The Risen Star--Analysis and Picks

Fairgrounds, G-II, 1-1/16 miles, dirt, $400,000

One of the best of the stepping stones with some of these to earn a trip to the Louisiana Derby….. a litany of great horses coming out of this race in the past. Gun Runner, in 2016, Mucho Macho Man, in 2011, the electric Pyro (I had the luck of being at FG that day with TYGER MYKE), Friesen Fire and Lawyer Ron are past winners.

No shortage of talent in this 14 horse field, and, at first look, a race that appears somewhat wide open and just might be begging for a bomber. Let’s see….Mo Town, Guest Suite, Cool Arrow, Untrapped and a whole bunch of boys ready to bust out at long odds make the field in what should be a fast-paced race.

 

#1 Girvin……A lot of talent with this Tale of Ekati colt out of a Mailbu Moon mare, he looks like he might be able to run all day. Trainer Joe Sharp, no stranger to the winner’s circle with 19% wins, teams up with savvy vet Brian Hernandez, who seems to have taken the same “second-life” juice as Mike Smith. First time going over one mile, after winning his debut race in driving fashion at 6F, Girvin ran well on the turf in race number two of his career. At 6-1 ML, which might be a tad generous, all things considered, this is a huge day for the lad against some decent competition. If he makes the grade, we might see some big noise down the road.

#2 Untrapped….At 10-1 ML, after his nice run in the slop-laden LeComte finishing second to Guest Suite, I wonder if the track capper had one too many hurricanes prior to putting his pencil to the form to come up with these odds as I thought he’d be 6-1. Nonetheless, this is far better talent than the last and this will be a big step forward if he runs well. Trainer Asmussen has won this race two times with Ricky Santana cracking the whip today on a colt that is 3/1-2-0 career. A contender for a piece if he gets in position to drive in the final furlong.

#3 Local Hero….Another Asmussen, and would-be “A” player at 4-1, the Hard Spun colt killed in his maiden win last out winning by 7-1/4 L. He led by as many as 10 before Frenchie Geroux parallel parked him near the end. Looking at the form of that race, as well as his work coming in here, tells me the 4-1 line is legit. Geroux grabs the strap again today, and with this crowd, he will need to run a similar tactical race as he did winning this with Gun Runner last year by getting out, slowing the traffic behind, then methodically taking him home.

#4 Arklow…..When I see the combo of Shaun Bridgmohan and Brad Cox at this track, I take note because these guys have earned their keep at Fairgrounds. Arklow, despite finishing 4^th to Guest Suite in the LeComte, is improving losing that race by just 1-3/4 L and finishing 2^nd two back to Takeoff, who runs in this one. The Arch colt looks like he is ready to advance again today with a very professional work pattern. Cox is 26% wins and Shaun has won this with Pyro. At 15-1, do yourself a favor and consider for exotics and, with some solid racing luck, maybe the upset. Note: Hernandez off to ride Girvin, but in the world of the backstretch, this might mean nothing.

#5 Shareholder Value…..Take another look at the LeComte. It was an extremely competitive affair with Shareholder Value finishing 5^th losing by just 2-1/4 L.  Tom Amoss has done a nice job with the son of Uncle Moe as evidenced by his mornings for this. Shaun B takes off the mount for a jock I think you will hear a lot about in the near future, Mitch Murrell. Amoss is 26% wins with 32% on dirt, so consider this factoid for some. At 15-1 ML and a late run by the colt looming, a nice slice isn’t out of the question, if not upset.

#6 Guest Suite…..He won the LeComte, but there were so many crawling up his Heine that any number could have hit the circle…hence the bland 6-1 ML? Nonetheless, the Quality Road gelding did the job that day and his competitive spirit must be taken into consideration. Trainer Neil Howard won this race with Comic Strip in 1998. Jockey Robby Albarado, a three time winner. The boy is 5/3-0-2 lifetime and looks like he might outrun his odds. Consider for win off his LeComte and three boffo works coming in.

#8 Cool Arrow….The second of Joe Sharp’s entries, Cool Arrow (Into Mischief) has been a good one. At 15-1 ML, he deserves a look-see. Lifetime, he is 6/3-2-0 winning the $300K Springboard Mile out of post 12 at Remington last December. He finished 2^nd in the $300K Spendthrift at Churchill last October to TC contender, Warrior’s Club (Lukas). Making his 3-year old debut at 15-1 ML, crafty jock Saez, who won this with Friesen Fire, takes the mount. While the layoff, coupled with the field, might be a concern, the steady work is a consideration in favor.

