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KEENELAND 4/15 Analysis and Picks!!

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Prospect
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Posted: #1
Hello All,

Below is my breakdown of the card today at Keeneland, and I'll finish with the way I'd spend lets say a $100 budget in single races and for multi-race wagering. I didn't have time to do every race, and races 5 and 6 will come shortly as I'm finishing up with those two but wanted to get what I have posted. Let's see how we can do!

kee r1:
1- Take Your Guns - you could tell he didnt really know what to do while rating behind horses down chute. got nice inside trip and broke fine. has every right to improve and most likely will under this top barn. joel takes ride and has been red hot at keeneland. if this horse improves, he should be the best and has been working smooth with 4 breezes since feb18 debut. 
2- Insurgent - could be controlling speed here and is eligible to run sharper second off the winter layoff. how much better is the question, and if challenged does he try to rate (debut showed ability to pass)? Geroux stays.
3- Wild Will - Foley got a nice win going turf to dirt yesterday and looks to do the same with this one stepping way up in class of the claim. probably over his head here, maybe underneath if there's some pace.
4- Combat Controller - sat a nice trip and made nice move to take the lead but was overwhelmed by the much best fav. took a big time step in the right direction and will probably be the third choice in the betting and probably at the end of the day the best logical value in the race. McPeek off to a cold start but has two in here including a potential(?) rabbit in the 5. Albarado chooses this one but has been riding terrible thus far at keeneland.
5- Sir Ballantine - capable of getting up front and pushing the pace or sitting back. this was a horse that went for 210k on a 10k stud fee and is moving back up to a protected open maiden, but has questions whether he's fast enough to compete with the best in here. fractions were extremely slow which makes the figure look worse than it really is. runs back less than 3 weeks later and fit enough to breeze over the track last week. a very sneaky looking horse and with different owner groups and Saez riding, I think this horse could be well meant here at a big price. consider and dont leave off deep tickets.
6- Van Horn - first time on dirt and on paper this one looks a cut below. interesting given pedigree that he's never been more of a pace factor. Interested to see what kind of money this one takes. Also note he finished well in last.
7- Leading Cause - wasnt competitive in debut. watch and see.
8- Drago's Pearl - tossing the blinkers right on after having issues focusing and being very fractious in the gate. looked very green and tired down the stretch. horse could definitely have some ability but might be alot to ask for him to put it all together by today. 

Final Thoughts:
Although being able to make cases for many in here, I just think Chad has this field measured here. Debuting in a deep and classy 14 horse field earned him a world of experience and I'll trust the best connections on top. If under 3/2 I'll pass on the win bet. For a price, I think the 5 is my best value bet at which should be all if not more of his ml.
For sequences, I'm either singling or going deep and hoping for a big price to start a pick 3 or double.

1-2-4-5
win: 1
win/place: 5

 
Prospect
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Posted: #2
r2:
1- Dos Cuernos - Hancock has winners on last two cards, and didnt seem comfortable early in last after not breaking well. passed horses late for a respectable 4th, and if he gives better account of himself he could be in the money at a big price for a trainer with a barn running well.
2- Heliodoro - Broke maiden fresh two back, and has been working much sharper than any point in 2016, so all systems go today. Juarez was on for lone win, and gets class relief from last out. Gonna need a good trip and a little pace to run into.
3- Alittlevodka - Valdivia chooses the 9, but Geroux ends up being an upgrade. terrible dirt and turf/dirt numbers. Taking a pretty big drop in class, and if he can run on the dirt like his fast works suggest, could be a big contender.
4- The Right Thing - private purchase from a small barn. stepping up in class compared to previous two starts in 2017. Had a little kick while really wide throughout. Gonna need alot better to win, but in a race like this can you count it completely out?
5- Not So Quiet Man - hasnt shown any signs that point to winning today. 
6- Olivia's Brother - huge beyer improvement and looms a bounce possibility. won at a very low level and tough to endorse against winners. should figure into the early speed.
7- No Phone Joe - Gelded Thursday and now fires first time career on dirt. very sharp breeze of late and Kenneally has decent numbers turf/dirt. respected as the ml choice and Paco takes the ride. Must respect.
8- Hurrican Force - beat maiden field handily as odds on fav off the break and even looked a little green still doing it so is eligible to improve two off the break. horses from turfway havent faired too well so far, and the ones who did werent putting up flattering figures. So improving that much will be tough. Rosario attracted. Consider.
9- Swift One - was a clear second to a loaded winner 6 days ago and Ward fires him right back. not something he seems to do often, so he must feel good about beating this field today. did get a cozy trip in last, and sort of has a feeling he could get beat again by one(and one only) thats better.
10- Mykonos - tough to trust having any dirt form. Has to fire fresh off layoff from a wide post. Pass today.

