Harness Racing Ontario - Mohawk specialty + other B tracks occasionally

$87 and $117 ??? WTF?? haha,

Awe, that sucks bro

I saw its first qualifier race bro!! Amazing horse 154 in Quali

Ugggg garbage possible payouts 

@DoubleUp4Life

 Ya, its why the first one paid so well....the big money horsemen are playing top 5 horses in races that are tough and KEYING big faves and likely playing $5 tickets....crazy eh?

There was a time I did $1,2 and $5 Pick4's .....only ever won one $1 Pick5 before when I had mostly faves and a hunch in two races....that ticket paid over $4000

At an offtrack one night, a poor guy bet $8 ticket (took one KEY and just picked names in other 4 races including a #9 in one race who won at 52-1 and a #10 going off at 16-1 and then had two other horses that were around 5-1>> it hit for $22K payout.....it was unreal....it was about $10 yrs ago. He used to hound other people to borrow money all the time so he gave most people in the building $100 each (not me) haha...I stayed away from him!

Have a good night bro....take care 

@Last2thirst

 Have a great Sunday brorher 

Really appreciate your time 

Congratulations on the nice payout tonight 

MONDAY MOHAWK HARNESS - nice cool night with virtually no wind/ no trip bias tonight !

Race 1 - Very competitive trot race > tough to KEY one horse but if I would, it would be the morning line favorite #3 finally getting an inside post and dropping down....this horse pops in this situation

BUT, there are 5-6 other horses who might win....so depending on how many I like in other races, for now:

TAKE > 123679 .... #8 could shock but the horse is not likely from there in a 9 horse field (he only wins 7 horse races)

Do a $20 DBL  3 / 7 if the payout looks like it will be over $5

Race 2 - #7 is an ABSOLUTE KEY .....but I would suggest taking a PICK3 with 1234 for an upset starting in Race #1

Race 3 - TAKE ALL because its the type of race where they might screw around and might suggest in Race #1 not doing the double but rather do the 2 KEYS in the double with ALL in this race + whatever else I suggest in the next two races

If you don't wish to take ALL:

LOVE > 14

TAKE > 3 BEST DRIVERS which are driving 35610 as well

Race 4 - Tough race again but should be fine with 4569

Race 5 - Another tough race 

TAKE > 1578910

Suggested ticket > 20 cent 

3 / 7 / 1345610 / 4569 / 1578910 << was gonna play a $20 Daily Double race #1 but this will pay better likely if it hits

Cost = $28.80

Ok....if you followed, we got the KEY in the first race at a decent price.....very hard to key one horse in that race but we did and got it

#3 won at 5 / 2

Race 2 > #7 is our other key and opens favorite 1 / 9 

I also did a PICK3 which I will show like I suggested ....a couple just in case there was a big upset

In the 3rd race, I added one more horse because #1 was scratched

Oct 03, 2022

7:09 PM Bet 45979013414866 Woodbine Stbd, Race 1, $0.20 PK5 3 / 7 / 3-6,9,10 / 4-6,9 / 1,5,7-10 $28.80

PICK3s:

Oct 03, 2022

7:11 PM Bet 01515781317513 Woodbine Stbd, Race 1, $0.20 PK3 8 / 7 / 3-6,9,10 $1.20

Oct 03, 2022

7:11 PM Bet 29794055001461 Woodbine Stbd, Race 1, $0.20 PK3 1,3,6,7,9 / 1-4 / 3,4,6,10 $16.00

I missed the late DRIVER change in Race 3 and did not have #7 but I have a PICK3 alive 3x (not paying much) to 4 horses in Race 4

The race and betting board was fishy...no way was I taking this horse stopped dead down the lane twice but all of a sudden he wires the field?? He opened up fave and stayed fave until the race started

60 cent late pick 4 

Race 9.    4

Race 10.    4,5,6,7,9

Race 11.     1.  

Race 12.     1,2,3,4,5,7,9,10 

Cost 24 

20 cent late pick 4 

Ticket B 

4 

4,5,6,7,9

3,4

1,2,3,4,5,7

Cost 12 

Ticket C 

2,6

4,5,6,7,9

1

1,2,3,4,5,7 

Cost 12 

ITS BEEN A WHILE .....and I miss my buddy up above for sports and harness betting.....I cannot believe he was banned!!!

