6/1 ml. recency (fitness), breeding, trainer. baby girls five and half on dirt first timer from the fence not desirable but could help her and make her get aggressive. playing this race as not having any supahstahs based on my looksie. nice consistent set of spins down at Belmont with two from the gate and one at 5/8ths two back for trainer that is 22% with 2YO, 18% first out, and 24% in MSW. sire is 12% in debut and dam only win was dirt sprint (83). 6/7 sibs won on dirt (the other a young filly 0/2 so far on green) with high fig of 102 in dirt sprint and fairly decent quality overall. doesn't need to be a G1 winner friday just get out there and keep trying. 0.75 units.
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race 5
1 WP
6/1 ml. recency (fitness), breeding, trainer. baby girls five and half on dirt first timer from the fence not desirable but could help her and make her get aggressive. playing this race as not having any supahstahs based on my looksie. nice consistent set of spins down at Belmont with two from the gate and one at 5/8ths two back for trainer that is 22% with 2YO, 18% first out, and 24% in MSW. sire is 12% in debut and dam only win was dirt sprint (83). 6/7 sibs won on dirt (the other a young filly 0/2 so far on green) with high fig of 102 in dirt sprint and fairly decent quality overall. doesn't need to be a G1 winner friday just get out there and keep trying. 0.75 units.
race 2 - passing. wanted to try something here but will pass thinking it might be a case of them all being so horrid it is chaos or a odds on winner by default.
race 2 - passing. wanted to try something here but will pass thinking it might be a case of them all being so horrid it is chaos or a odds on winner by default.
12/1 ml. pattern, late speed, pace. playing this race as a potential pace duel up front creating an opportunity for a horse to nail them all late. horse could stay chilly on the tote with other names in here and the weak effort last out. i'm willing to give him a shot 2nd off the bench because a) no class drop in his return race, b) no suspicious drop today, and c) trainer is a sizzling 31% 2nd off the pine with a break of 180+ (sample size legit of 29 stiffs), and d) gets a big jock upgrade from that last one. two back ran 88 off the pace at 7/8ths trouble was legit ("impeded betw 1/16p") prolly woulda run a 90. three back an 88 nice win off the pace at 7/8ths. friday he goes shorter but may get that pace setup he would enjoy. only 8 spins as a 5YO gelding he might have a little bit more he could show and his last two of 2016 would make him very competitive here. i'll take a shot. 1.00 units.
race 4
4 WP
12/1 ml. pattern, late speed, pace. playing this race as a potential pace duel up front creating an opportunity for a horse to nail them all late. horse could stay chilly on the tote with other names in here and the weak effort last out. i'm willing to give him a shot 2nd off the bench because a) no class drop in his return race, b) no suspicious drop today, and c) trainer is a sizzling 31% 2nd off the pine with a break of 180+ (sample size legit of 29 stiffs), and d) gets a big jock upgrade from that last one. two back ran 88 off the pace at 7/8ths trouble was legit ("impeded betw 1/16p") prolly woulda run a 90. three back an 88 nice win off the pace at 7/8ths. friday he goes shorter but may get that pace setup he would enjoy. only 8 spins as a 5YO gelding he might have a little bit more he could show and his last two of 2016 would make him very competitive here. i'll take a shot. 1.00 units.
i see five or six horses in this one that look like they want to be up front. chad's chalkie yes has the figs but i think he might be vulnerable here. that 94 debut at AQ on dirt rated good won by open lenghts not sold that fig is legit. last out ran quite evenly late he still has yet to actually pass horses. i'll try and beat him. horse that concerns me the most IF he likes dirt is the 5. you look at his blood and would ask why on earth they put him on turf he had a couple in his tree popping triple digits on dirt. i almost played him as he did train on it but he lacked effort in his last three i have to see if he is damaged goods mentally or physically so if he beats me oh well it happens.
i see five or six horses in this one that look like they want to be up front. chad's chalkie yes has the figs but i think he might be vulnerable here. that 94 debut at AQ on dirt rated good won by open lenghts not sold that fig is legit. last out ran quite evenly late he still has yet to actually pass horses. i'll try and beat him. horse that concerns me the most IF he likes dirt is the 5. you look at his blood and would ask why on earth they put him on turf he had a couple in his tree popping triple digits on dirt. i almost played him as he did train on it but he lacked effort in his last three i have to see if he is damaged goods mentally or physically so if he beats me oh well it happens.