Final Thoughts:
I don't particularly love this race, nor do I have any creative ideas with it. I think as long as the 3 and 7 show some early foot from that turf sprint speed they have, then the 9 should be the most likely winner, and to me it reeks of confidence from the Ward barn. Since single race win betting favorites isnt what I'm looking to do, I think the value falls in a class dropper, and my pick is the 2 Heliodoro. He should sit a nice inside stalking trip and have the most left in the lane. 

2-9-7-3
win/place: 2

 
Prospect
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Posted: #3
race 7:

1- Blofeld - Maybe third race in the barn will prove to be a better effort? I expect that, but still question whether it would be a winning effort. Interesting to see two turf works since the Tampa start..
2- Eagle - Clearly the horse for course, an undefeated 3-3 here. seems to have pace to run into today and is a deserving favorite. Didn't really have a shot from that wide post in the New Orleans. Second finish line should help his chances at passing them all today.
3- Watershed - Positive sign to see he's proven on this surface for a horse that's been on different surfaces in last few. Godolphin Kiaren and Paco are no joke connections and this is another logical choice that will be coming late. Horse didnt have much headway to feel comfortable turning it on in late stretch. Also, a couple starts last year showed that he doesnt need to be too far back early. Is this horse best going this long though? I prefer Paco on horses more involved in the pace, but tough to discount this one today. 
4- Scuba - Carmouche gets out of NY for a day to ride this one for the Walsh barn that's been running well. Looks like one that might be pointing towards something longer down the road, but should be an early pace presence.
5- Taketothestreets - Horse is getting better and could sit a nice cozy stalking trip. First time in stakes company and looks like it's probably over his head here. 7yo likely underneath at best.
6- Bird Song - Last race was strong, as GP wasn't playing to a ridiculous speed bias that day as in many other days from the winter meet. Needs to do it around two turns and get an extra furlong. Big questions to answser at a short price. Very nice 59.2 5f bullet last week and looks ready to rock.
7- Conquest Enforcer - Connections pass on the optimistic Maker's Mile yesterday for this. Cant imagine anything else but a direct send to the lead. Rosario gets the ride, which is interesting with Prat in town. Maybe cause he was entered in that Friday card when Prat wasn't here? Either way, winning on dirt hasn't been proven yet, but the horse is clearly well thought of and well meant here. 
8- Frammento - Dead closer that looks to go directly inside to the back of the pack and ake one big run late. The more pace the better, and this one should be picking up some pieces late. Gonna need a total meltdown for a shot at the win spot, but underneath at a nice price is well within reach.

Final Thoughts: 
This is the stakes race on the card I like the least. I could see the race being stolen by a front runner, and I could also see the race totally falling apart with so many questions in the field. If there's an all button race in the all stakes p4, it's this one. If you have strong opinions later and since the field isnt too big, probably not a bad idea. Gotta take a stand somewhere, and at the 9f distance, I dont wanna trust speed to hold. I think there is a better chance that this race falls apart given all the unproven angles in the field. Eagle should be right there when the dust clears, and although Scuba could be pointing towards more distance, the horse might be the most talented in the field. I'll take the 4 on top here at what should be around 4 or 5/1.

4-2-7-8
sequences: 2,4. all.
win/place: 4

 
Prospect
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Posted: #4
race 8:

1- Ruby Notion - Other Ward entry with Joel on the rail. If I'm going with Rosario in one of these, I wouldn't want anything more than a pricey rail trip and hope for the best. Nobody does it better. He did it last week when Albarado totally blew the ride on Green Mask and opened up the lane for him on Holding Gold. Horse took a giant step up in first start as a 4yo, but is gonna need to take another one to not only beat her stablemate but the rest of the field as well. 
2- Triple Chelsea - Expect a sharper performance fresh. Working sharp and maybe more involved early today? I think the extra half furlong will serve her well, and I wouldnt leave off deep tickets at a price.
3- Nobody's Fault - Impossible to endorse over the 5.
4- Exaggerated - Horse has a very live look today off the long layoff. Toss last race and she's probably the biggest threat to knock off Lady Aurelia. Prat had options and chose to be here which is a very positive sign for me (my personal favorite jockey). Delacour looks to mean business today with a lot of live entries. Defending champ probably doesnt stand chance at seeing the 6/1ml.
5- Rapid Rhythm - Like the 10, stepping up after consecutive wins against lighter stakes company. Very impressive in last race circling the field from the back off much slower fractions than her previous. The more pace the better, and she will be coming hard down the stretch. Another with a super live look.
7- Lady Aurelia - Working lights out in Kentucky, and is the deserving favorite today. Just a matter if you want to take a horse at even money in a 12 horse 5.5f turf sprint. Gonna need to be worn down early in order to get by late. Blinkers back off adds even more appeal.
8- Lots o' Lex - under at best.
9- Bibby - under at best.
10- Pretty Perfection - Respect Breen a great deal and is lights out with turf sprints. A step up in class after three straight at GP. Should be a big factor late but has to come up with a career best to beat a much saltier field than her last few. Tough to trust as much outside Florida, but also tough to leave out of a sequence.
11- Lajatico - Interesting to see Prat chooses Delacour over O'neill. Tough to envision winning trip on front end with the favorite to deal with.
12- Miss Katie Mae - Jose attracted has to add some appeal. tough post for the distance for sure. Gonna need to save ground somewhere somehow to have a win chance. Also another that Prat chose against. Motion more than capable with turf sprints and should have fast fractions to run at. Gonna need a huge effort for top prize, but I expect one.

