The el Camino Real- Analysis and Picks

Purse $200,000, for 3yos, at 1 1/8 mile (Tapeta)

A way-under-the radar Derby prep, the race occassionally yields a runner the first Saturday in May. More known for the great trainers who show up with their ‘B’ and ‘C’ players, including Hollendorfer, O’Neill and Baffert, if you look at its history, there are not a lot of notable horses, but a few stand out.

Cavonnier, for one, won this in 1996, then went on to win the Santa Anita Derby. Perhaps, what he is most famous for is his photo finish loss to Grindstone in the 1996  KY Derby with many, still today, arguing that the win was his. Others of note from this are Daddy Nose Best, Bwana Bull, Chocolate Candy and Uncle Denny.

The 2017 edition presents a lukewarm 7-horse field with a few glimpse of talent, but nothing that shines. Let’s start with the ML favorites.

#5 Sheer Flattery……Jerry Hollendorfer enters the 7/5 favorite in a race the trainer has won 6 times in the past 15 years, including three years ago with the snappy Tamarando. A very talented son of Flatter, Sheer Flattery finished third in the G-III Lewis at SA last time 3-3/4L back to Royal Mo with his late 4-wide trip contributing some ground. His recent pilot, Mike Smith, stays under the umbrella in rainy SoCal for this one with the reliable Frankie Alvarado, who won this in 2000, manning the leather. Note that Frank and Jerry have a solid history. This week alone, they combine for 10/4-1-1. I think the animal needs to stay rock steady with the jock keeping him straight ahead and away from the grandstand side. Questions for me: wheeling back after 2 weeks and first time on synthetic.

#3 Ann Arbor Eddie…..Out of Cal-bred stalwart Square Eddie, this Cali-youngster might be speed-of-speed and could be in L’vlle in May. A record of 4/3-0-1 lifetime, he doesn’t appear to me to have come close to hitting his stride, so today is a could-be. Trainer O’Neill and his guy, Mario G, won this last year on Frank Conversation, the first win in the el Camino for the combo. With the colt’s only blemish a third place finish in the G-III Bob Hope at Del Mar last November when he bobbled at the start, Eddie looks ready for run today in what might be a fight to the finish with Sheer Flattery. Note: Also first time on synthetic, but Square Eddie’s kids can.

#4 Tribal Storm…..Loved his daddy, Papa Clem (Smart Strike), who finished 4^th in the Kentucky Derby and won the Arkansas Derby.  Long forgotten is that Clem earned his bones in California as a two-year old before going on to a great career. A load of talent for trainer Moger Jr. (18% wins), Storm is 3/2-0-1 finishing third to me-likey Ann Arbor Eddie in the Cal Cup Derby last out. In that race, he rolled into the final furlong a bit tight, which might have been the difference to move up a length or two. Talented jock Abel Cedillo rides. I think we’ll see a solid effort today and a chance for the trophy, if the favorites go south. Nice effort in the morning coming in.

#7 Kona Dreams….I’m searching for a closer, or at least one that can run pass the dead in the stretch, but there is not a lot in this field that might chase the two faves. In trying to read between the lines, I think this colt out of TC contender, during his time, Midshipman, comes closest for me. KD’s history in four races has shown that he has been held back a bit, but I have to think he can power on, if allowed. Trainer George Papaprodromou, whose name is as long as the stretch at Belmont, is capable with a 23% wins when shipping. Sharp work for this. Blinkers on and journey man Israel Ocampo riding. Take a look for a slice.

#2 More Power to Him..…Finished 2^nd in the Cal Derby and a nice Tiznow-connected colt with a lifetime of 6/2-1-1. Trainer Faith Taylor has done a nice job with him and I like the steady work pattern coming in. Capable jock Alejandro Gomez, who has had success with the boy, rides today. This Cal-bred fits with most of these and looks like he has the chance to fire for some.

#6 Colonel Samsen…..Last we heard from him, the son of Colonel John was finishing 22 back to Gormly in the Sham. Trainer Hardy wheeled him back two weeks later in the Cal Derby when he finished a serviceable third. No doubt there is talent, especially via the sire and the pedigree for the distance, but this horse has been all over the place in his eight career starts. However, he is 8/2-1-2, which tells me that if this guy gets it together with advanced company that he might have success moving forward. I don’t think today is the day the light goes on, but let’s see what happens. Ricardo Gonzales grabs the strap and that is a good thing. Might be worth a buck or two to hit the board and to include in exotics at 10-1 ML.

 

 

My picks:

#3 Ann Arbor Eddie to win and place……I won’t consider this a big upset…. I really think if he passes the test today, we’ll hear more from him during the Trail.

$16 exacta straight: 3-5

$8 exacta wheel: 3/2,4,7

$5 tri: 3/5/2,4,6,7

$2 tri: 5/3/2,4,6,7

 

very nice  read  mikey  im looking at  tribal power,and colonel samsen  to run ok.. o neill and gutierrez  look the best on paper...3,4,6 bx for me  and in  other gimmicks. not in love with  hollendorfer chalk  today......   80 per cent  rain forecast for mondays  southwest...catalano  charge  will try to run them off there feet again in the mud..  good field.... good luck   mikey

Good luck Philly....an interesting SW made more interesting by the weather. Looking forward to your thoughts tomorrow and Monday in the race.

PS: 67 degrees here in Chicago today. I just might go walking down Clark Street Buck Naked and don't care if I get arrested!

Mike I think your on the right horse. People might of forgot that O'Neill won the 2012 Kentucky Derby and Preakness with I'll Have Another. If memory serves me he did not run in the Belmont due to a bad leg. Horse had a huge chance to win the Triple Crown. Also O'Neill won the 2016 Kentucky Derby with Nyquist. In this world of trainers Pletcher, Baffort and Brown seems like O'Neill is never mentioned as a big time trainer.

Hi Kursch

The race was a total RatF*** from the start with Sheer Flattery never getting out of the gate, then finishing last; and Ann Arbor Eddie, clearly the best horse in the race, bumping and grinding, then getting dropped to 4th place.

Zakaroff, the 49-1 shot wins paying nearly $100....

Finishes 1-4-2-3.....$284 exacta & $1822 tri

Just a terrible race, especially for a Derby prep.