 If you can still read this thread DOUBLE UP, man, have I got a dandy analysis going of all results in the PICK5's since December 1, 2022. You see, I retired about 6 months previously and decided to try some other things and take a break from gambling. Socially, people were awkward from pandemic years I guess, and I wasn't having as much enjoyment with the spending I was doing on getting out more, golfing....short travelling, etc.....something was missing....and I so, I have decided to get involved with an organization to keep my mind fully occupied and challenged. 

Since doing so, I find it consumes huge ours of research and frankly, that is what I used to do in my previous job and with horse racing. So, with my bank account draining, me working to further supplement my retirement income, I have come to the conclusion that I need HORSES back in my life and believe I am ready for another incredible handicapping year like 2020 and 2021 were when I calculated in my tracking that I earned over $50K from playing Pick5's , superfectas and large Daily Doubles occasionally. And I am talking profit and have the back gym and patio completed to thank for those two years......

I miss capping and finding an edge and the PICK5 at WOODBINE-MOHAWK is by far the best paying avenue to make $$ in horse racing if you know what you are doing and know how to find a 1-2 horse key to reduce huge investments in your tickets. I have done it all since about 1989 when it comes to Pick4's and Pick5's....consortiums, partnerships, etc .....and when fresh, I believe they provide profitable returns as do DOUBLES and some SUPERFECTA situations >> only when I think I have a live 15 to 30-1 horse on the track based on its form and appearance.....and I have a good idea of who could finish on top (2-3 horses)....and of course, I bet the 15 - 30 to 1 horse to win as well, and they do come in once ever 15x or so....so I have left a lot of cash on the table from making the mistake of neglecting to put win money on them too.

MY NEW ANALYSIS of 2022 - 2023 is revealing an interesting pattern and I spent all last year watching most cards but NOT PLAYING each night .....just getting used to tendencies and watching/noting my observations and then checking results. Since I have played 1 night a week since last spring, the results have been pretty good but now I am ready to deploy my strategy in the PICK5 and when I get up a sizable amount, I will deploy some of the profit toward DOUBLES and the occasional SUPERFECTA with the right scenario that I am looking for, mentioned above.

I might be starting tomorrow night, and will reveal my final analysis of the last 12-13 months when complete. I will give you a taste of it and what I plan to deploy in my next post....

I'M EXCITED to fire this thread back up after a little hiatus and break that was much needed! 

NEW METHOD OF SYSTEM BETTING + using handicapping skill to hopefully secure the right COMBO or race aligning with my strategy! That is what I am doing newly and in a fresh manner. Before, I used my 35 yrs plus years of ability and insight to cap the horses but still, race luck, poor selectin strategy or the wrong bet strategy when posting my plays meant I was leaving potential cash on the table many nights ......

I believe the combo of using this SYSTEM + pure handicapping and discipline with deploying a set amount will keep me in a profitable state and back to making money again.

 Strategy:

1. Always play PICK5 for 4 days a week and ONLY the first Pick5 even if I win a nice one and want to continue......just play one! Use DOUBLES and SUPERFECTAS after I have had a profitable evening with the PICK5

2. NEVER spend more than $150 on PICK5 and if I spend that much, I should have 2 tickets 

3. NEVER spend more than $100-120 on a ticket and aim to create ONE satisfactory ticket spending $50-80 OR 2 tickets for approx $100

4. watch races of horses I might wish to KEY from the previous week's racing action when they last raced >> this was what I used during the pandemic with a lot of success to find excellent mid odd KEYS or longshots to build nice paying tickets

5. STICKING to my system based playing only these combos of horses for the 5 LEGS of the ticket:

a. 5 horses (5x) with (5x) with (5x) with (2x lowest morning line faves ) with (2x lowest morning line faves) = $100 ticket for a 20 cent play 

b. (5x) with (5x) with (5x) with (1x KEY) with (2x lowest morning line faves) <<< this costs $50 and my key does not have to be a morning line fave if I believe one race had an favorite not being considered properly based on my research

c. (7x) with (4x) with (3x) with (2x lowest morning line faves) with (1 - 2 x lowest morning line faves) <<< this ticket will be used when I feel that I like my chances of snagging a high mid odds to high odds morning line horse in one race

= $34 - $68 to play

d. (4x) with (5x) with (4x) with (1x better analyzed lowest morning line horse) with (3x) = $48 and occasionally, I might play two tickets and pick two different races for KEYS....for a total cost of $96 that day

e. same as above, just go 4x with 5x with 4x with 2x with 2x = $64

f. (4x) with (6x) with (4x) with (2x) with (2x) << or one of these two legs I just go with a KEY horse.....ticket cost is $39 or $78

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

NO MORE TAKING ALL HORSES EVER....its a waste of money with the new system I have uncovered in my next post and the payouts with this system I am finding in the first 20 days of my analysis from Dec 2022 to Feb 2023

Also, when the warm season comes and racing is 5 nights a week, I will take a night off for one night looking at the program where I feel the selection or size of fields and returns could be the smallest and just avoid that night.... UNLESS after I have done all my analysis and find out that the best nights for payouts and my system are THURSDAYS and MONDAYS like I was finding out this past year, were my best nights to hit nice wins!

