Harness Racing Ontario - Mohawk specialty + other B tracks occasionally

Other expenses to get the cash were backup Doubles in Race 4 and Win bets on some horses in Race 5:

My Transactions
Jan 01, 2024
8:18 PM Bet 72779841569472 Woodbine Stbd, Race 4, $1.00 DBL 1,2 / 4 $2.00
Jan 01, 2024
8:18 PM Bet 88037608535461 Woodbine Stbd, Race 4, $1.00 DBL 1,2 / 4 $2.00
Jan 01, 2024
8:17 PM Bet 03984070123401 Woodbine Stbd, Race 4, $1.00 DBL 1,2,10 / 4 $3.00
Jan 01, 2024
8:17 PM Bet 82915582634878 Woodbine Stbd, Race 4, $1.00 DBL 1,2,10 / 4 $3.00

Jan 01, 2024
8:30 PM Bet 24333074955766 Woodbine Stbd, Race 4, $5.00 DBL 5 / 5 $5.00
Jan 01, 2024
8:29 PM Bet 49819486607816 Woodbine Stbd, Race 4, $5.00 DBL 2 / 4 $5.00
Jan 01, 2024
8:20 PM Bet 51655453816583 Woodbine Stbd, Race 4, $10.00 DBL 5,6,8 / 5 $30.00
Jan 01, 2024
8:20 PM Bet 05239214323503 Woodbine Stbd, Race 4, $4.00 DBL 4 / 5 $458.20 $4.00
Jan 01, 2024
8:20 PM Bet 60104561100077 Woodbine Stbd, Race 4, $1.00 DBL 4-6,8 / 8 $4.00
Jan 01, 2024
8:19 PM Bet 06037972639115 Woodbine Stbd, Race 4, $1.00 DBL 4-6,8 / 8 $4.00
Jan 01, 2024
8:19 PM Bet 45380137051333 Woodbine Stbd, Race 4, $2.00 DBL 5,6,8 / 8 $6.00
Jan 01, 2024
8:18 PM Bet 05090823008551 Woodbine Stbd, Race 4, $1.00 DBL 1,2 / 4 $2.00

Jan 01, 2024
8:46 PM Bet 90029181936913 Woodbine Stbd, Race 5, $10.00 WIN 1 $10.00

Jan 01, 2024
8:49 PM Bet 30444616041711 Woodbine Stbd, Race 5, $50.00 WIN 2 $50.00
Jan 01, 2024
8:49 PM Bet 19902085103472 Woodbine Stbd, Race 5, $5.00 WIN 8 $5.00
Jan 01, 2024
8:49 PM Bet 84702538604184 Woodbine Stbd, Race 5, $20.00 WIN 8 $20.00
Jan 01, 2024
8:48 PM Bet 16680447954726 Woodbine Stbd, Race 5, $50.00 WIN 5 $165.00 $50.00

Jan 01, 2024
8:48 PM Bet 70525115890813 Woodbine Stbd, Race 5, $5.00 WIN 1,3,6 $15.00

When a big payout is possible, its a sad feeling not cashing anything and at least getting your cash invested out + some more possible with some horses and that was what I was doing protecting a large potential payout of $4400+ to #4 KEY I had in the last leg

All told, I invested $220 in Backups + $93 in PICK5 tickets to get return of $640  = + $327 profit on early Pick5 

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

Decided to test the SYSTEM on the Late Pick5 which I think is now going well so once in a while I will play

Here was my ticket:  Jan 01, 2024
9:13 PM Bet 17082674660259 Woodbine Stbd, Race 6, $0.20 PK5 2,3,5-7 / 1,5-7,9 / 7 / 2-4,6,8 / 2,8

Result >>> $111.35     $50.00 (cost)

AFTER 5 x PICK5  CARDS of the NEW SYSTEM:

 4 - 1

Highest Return: $1127+

Highest Just Miss (Jan 1,2023) = $4267+

Backup betting Costs = $220 (Jan 1,2023)

System Ticket Investment= $453

Recoveries from Backups: $639+

(The point with recording this, I can use my cashflow to still make $$ and recover losses if PICK5 pending)

