Posted:
#1
Below are picks and analysis for this amazing Travers day card:
Saturday Saratoga:
Race 1: Tough race with a bunch of firsters with big pedigrees. Bottom line, a $1M purchase with Chad and Javy on board on Travers day MUST be live. GOOD MAGIC must be some kinda colt and I doubt if you're the owner groups that you debut in this spot to lose. The tote should say a lot so we'll wait and see, but I'm inclined to like this one on top and possibly a single to start the p5. My next choices would be Pletcher and HAZIT, and I think the Brad Cox Irad horse HIGH NORTH looks to be very live and should be well meant.
8-2-6-5
WIN: 8
EXACTA: 8/2,6 key box. 8/2,5,6
Race 2: The Chad Brown likely favorite FOCUS GROUP did it very impressively in his maiden win closing with a giant rush off of slow fractions. With a cutback of 1.5f you would think this talented colt should be flying late. As much as I want to take this one on top, at the end of the day it's not worth the bet at a short price especially against a deep, much more experienced field like this. The only two horses interested in early speed look to be inside with WAR BOND and MEMORIES OF PETER. Of the two, I absolutely want MEMORIES OF PETER who endured all challenges in his last effort and after watching the replay is a much more impressive effort than it seems. WAR BOND is stepping up in class off a sub par effort losing to a longshot horse and doesn't seem to be competitive on paper, but as much as I want to totally toss this horse, Mike Maker has done sneaky stuff like this too many times, and my gut tells me a better effort is in store. SURPRISE TWIST is my top pick and looks to be the wise guy selection in here as I've seen others high on this horse. I agree with them, and think his last effort was more impressive than it looked along with the figure being dressed down in my opinion. They went very slow throughout in this race which led to some slower than expected figures, and SURPRISE TWIST was really the only horse doing the late running. He got that much needed experience first against winners, galloped out impressively, looks to want this extra distance, should be more forwardly placed after a rough run from the rail, races at 115lb (7lb less than last), and has the most eligibility to improve while being in very sharp form. Those are a lot of reasons to like this horse, and I don't expect to get the 6/1ml. RICHMOND STREET is a horse I want to like so much, but I just can't take on top after his latest effort even with the layoff. I'll use him in sequences, but I need to see a big effort before backing again. HOLIDAY BONUS is very respected on the morning line, and I can't see why. Motion so good in turf routes and I won't be surprised if this one beats me, but I did not see anything in his last start worthy of betting back, and is definitely the logical I'll play against.
3-2-9-8
**WIN: 3**
EXACTA: 2,3 box
Race 3: A lot of guessing in a race like this. I'll break this one into three categories of contenders; Of the first timers, my best bet would be STRIKE ME DOWN for Motion and Rosario. Of the starters with a race at the distance, I have to choose HE TAKES CHARGE over NEEPAWA for the Casse entries. First reason is the clear value difference, also NEEPAWA has to deal with the outside post this time around and HE TAKES CHARGE did do his best running late and galloped out well, so maybe second time around he can make a big jump and live up to that huge purchase price. Of the horses stretching out off a debut prep, I want Billy Mott's horse with Jose Ortiz FORTUNE COOKIE. He's had ample time off after his debut where the effort is a bit dressed down in my opinion, with very slow fractions set and a gate to wire winner for Ward by 5 lengths who came back to win first vs winners. CHIRPING also shouldn't be left off tickets. Of these three angles to go with, I would take FORTUNE COOKIE as my top pick, but this is a must spread race for multis.
6-8-5-10-2
Race 4: I really don't have anything creative in this race, as my best bet would be THREEFIVEINDIA, who ran very nice 3 wide throughout to finish a game second to a much best horse on a cranked effort. THREEFIVEINDIA was somewhat geared down late but was still finishing with energy and looks to be coming into peak form. He should be close enough to the lead to not really have to worry about an unfavorable pace scenario, and I trust should have great kick late cutting back a half furlong. There looks to be a good amount of early foot in here, and if the pace gets hot there could be a good deal of fading horses late, so after my top pick I'm gonna look to pick up some pieces with OSTROLENKA, STICKSTATELY DUDE, and SPARTIATUS. If the contrary happens for a pace, LEX VEGAS looms a win threat for the struggling Brian Lynch barn, and could be used as a backup to the top choice.
4-2-9-7-3
Race 5: The horse to beat and most likely winner is CLOONTIA, who has proven to win off the pace of a loose leader which is what could happen here. CERISE'S PRINCE seems to be a lot of sharp handicappers' pick and is expected to be speed of speed and carry it. I think with the presence of ROYAL SON and LIEUTENANT COLONEL (who looks to be a rabbit for Mott here) it will ensure a hot early pace and at 1 1/16 on the mellon I dont want to put much stock on a speed horse in this scenario. I would take a shot with SYCAMORE LANE for Bill Mott off over a two year layoff. When you get into layoffs of this extent, I almost have to take it as a positive that Mott chooses a Travers undercard race to unveil him after all this time and all the spots you could pick if you deemed fit and ready to race. He also throws what appears to be a rabbit in the race and adds blinkers for the first time which should help ensure the duties. After those two opinions, there are many ways to go, none of which I'm overly confident in.
2-4-10-8-1
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