLA Derby or Arkansas Derby, so pay attention to how the best of the contenders might deal with the bigger names down the Road.

Past winners are marquee names, including last year, Destin; Bluegrass Cat, Any Given Saturday, Burning Roma and General Quarters. All of these went on to have great careers.

More than normal chatter on Covers this week about this prelim to the prelims, but with good reason. Most attention centers around the big rocker, McCraken, and deservedly so as the boy has been electric, and undefeated in three career starts. However, as we saw last week with Classic Empire (foot abscess discovered after the race), the smell of upset is in the Tampa air with No Dozing, Wild Shot, Tapwrit, State of Honor and Fact Finding looming.

#8 McCraken…….For many, just knowing he is the son of Ghostzapper is enough to add points to the handicapping report card with the colt, so far,  living up to his Daddy’s rep. He’s won his first three career races in style, with wins in the Kentucky Jockey Club (with Wild Shot in tow) and the Street Sense.

Darn good connections with Ian Wilkes doling out the feed and savvy vet Brian Hernandez holding the strap. While this is McCraken’s three-year old debut, off layoff since November, his work coming in is steady and professional.

Keep in mind, as good as he is, and if this matters to your handicapping, that this is his first trip away from Churchill Downs laying tracks on a totally different strip after three races. 2-1 on the ML, and, perhaps that is generous. My guess is that he can run on gravel, if he had to.

#3 Fact Finding…….I liked his profile going into the Holy Bull, but Pletcher scratched for this race. A very typical Todd move as the trainer does this at least once or twice each year with a potential TC popper in an effort to find a solid spot (Revolutionary and Materiality come to mind, if I am not mistaken). Out of underrated The Factor, Fact Finding is 3 for 3 lifetime with this race his stakes debut. FF’s Beyer’s aren’t exactly falling off the page, but this is the first time he goes past a mile with his style looking primed for the added footage, as well as a bump in his speed figure. Pletcher has won this race 6 times, including 4 of the last 7 and 6 of the last 11 affairs. Very good work in prep for this and Todd’s go-to, Jonny V, handles the chores. The jock has won 3 of these….. FF at 9-2 ML.

#6 Wild Shot…..Along with No Dozing, he has next best Beyer’s to McC in this race. A lot to like in this Trappe Shot colt, who finished 2^nd to McCraken in the KyJC. He also finished a very game third to Classic Empire in the G-II BC Futurity at Keeneland, less than 4L back. Trainer George Arnold can be a sharpster in spots like this. For me, I have to think about which Robbie Albarado will show up today. Note…Brian Hernandez was the pilot in Wild Shot’s BC Futurity race. 5-1 ML.

#9 No Dozing…..A real brawler in four career races for trainer Arnaud Delacour, who is killing it at 23% wins here….27% last year. With local hero Daniel Centeno in the irons, there is a lot to like. Best speed next to the fave and work makes me think he is primed for run today. Fourth in the BC Futurity to Classic Empire (4L back) and second in the Remsen to Derby contender Mo Town when Centeno was in the seat. At 4-1 on the ML, this is a prime candidate for upset. Jockey/trainer combine for 29% wins in 2016-17 at this track and totaled 28% wins in 109 races last year. One other plus note….this is the 5^th different track he’s raced at, so don’t fear the ship, if you cap travel.

#7 Tapwrit…..While 8-1 on the ML, I cannot dismiss a Tapit colt with Todd mentoring and JL Ortiz riding (25% wins with Pletch in 2016-17). A $1.2 million yearling seller, he has won two in a row (3 career races) and showing improvement. I will not say that Fact Finding is the set up for this guy, or vice versa, because I don’t think Pletcher plays that game, but do not be surprised if Taprwrit and Fact Finding take two of the four top spots…including the winner’s circle. Note…..Todd saves potential star, Battalion Runner, from this to go to the FLA Derby.

#1 State of Honor and #2 King and His Court……Mark Casse saddles these two with each having a chance for some. SOH (Blinkers On) hit an 83 last out in the Macho Man, his first venture out of Woodbine and on to the dirt, and finished second in the $100K Macho Man at Gulfstream last time. Leparoux pilots.

K&HC, a gelding, knocker via Court Vision, is a campaigner with 9 races under his saddle (9/3-0-4). He has won two in a row with vet Boulanger, today’s rider, winning both. His first race outside of Toronto. These two are solid and should render consideration for a taste or two.

#5 Six Gun Salute…..Laugh out loud at 30-1 from Colonial John, but in trying to read between the lines, this guy just might be a live Longie for a smidgeon. Ion Hardy trains with Morales on the whip, he lost a race by nearly 57 lengths two back. However, I will give points for jock-trainer at 36% in 2016-17 and a nice improvement in the Pasco where he found his late legs, which will come in handy in this one where the pace is expected to be brisk. Ya never know!

 

My picks:

#3 Fact Finding to win and place…..in Todd I trust? This will be a real test for McCraken in his 3-year old debut.

$16 exacta straight: 3-8

$8 exacta wheel: 3/1, 6, 7, 9

$3 tri wheel: 3/1,6,7,8,9/1,3,5,6,7,8,9

$1 tri wheel: 8/1, 3, 6, 9/1, 3, 6, 7, 9

GL TO ALL!

 

Finishes 8-7-1-3  McCraken wins!

Nice run by McCraken....a little bit of a ho-hum affair, but a beautifully measured close by Brian Hernandez.

McCraken looks like he can go the distance, but there was no serious challenge by another closer  here to show the true measure.

mikey   excellent  read,write up   i believe  its one more  week of 10 /4/2/1  then on 25th of this month ,the stakes go up...wilkes  got  his  best 3 yr old.  mccraken  off a layoff and on tricky tampa surface  was  pretty good..  his next race  will be stiffer test.   the san vicente is  today... no points  but nice 3 yr olds..

Thanks Philly......

actually three preps next weekend.....the el Camino Real, which usually yields a horse or two on Derby day; the Southwest, on President's day at Oak Lawn; and the Hyacinth.....the ten-pointer for Japanese horses.

The following week is when it really gets serious: The Risen Star at FG (Feb. 25) with the FLA Derby and Gotham on March 4.

Tampa Bay Derby on March 11 along with the San Felipe the same day.

Lots to look forward in these great preps.......