Posted:
#1
More plays from Santa Anita Charles Town Classic, and potentially Keeneland (depending on conditions) to come.
GL to all!
Aqueduct race 3:
FROSTMOURNE is gonna be very tough to beat in here making his first start as a 3yo after an impressive 2yo campaign. Gets lasix for the first time for Clement and has a ton of room to improve after being victorious in 2/3 races despite unsettled green trips. He isn't necessarily bred to love the yielding ground and I think he won his last race on class alone despite the soft ground and horrible trip checking back repeatedly. Irad chooses over riding back on ROYAL BY NATURE. The other contender I like is BIRD'S EYE VIEW for Mike Dini. The turf course hasn't been playing much to the speed horses so that with the added distance should give him a shot down the stretch. He's been facing tougher and with SECRETARY AT WAR first vs winners and the other two contenders first off a layoff, I expect this one to outrun his odds.
FROSTMOURNE should be a very short price, but if he looks great in the paddock and on the track, I think a win bet above even money is a good investment in this small field.
Exacta: 5-3
ex box: 3,5
Aqueduct race 7:
The contention doesn't look too deep in what should be an 8 horse field in this statebred allowance. JACALA is coming off a nice claiming win for Steve Klesaris at Gulfstream, but I question him at this 1 1/16 distance, and don't like how he hasn't worked since. Also, if not for a flawless ride by Javy I think Summer Scamp would've beat him. MR HARLAN is 1-20 in his career and has been knocking at the door while steadily improving since going to the Linda Rice barn, who is having a great meet. Very tough to back a horse with this career record, but he seems to be going in the right direction. In last out, rallied from last to sweep by the field besides the gate to wire winner who had it all his way. It drives me nuts how Rice seems to scratch any horse she feels isn't the most likely winner, so if this one stays in I expect her to run big.
The horse I give the edge to is CLUTCH CARGO, who gets back on the turf for Mike Hushion. Turf is this horse's preferred surface, and I like the way he finished last time on this course. Clearly the one with the most upside, and knowing how sharp the money usually is in NY, I fully expect this one to take a lot of play and maybe even be the post time favorite. The field has a couple sprinters that should give enough pace for the top contenders to run into effectively. If MR HARLAN is scratched, I will be win betting the 1.
ex box: 1,10
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