6/1 ml. recency (fitness), breeding, trainer. baby girls five and half on dirt first timer from the fence not desirable but could help her and make her get aggressive. playing this race as not having any supahstahs based on my looksie. nice consistent set of spins down at Belmont with two from the gate and one at 5/8ths two back for trainer that is 22% with 2YO, 18% first out, and 24% in MSW. sire is 12% in debut and dam only win was dirt sprint (83). 6/7 sibs won on dirt (the other a young filly 0/2 so far on green) with high fig of 102 in dirt sprint and fairly decent quality overall. doesn't need to be a G1 winner friday just get out there and keep trying. 0.75 units.
3rd at 6/1.
Quote Originally Posted by atlasshrugged:
race 5
1 WP
6/1 ml. recency (fitness), breeding, trainer. baby girls five and half on dirt first timer from the fence not desirable but could help her and make her get aggressive. playing this race as not having any supahstahs based on my looksie. nice consistent set of spins down at Belmont with two from the gate and one at 5/8ths two back for trainer that is 22% with 2YO, 18% first out, and 24% in MSW. sire is 12% in debut and dam only win was dirt sprint (83). 6/7 sibs won on dirt (the other a young filly 0/2 so far on green) with high fig of 102 in dirt sprint and fairly decent quality overall. doesn't need to be a G1 winner friday just get out there and keep trying. 0.75 units.
12/1 ml. pattern, late speed, pace. playing this race as a potential pace duel up front creating an opportunity for a horse to nail them all late. horse could stay chilly on the tote with other names in here and the weak effort last out. i'm willing to give him a shot 2nd off the bench because a) no class drop in his return race, b) no suspicious drop today, and c) trainer is a sizzling 31% 2nd off the pine with a break of 180+ (sample size legit of 29 stiffs), and d) gets a big jock upgrade from that last one. two back ran 88 off the pace at 7/8ths trouble was legit ("impeded betw 1/16p") prolly woulda run a 90. three back an 88 nice win off the pace at 7/8ths. friday he goes shorter but may get that pace setup he would enjoy. only 8 spins as a 5YO gelding he might have a little bit more he could show and his last two of 2016 would make him very competitive here. i'll take a shot. 1.00 units.
mid-pack at 9/1. never got going
Quote Originally Posted by atlasshrugged:
race 4
4 WP
12/1 ml. pattern, late speed, pace. playing this race as a potential pace duel up front creating an opportunity for a horse to nail them all late. horse could stay chilly on the tote with other names in here and the weak effort last out. i'm willing to give him a shot 2nd off the bench because a) no class drop in his return race, b) no suspicious drop today, and c) trainer is a sizzling 31% 2nd off the pine with a break of 180+ (sample size legit of 29 stiffs), and d) gets a big jock upgrade from that last one. two back ran 88 off the pace at 7/8ths trouble was legit ("impeded betw 1/16p") prolly woulda run a 90. three back an 88 nice win off the pace at 7/8ths. friday he goes shorter but may get that pace setup he would enjoy. only 8 spins as a 5YO gelding he might have a little bit more he could show and his last two of 2016 would make him very competitive here. i'll take a shot. 1.00 units.
6/1 on the board. recency, pace, pattern, stamina. been over 10 weeks since we last seen her could be a bigger and stronger gal now. looking for stalk and pounce doesn't have to go to the lead and hopefully she sits chilly just off of it. 0.75 units.
race 8
2 WP
6/1 on the board. recency, pace, pattern, stamina. been over 10 weeks since we last seen her could be a bigger and stronger gal now. looking for stalk and pounce doesn't have to go to the lead and hopefully she sits chilly just off of it. 0.75 units.
6/1 on the board. recency, pace, pattern, stamina. been over 10 weeks since we last seen her could be a bigger and stronger gal now. looking for stalk and pounce doesn't have to go to the lead and hopefully she sits chilly just off of it. 0.75 units.
5th at 5/1
Quote Originally Posted by atlasshrugged:
race 8
2 WP
6/1 on the board. recency, pace, pattern, stamina. been over 10 weeks since we last seen her could be a bigger and stronger gal now. looking for stalk and pounce doesn't have to go to the lead and hopefully she sits chilly just off of it. 0.75 units.
7/1 on the tote. recency, late speed, j/t, pattern. looking for a settle and mow em down late move here. 0.75 units.
saratoga
6/1 winner
figured we hadn't seen the best of that gal showed nice acceleration and movement on the green but did not receive efficient rides to this point. looked fit and ready. two terrible top favs in my view as well so there's that
Quote Originally Posted by atlasshrugged:
race 9
8 WP
7/1 on the tote. recency, late speed, j/t, pattern. looking for a settle and mow em down late move here. 0.75 units.
saratoga
6/1 winner
figured we hadn't seen the best of that gal showed nice acceleration and movement on the green but did not receive efficient rides to this point. looked fit and ready. two terrible top favs in my view as well so there's that
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