Recovered from PICK5 wins ($$) = $1435.62 

Profit = + $1401 

Week #2 begins this Thursday....lets see what the 2nd week brings

Internet issues since 7pm EST in Ontario with our provider.....finally back on

Got my ticket in for Card #5 and the start of a new week (technically Card 6 because I played 2 the other night)

Jan 04, 2024
6:45 PM Bet 54107405759352 Woodbine Stbd, Race 1, $0.20 PK5 2,5,6,10 / 2,4-7 / 1,2,5-7 / 2,6,8 / 5 $60.00

Race 1 - 7-2 in the book or 2nd fave morning line won at 7-1

Race 2 - 3-1 and morning line fave won at 9 - 5

Race 3 - 8-1 morning line and I put the horse in won at only 3 - 1

This is paying well..... only have 3 horses left with a key

Race 4 - Fave #8 won 

-also played a big Pick4 with it and #6 and put money across on #2 who finished 3rd ....thought I got PLACE but nope

High Rolling A
#5    4/5 $143.19 (5 of 5)

....opens fave and payout is light, but with fave in the last race, maybe not. Pretty decent for a $60 ticket if it comes in and the PICK4's I am playing are for some action

I feel strongly about #5 here and Lou Roy to complete his Double

Longshot in Race #5 ....bet #7 or #9...they have the conditioning times and final Q's to upset

Did not get Pick5 tonight. I could have spent more, but in my opinion it was a difficult  one to cap a fa8-1

vorite and I knew a ticket of all the top 2 morning line faves would not win it

So I played the System and added the 8 - 1 horse or two as well, that I thought had the shot

They tried to bring one in during the first race as it went off at 4-5 but lost. They brought one in in Race 3 at 3-1 in the book, but morning line of 8-1

Lost $60 and that's a good shot using the system, but not tonight

AFTER 6 x PICK5 CARDS of the NEW SYSTEM:

4 - 2

Highest Return: $1127+

Highest Just Miss (Jan 1,2023) = $4267+

Backup betting Costs = $220 (Jan 1,2023)

System Ticket Investment= $513

Recoveries from Backups: $639+

(The point with recording this, I can use my cashflow to still make $$ and recover losses if PICK5 pending)

Recovered from PICK5 wins ($$) = $1435.62

Profit = + $1341

Getting my SYSTEM NIGHT #7 Card organized....

***will report on Dec 1, 2022 to Jan 30, 2023 data analysis later on when done or at the end of the night/tomorrow

*** fascinating results and starting to work on the next 30 PICK5 results from Feb 1 to March 31 which will provide 60 days of analysis and within it, 45 days of cold weather racing results and 15 days of warming up spring racing results

BOTTOM LINE, I can make money in this quite easily but should not expect to get rich, but grow profit and enjoy it.....the other conclusion is, as long as I stay within my system boundaries, I should avg about 50-60% success rate with my system if I got every combo right where I am using 6-1 horses to favorites, and using my handicapping to have 2 races with only 1 or 2 horses that are faves......and if I am hitting the odd horse, with an 8 -1 or 10-1 morning line, my chances will be closer to 60% of the time if I am successfully hitting the right combos some of the time and using the system of morning lines regularly ....but again I have to get the right combo

-so I figure I will hit the right combo with my understanding of capping for 35 years, about 4-5 x per month minimum which means NO CHANCE to lose all my money and this turns into a fun and likely profitable venture

- how come no chance?? There was NEVER one session in 30, where no top two faves had never won out of the 5 races in the PICK5 and I expected to find a few at least during the year....but its impossible to get zero returns for two months straight and you have to be really unlucky in my opinion, to only hit 2 PICK5s per month, and even then, chances are you might be EVEN or you are down only about 50% from your invest$$ put into it

Lets see if the next 30 sessions in my analysis show similar consistency and any anomalies as well

Good luck tonight

As usual, I might be able to show my ticket after so you get a feel for what I am doing 

Like the PICK5 potential to pay decently: $150+ on tickets and got #1 to win the first leg <<< OFFICIAL

One PICK3 for fun and a Backup:

Jan 05, 2024
7:17 PM Bet 48530715672370 Woodbine Stbd, Race 1, $0.20 PK3 1,4,6 / 2,4,6,8 / 1-4 $9.60