IDEA of analysis I am finding next.....

CAPPING MATTERS in my new system, so you better figure out which race has a ONE KEY or.....

Two races in the first 5 of the PICK5 that seem to have the strongest top 2 contenders to win one of your 5 legs....but here is what I have found during the spring and summer last many years....when there appears to be 2 very obvious horses much better than the rest, the racing tactics deployed by the other drivers appear to be to send some speedsters to take the lead or attack these low odd favorites and then pull the train of a medium odds horse who might pick them off down the lane from battling or going too fast......and this happens a lot, so some nights I might take 5 horses in those races and try to find two horses in 2 other legs or races of the PICK5 in order to get a nice payout or increase the odds of getting more tickets....too many times I have had 3 nice 4-1 or 7-1 winners but cannot finish what appears to be an easy race in another leg and I miss out on a $2000 - $20 000 payout!

Like during the pandemic, when my strategy was to select 1 of the 5 best drivers at the track and wheel them to win at least one of the 5 races, worked for me to win some very nice payouts, and that is because sometimes they would be KEYED at 6- 1 or 10-1 morning line and win.....and I used more money and horses on the other legs.....

This system is different and here is what I have noticed from Dec 1, 2022 to Feb 1 2023 so far:

1. most legs of the PICK5 are won by horses 6-1 or lower........ only 2 races on 15 nights had winners of morning line odds 8-1 or higher so there is no need to be taking more than 6 horses in any race, except once a month maybe?

-most races, you need only 2, 3 , 4, or 5 of the lowest morning odds.....DON'T EVEN LOOK AT ODDS BOARD CHANGES to run this system....just based it on the morning line from what I am picking up ( I plan to track which horse opens up favorite, which horse moves the most in odds if obvious, after the post parade appearances and note them for NEXT YEAR'S new system that I might try)

2. the top 2 lowest morning line horses hit the winners circle in at least 2,3 and sometimes 4 races of the PICK5....it is rare to have only ONE RACE dominated by them and even much rarer, to have all 5 winners with no top two morning line odds horses winning a race......I will find an exemption, BUT IT IS NOT WORTH IT TO SPEND THE MONEY chasing these exceptions!

3. RACE 1 almost always has an odds dropper win the first leg ....in 15 days, only 3 times did a winner come from morning line odds staying the same or rising at post time......this tells me that paying attention to the first race is vital and sticking with 2 lowest morning line odds appears to be a sound strategy if pressed for time to get your ticket finished before the race starts......just take the 2 lowest in that leg and treat the rest of the 4 races like you are playing a PICK4 .....I might try this strategy when I play 2 tickets some nights with different combos ....but remember, I am not looking to spend more than $100 a night  and if I can spend $300 on a week maximum, that would be ideal. Losing only $1200 per month is not bad if you did hit a cold streak for a month or two

Finally.....in this thread in previous years, I posted my ticket before I played my ticket BUT WILL NO LONGER DO SO since I might need that time to place the tickets (2x) and I never want to miss my chance like I did occasionally by helping others....just follow some of my strategy that I have outlined.

I will show my ticket combo on many nights after I have got them in....AND MAYBE BEFORE RACE 1 begins

 I am excited to begin tomorrow but might wait until FRIDAY NIGHT ....lets get the party started 

21 Day analysis of results from Dec 1, 2022 to Jan 13, 2022: (I plan to do a full winter analysis to March 1 result and will post when complete)

- 1 race day where the winning PICK5 was $16 040 ! (would not have been picked by my system)

- 21 days that my system COULD have caught with the highest payouts of $1415, $1055 and 2x over $850

- average win over the 21 days was $371 so if utilizing $100 per night, profits are good for most weeks!