Final Thoughts: 
If Lady Aurelia breaks well she's gonna be awfully tough to run down. She is however facing older horses now. It's always tough to select just one in these turf sprints that often can turn into crapshoots. I'm gonna go with what could very well be a trendy pick (which I try to stay away from) but I think this horse is gonna fire a big one today and that's the 4 Exaggerated. She's facing a tougher bunch in this year's rendition but I think a huge effort is coming and this one is the best shot at knocking off the favorite. I feel she can be in a more tactical position early, and not have as much to make up down the stretch as some of the other top contenders such as the 2,5,10. For a race of this kind there doesn't seem to be an abundant amount of early foot and a total meltdown doesnt seem in order here. Others with a shot are the 2, who could improve fresh and enjoy the extra 1/2f. The 5 has been improving steadily and I really like the last win despite the pace not setting up. The 10 is a horse that likes to win and another where the extra distance might suit well. Finally, the 12 should like the cutback, and is coming out fresh after facing tougher at Santa Anita in a G3.

4-7-12-5
sequences: 2,4,5,7,10,12
win/place: 4

 
All-Star
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Posted: #5
Welcome 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #6
race 9:

1- Resiliency - Gonna have to break well from the rail and get a nice forward position, but did it last time. Whole new ballgame today though. Horse has been remarkably better as a 3yo, and if he takes another move forward for Assmussen, he could have a say at the end.
2- Souper Tapit - Can never count out these monster Tapit pedigrees. Would've liked to see him more competitive against winners in last. Geroux chooses the 1, and Albarado is an ice box lately. Gonna pass today but if he took a big step forward I wouldn't be totally shocked.
3- Senior Investment - Respected on the ml, and if the pace gets hot he will definitely be coming to pick up the pieces late. How many pieces though? The fact McPeek brings him right back and sends up to keeneland two weeks later has to be a good sign though.
4- No Dozing - Rosario picks up the ride and horse gets some needed class relief. Had some traffic trouble around first turn, but nothing crazy. Gonna need a nice stalking trip behind the 5 and 10, and third race as a 3yo maybe he's sitting on a big effort today.
5- Time to Travel - Depends how you look at this horse, as to me it could go one of two ways; either you think that time was blazing because of the serious speed bias that day at Gulfstream and consider it a play against, or that this horse is big time and is gonna go to the lead and never look back. I think the latter. He's now with a bigger better barn, and I happen to think his two previous races are very strong, with the debut being a key race with tons of quality.
6- Convict Pike - blinkers on adds appeal as he was getting squirrely late. Only a 11/4 lengths behind fast and accurate in last, and definitely looks to be a contender here. Maybe he'll take to the surface and sit right off the early speeds.
7- Capt. Grider - no.
8- He's Munnie - Turf Paradise Toss Paradise.
9- Lookin At Blessing - I know he finished behind maybe two of the top derby contenders in his last two, but I simply see him as inferior to the best in here. Gets some class relief for sure and hall of famer Zito has been running well, but I'll pass. Under at best.
10- West Coast - Sure to be the favorite in here, and deservingly so with the best dirt trainer on earth. Puts the blinkers on and ships for the first time so there are question marks here. He also gets a wide post and a deep competitive field, which he hasnt proven to beat yet. Was clearly wandering about down the stretch and should get improvement out of the blinkers. For sure a measured placing for Baffert choosing this field. This horse has a ton of ability and is clearly the most talented horse in the field, but is he ready to ship and win today? 