PICK5's

Jan 05, 2024
7:16 PM Bet 75953035440304 Woodbine Stbd, Race 1, $0.20 PK5  1 / 2,6 / 2,3,7,8 / 6,7 / 4,5,8 $9.60
Jan 05, 2024
7:16 PM Bet 89706183485755 Woodbine Stbd, Race 1, $0.20 PK5  1 / 2,6 / 2,3,7,8 / 6,7 / 4,5,8 $9.60
Jan 05, 2024
7:15 PM Bet 04559775461280 Woodbine Stbd, Race 1, $0.20 PK5  1 / 2,6 / 5 / 2,5-8 / 4,5,8,9 $8.00
Jan 05, 2024
7:14 PM Bet 84317787557303 Woodbine Stbd, Race 1, $0.20 PK5  1 / 2,6 / 3,7,8 / 2,4-7 / 4,5,8-10 $30.00
Jan 05, 2024
7:13 PM Bet 88570177337568 Woodbine Stbd, Race 1, $0.20 PK5  1,4-6,9 / 2 / 2,3,6-8 / 6,7 / 4,5,8,9 $40.00 
Jan 05, 2024
7:12 PM Bet 04960101515493 Woodbine Stbd, Race 1, $0.20 PK5  1 / 2,4,6,8 / 1-3,5-8 / 5-7 / 4,5,9,10 $67.20

Race #1 - #1 WINS

Race #2 - #6 WINS

Race #3 - #3 opens up favorite - Ville Franche....excellent winter horse for results over the years and is dropping down with aggressive driver in Louie Roy at the reins

PICK5's

WHAT I HAVE ALIVE ....this is going to be a small payout likely

Jan 05, 2024
7:16 PM Bet 75953035440304 Woodbine Stbd, Race 1, $0.20 PK5  1 / 2,6 / 2,3,7,8 / 6,7 / 4,5,8 $9.60
Jan 05, 2024
7:16 PM Bet 89706183485755 Woodbine Stbd, Race 1, $0.20 PK5  1 / 2,6 / 2,3,7,8 / 6,7 / 4,5,8 $9.60
Jan 05, 2024
7:14 PM Bet 84317787557303 Woodbine Stbd, Race 1, $0.20 PK5  1 / 2,6 / 3,7,8 / 2,4-7 / 4,5,8-10 $30.00
Jan 05, 2024
7:12 PM Bet 04960101515493 Woodbine Stbd, Race 1, $0.20 PK5  1 / 2,4,6,8 / 1-3,5 7-8 / 5-7 / 4,5,9,10 $67.20

Embarrassed to say that I played all those tickets and did not have #6 who won easily!

I spent $50 on BACKUPs since I had 5 horses paying 2x

BACKUP Tickets and returns:

Jan 05, 2024
8:54 PM Bet 64976547760128 Woodbine Stbd, Race 5, $20.00    WIN  6 $127.00  $20.00
Jan 05, 2024
8:54 PM Bet 24741387382902 Woodbine Stbd, Race 5, $10.00   WIN  1,4,6 $63.50  $30.00

AFTER 7 x PICK5 of the NEW SYSTEM:

4 - 3

Highest Return: $1127+

Highest Just Miss (Jan 1,2023) = $4267+

Backup betting Costs = $270 (Jan 1, 5, 2023)

System Ticket Investment= $668

Recoveries from Backups: $809+

(The point with recording this, I can use my cashflow to still make $$ and recover losses if PICK5 pending)

Recovered from PICK5 wins ($$) = $1435.62

Profit = + $1306

My ticket tonight

 No backup in the 5th race...... 1st ticket is a PICK3 to take a shot at an upset in the first race. I watched my KEY on my PICK5 ticket race last week on Youtube and if he ever got out, he was going to win the race easily and still came close when he got less than  1/ 8 of a mile of open track >> he PEETIE is #1 in this race last week > https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=STVrYkZ0csg

If I have a KEY, I might show a ticket like I am now but its a risk. I plan on playing a small ticket keying #3 in the 5th Leg of the PICK5 and take 1-2 less horses in the other legs....but only if 1-2 horses look great on the track warming up and in the POST PARADE for race #1