- CAPPING will have to get the right races where 2 of the lowest morning lines hit......out of 5 races....so therefore, your ticket must include the lowest morning line horse UNLESS, they are scratched or they have obviously poor form in the first race POST PARADE..... if one were to hit the right 2x lowest in the right slot, one could expect to win 21 of 22 days in that period, BUT I think it will be more realistic to hit every 1 out 3 OR every 1 out of 2  nights if you capped appropriately to hit the 2 races with morning lows and catch the other races where the winners have odds of 7-2 to 6 -1 and sometimes 8-1 or 10-1 << this winning tickets will be rare since you would have to play one race of 6 or 7 horses and reduce the number you take in 2 other races

-  my expected minimum success if I played that system in Dec 1 2022 to Jan 13, 2023 would have been:

7 won Pick5's at a payout of $2600 and a spending of 22 races @$75 average per session = $1650

- profit over that period would be expected to be around $800-$1200 depending on my ticket expenses.... and so this is like a part time job over a 6 week period and every once in a while, the averages might be lower or higher but this would be the expected profit over 22 sessions 

- in order to break even, I would have to win 4-5 PICK5's per 22 sessions and if the system is any good, it will likely be higher than that and closer to winning 10-12 times per 22 sessions >> IF YOU CAP AND SELECT WELL which races to take more horses in

This seems good enough to proceed then......should I gain decent profit over 3-6 months, I may up my ticket sizes in some races to try to snag even more BIGGER ticket winners but keep the same format of having 2 races with 2 favourites or ONE KEY and lots of medium odds in the other 4 races 

NEW SYSTEM CARD #1 

Invest  = $69

Plays at Woodbine Mohawk:

Bet
Woodbine Stbd, Race 1, $0.20 PK5 2,7 / 4,6,7 / 2,4,6,7 / 5-8 / 2     $19.20
Bet
Woodbine Stbd, Race 1, $0.20 PK5 5 / 2,4-7 / 2,4,6,7 / 2,5-8 / 2,6   $40.00
Bet
Woodbine Stbd, Race 1, $0.20 PK5 5 / 4,6,7 / 2,4,6,7 / 2,6-8 / 1      $9.60

BOL if tailing 

If you want to watch, here is the link to watch the first 5 races:

https://woodbine.com/mohawk/watch-races/

Race 1 is official and the 2 hr  pre-race favorite held form to win as the post time favorite.

-when one of the two top post time favorites are bet down below the form morning line, it wins 14 out of 22 races I documented a year ago

-#5 was 7-2 in the morning line but opened up EVEN money and was bet down even lower until the race began

Bet
Woodbine Stbd, Race 1, $0.20 PK5 2,7 / 4,6,7 / 2,4,6,7 / 5-8 / 2     $19.20  << toast 
Bet
Woodbine Stbd, Race 1, $0.20 PK5 > alive >    5 / 2,4-7 / 2,4,6,7 / 2,5-8 / 2,6   $40.00
Bet
Woodbine Stbd, Race 1, $0.20 PK5  > alive >   5 / 4,6,7 / 2,4,6,7 / 2,6-8 / 1      $9.60

WELL....the system has brought me a nice big one I think...

Bet
Woodbine Stbd, Race 1, $0.20 PK5 2,7 / 4,6,7 / 2,4,6,7 / 5-8 / 2     $19.20  << toast 
Bet
Woodbine Stbd, Race 1, $0.20 PK5 > alive >    5 / 2,4-7 / 2,4,6,7 / 2,5-8 / 2,6   $40.00
Bet
Woodbine Stbd, Race 1, $0.20 PK5  > alive >   5 / 4,6,7 / 2,4,6,7 / 2,6-8 / 1      $9.60   <<< toast

Payouts Possible:

1
Tobins Profit
6 $1,229.49 (5 of 5)
2
No Partners
3/2 $416.60 (5 of 5)
3
Up Joeys Credit
10 $828.57 (5 of 5)
4
Xtra Cheese
4 $1,323.19 (5 of 5)
5
Bring Your Fire
9 $1,896.46 (5 of 5)
6
Doc Houston
5 $1,127.48 (5 of 5)
7
Two for Tripping
29 $13,952.58 (5 of 5)
8
Bet on Blake
12 $12,551.72 (5 of 5)
9
Saulsbrook Boomer
25 $17,859.31 (5 of 5)

SYSTEM already paying nice dividends!!

7:04 PM Bet 75023934622829 Woodbine Stbd, Race 1, $0.20 PK5 5 / 2,4-7 / 2,4,6,7 / 2,5-8 / 2,6 

$1,127.48     $40.00
Dec 28, 2023
-----------------------------------------------------------

NEW SYSTEM CARD #1 

Invest  = $69

Win = $1 127.48

Tell us more as you move forward.