#9 Mo Town….Uncle Mo keeps pumping them out with the winner of the Remsen another potential Derby candidate. Trained by Anthony Dutrow, Johnny Velazquez leaves the Pletcher crib to ride the 7/2 ML fave. His 3-year old debut, Mo Town hit a 101 speed figure in the Remsen to win by 2-1/2 L after winning his maiden by 7-1/2. Challenge today will be the outside horses, along with Cool Arrow, Local Hero, Untrapped and, possibly, Arklow, pressing Mo midway. This is a huge test for the colt, but if he passes, he will be a marquee name on the Trail.

#10 Takeoff….Make no mistake, this guy is a contender today with pilot Leparoux jetting out of the 10 hole and waiting for a spot to pounce. Takeoff was 3^rd in the LeComte, down by 1-3/4, and this will be a much more difficult task. However, this is doable and, at 10-1, ML, he is a must consider for a major chunk, if not the win, assuming Julien keeps him focused. Great connections in owner John Oxley and trainer Casse. Check out his work pattern. The $550K Keeneland sale son of Arch looks more than ready for this. Big shot today.

#14 So Conflated…..Here is where it gets tricky. O’Neill sends out from Cali a great colt in a race he can win, the winner of the Cal Derby (Tapeta surface), flies in Mario G, but draws the 14 post. Is he even going to run today? Let’s see, but if he does, it will be a tall task to get the Eskendreya colt in contention. However, he does come from off the pace and, if Mario can bring out the precision tools, we might see something special from the kid. O’Neill won this with Notional in 2009, so put that in your pipe.

#11 Sorry Erik ….The Desormeux Bros. (Kent aboard) with a decent one here claimed from O’Neill at 30-1, Keith is an La. sharpie despite his western ties.

#12 Horse Fly….D Wayne’s Mineshaft colt at 30-1 with plenty of work needed to cash. Mena sits.

#13 It’s Your Nickel…..A nice colt who competes for Kenny McPeek with Jimmy Graham up, he will be in the mix, I believe, but nor for much more.

 My picks:

This is a killer to cap with so many so evenly matched and si early in their careers. I desperately want to play against Mo Town…and I will.

#6 Guest Suite to win and place. His form coming in and work at the track put me over the top, but any one of 6 or 7 can win this. Hoping to get at least 4-1 over 3-1 Mo? PS: It pains me to pick a horse ridden by Robby.

Upsetters? Takeoff, Arklow, Shareholder Value

$16 exacta: 6-9

$8 exacta: 9-6

$6 exacta: 6, 9/2, 3, 4, 5,10

$4 exacta: 6, 9/1, 14

$1 tri: 6.9/2,3,4,5,6,9,10/1,2,3,4,5,6,9,10,14 and hope for bombers underneath.

GL TO ALL AND A SHOUT OUT TO TYGRE MIKE!

 

 

 

 

 

One note for Cool Arrow backers, if it makes a difference. He was scratched from the Southwest for this.

GL Mike, I could make a case for many of these. I was really impressed with Cool Arrow winning the Remington. Going to take a shot with him if the price is right. ML 15-1 but I think the horse will get bet. Big test for him. 

Well Cool Arrow is not getting bet at all. 10 minutes to post and the horse is 35-1. Still got to play him. 

Got on the wrong Sharp horse.

Did Cool Arrow get pulled up? Ran dead last.

1-2-3-6

Girvin with a big win and great ride by Hernandez!

KURSCH...not sure what happened with Cool Arrow. Real bad trip for Guest Suite, wh finished 4th behind Girvin, Local Hero, Untrapped.

big payoffs

For Girvin backers, Hernandez is the rider for undefeated McCrakin. I wonder if Geroux will pick up Girvin down the road?

KURSCH...I just checked the chart. Cool Arrow went wide twice, then "faltered"....finished about 35 out. Mo town "tired".

Guest Suite behind a wall early, a back a bit, went wide twice, rallied from 7 to 4th spot.

Girvin was in it rom gather start. Terrific run

93 Beyer for Girvin today, but I bet Gormly and AA have 100 or more going into the Derby

Thanks for the update Mike.

Hey Guys'

VET

Lot of tout for Mastery on Twitter among many of the racing pundits. I just have a feeling that American Anthem night be a real surprise as they begin to stretch out.

Starting to wonder about Classic Empire's health