Final Thoughts: 
Million dollar question; is West Coast a freak? I'm gonna bet against West Coast and No Dozing and take what I think will be the value in the 5, Time and Travel. West Coast has shown he likes to stalk the leader, rather than gruel up front for the lead. Therefore, Time and Travel should be able to set reasonable fractions. I just have a feeling this thing can really run and is gonna get brave up front at what should be an overlay from the 4/1ml. If I can get 5 or 6/1, I think its worth taking a shot at wiring the field. This is probably my BEST BET on the card and I'm gonna trust my gut that this horse is the real deal.

5-10-4-3
sequences: 5. 4,5,10. 1,2,3,4,5,10.
win/place: 5

 
Prospect
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Posted: #7
race 10:

1- Lady Eli - Chad's favorite and most talented horse in the entire barn, so he says. Supposedly training so well that he entered her ahead of schedule in here. This horse should be a cinch, and the only way you could see her losing is if she got caught in traffic somehow and there was a slow pace. I dont see that happening, this horse should win for fun as an odds on favorite.
2- Goodyearforroses - 3for3 since Baltas took over. Horse is in top form but still under probably best against the monster to her inside.
3- Catch a Glimpse - Should get to run more of her style race without a pure burner like Celestine. Could be sharper second off the break. 
4- Dickinson - Another one that is in top form. Becoming better and more versatile as she has just thrived on turf. Has taken to new style off the pace, and we'll see how she can do down the stretch.
5- Kitten's Roar - Respect Maker but probably a cut below here. Note that only start over course she did beat Heath handily, who came a game second to Lady Eli back in 2015.
6- Time and Motion - G1 winner on this course, and probably the classiest horse in the race after Eli. Gonna need the best effort of her career to win, but probably has the best shot of any.
7- Illuminant - Should probably be right up front with the 3, and second off the layoff is absolutely eligible to take a step forward. Maybe the biggest threat? 
8- Quidura - The biggest question mark in the race. We probably haven't seen the best of this one yet, as she improved in both her starts state side as a 3yo and now returns off the layoff. Up against a serious group of older horses here and she would have to be quite the filly to jump ahead of these.

Final Thoughts:
I think Lady Eli wins easy. Simple as that. She's just better than everyone else in her class not to mention this field. If I were to omit Eli for the sake of price shopping, my next choice would be the 7 Illuminant. I think she could sit the tactical position and get the "rider's race." This horse has gotten significantly better and a big effort today could hold off the rest. If you like to wager place/show, I would recommend the 5 Kitten's Roar, which should be a bomb price and I could see outrunning her odds.

1-7-8-6
sequences: 1. 1,7,8. all.
exacta: 1/7
tri: 1/7/3,5,6,8. 

 
Prospect
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Posted: #8
Thanks Vet, 

Any insight more than welcome! We all know the more info and opinions to take in the better.
 
All-Star
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Posts: 14996
Posted: #9
Well follow you on a few

Siding with No Dozing in the 9th because as you stated,
this is a welcomed class relief effort.

Expect better then 4-1 though, could just be because of the weaker field.

4-10  4-10 all


gl
 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #10
No Dozing absolutely looks tough today and I won't be leaving him off my pick4, but I feel like the whole world is on this horse and the price wont be to my liking for a win bet. I see a better chance at 5/2 than 4/1. Quite possible I could look back in hind sight and see how stubborn I was with him, but we will see soon enough.

For Race 5:

Running out of time for horse to horse analysis. SO time consuming but it really helps making sure you cross your T's and dot the i's before putting that hard earned money down. Here's my summary for the 5th:

Society Beau is gonna be the one to hold off late, and the extra distance should suit well. I've heard from Tom Amoss on TVG this week that Fairgrounds was very difficult to pass horses this season, and the speed was playing stronger than he's seen in years. Therefore, the 1 could be the most likely winner here. Eastport and Pagliacci both look like they have alot of potential, but I have my reserves. The other two main threats are the Delacour horses, in which Musical America is going to what will prove to be his preferred surface and Upper room really took a step forward as a 3yo winning easily at Tampa. Although there doesn't seem to be an abundance of speed in here, it is a grueling distance for lightly raced 3yo's and the form of the 1 is too sharp for me to play against. The 2,3,7 should take their fair share of money and provide what could be an overlay for the Society Beau. I think this horse runs them all down late and gets Albarado his first win at the meet. 

1-2-7-3
win/place: 1

for the all stakes pick 4: 2,4/1,2,4,5,7,10,12/1,4,5,10/1  $28 on $0.50
all/4,7,12/1,4,5,10/1  $48 on $0.50
all/1,2,4,5,7,10,12/5/1  $28 on $0.50

GL to all!

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