Posted:
#1
Keeneland Race 5:
race 5:
KISS THE TOAD is the deserving favorite in a salty bunch of 3yo turf sprinters. He has reason to legitimately improve with the addition of blinkers after drifting in late and getting worn down. Given his running style and previous times/speed figs, if he does improve it will take a big race out of someone to beat him. The main contenders include two promising Tom Proctor horses in CARIBOU CLUB and KEEP TALKING as well as Mark Casse's ANCIENT WARFARE and Wesley Ward's BOUND FOR NOWHERE. ANCIENT WARFARE should be the horse coming the hardest late, and passed everyone but Mo Maverick in his last start at 7.5f at Gulfstream. This was off a 6 month layoff, and a sharper effort today with some pace to run into could do the trick. Leparoux takes the ride back and the barn goes back to what worked first out. BOUND FOR NOWHERE is a big purchase from Ward who owns and trains this one. His first start at Turfway was a jog but against nothing. Tough post and this is alot to handle in his first start against winners and only second start of career. Can't leave off of any deep tickets though.
The two Proctor horses look to be the toughest in here and both seem to be very well meant. KEEP TALKING adds blinkers after what was a nightmare trip where he just couldnt find any clear headway for the majority of the stretch, and when he did he finished strong. Third start on form cycle and as 3yo. Jockey/trainer have great numbers together and Proctor excells with first blinkers. Sharp bullet 3f breeze on Tuesday. All engines go for this one today and the pp's scream big tote support. But the semantics of what these trainers do to throw off the betting public and how this game works is why my top pick is CARIBOU CLUB. This is his first start as a 3yo, and broke his maiden in a stakes event running into no pace last Sept. I'm going on the assumption that he has gotten much better in the offseason and with Castellano taking the ride I think this horse could run huge today at what should be a much better price. I understand this is sort of a blind poke and I could be totally overthinking it, but in a race like this at what could be an overlay price I have to take the value. Definitely give yourself some coverage especially if playing the early pick 4 where this is the final leg.
3-11-5-8
win/place: 3
exacta: 3,5,8/11. 11/3,5,8.
sequences: 3,4,5,8,11,12
Hot Forum Topics