Bet
Woodbine Stbd, Race 1, $0.20 PK3      1,4-9 / 3,4,7 / 1,3-6,8    $25.20
Bet
Woodbine Stbd, Race 1, $0.20  PK5   3 / 3,4,7 / 1,3-6,8 / 2-4,6,8,9 / 3,9    $43.20

Saw the horse come out and played one more PICK5

Bet
Woodbine Stbd, Race 1, $0.20 PK5    6,7,9 / 3,7 / 3-5,8 / 3,4,6,8,9 / 3    $24.00

#8 LOOKED great but thought this through and realized the driver is not good enough to hold it together at high speed on an off track and that is exactly what happened as he went to the front and went way too fast 

AFTER 8 x PICK5 of the NEW SYSTEM:

4 - 4

Highest Return: $1127+

Highest Just Miss (Jan 1,2023) = $4267+

Backup betting Costs = $295 (Jan 1, 5,6,  2023)

System Ticket Investment= $735

Recoveries from Backups: $809

(The point with recording this, I can use my cashflow to still make $$ and recover losses if PICK5 pending)

Recovered from PICK5 wins ($$) = $1435.62

Profit = + $1214

Feeling the pressure to hit one.....lost 3 in a row

Seeing an opportunity to bet a DOUBLE system potentially as well, or both. I am in the process of gathering data on it  for that period and comparing it to the recent period at Mohawk.....if interesting, I will post the results

DATA ANALYSIS OF PICK5 SYSTEM OVER 30 DAYS: (Dec 1, 2022 to Jan 30, 2023)

- amazing stats uncovered to spawn my present attempt to try this, but I intend to extend my data to the next period of 30 race cards from Feb 1 2023 to March 31st  2023 which will have the last couple of week results enter the warm season 

Interesting Data Uncovered in Period 1 (first 30 days of study):

- in the 30 session period, up to $10561 was recoverable using my system

- 26 out of 30 sessions could have been caught by the system (average = $406.20)

- 7 of the 26 sessions had at least an 8-1 or 10 -1 winner win only one of the 5 races in the PICK5,  so finding them and adding is KEY, but not necessary to make money and the avg payout of those 7 sessions = $771.42

- OUT of my 4 wins out of 4 so far, I have caught one such winner already with capping awareness

-the average payout for a systems with WITHOUT ONE OUTLIER medium odds = $323.09 average

CAPPING USING SYSTEM SHOULD CAPTURE HALF OF THESE ALONE, so even if you are capturing only 1 out of 3, and your average ticket(s) cost $85 per session to get 6 PICK5's out of 19  sessions, the profit is still there assuming you are hitting one of your 6 PICK5 wins worth over $400 

Cost = 19 x $85  = $1615       

Win total potential for 6 wins out of 19 = $1000 - $1938

Win total potential for 9 wins our of 19 = $1500 - $2907

PURE SYSTEM PLAYS WITH LITTLE CAPPING SHOULD return you back enough money to keep going for a while and luck and capping should get you 1-2 wins extra  to ensure you do not lose money

Some other interesting data coming up in next post ....

Other Supportive Data that supports the system is sustainable and likely profitable: (after 30 days)

FACTS:

-  O out of 30 Sessions had NO Top 2 morning line favorites  win ALL 5 RACES!!!

- 3 - 30 Sessions had two horses of more at 8-1 or even higher odds  and their accumulated win cashing = $19 879

(trying to get these might be the next goal after I make bank for a year or two?)

- 12 - 1 or 15 - 1 won a race on 3 out of 30 cards 

---------------------------------------------------------

- taking an 8 - 1 OR  10 - 1 managed to win a race in 10 instances in a PICK5 

- having 6 - 1 or lower odds, happened on 18 of 30  PICK5's 

- 29 of 30 sessions had AT LEAST 2 races where either of the top 2 morning line horses, WIN in the PICK5 

- 17 out of 19 sessions saw AT LEAST 3 races where either of the top 2 morning line horses, WIN races in the PICK5

- 9 out of 30 sessions saw AT LEAST 4 races where either of the top 2 morning line horses, WIN races in the PICK5, and the average cash ticket in these 10 instances paid = $223.55

- and as stated earlier, no pick5s were cashed with ALL Top 2 morning line faves winning ALL 5 RACES!

SYSTEM CARD #9 Tonight:

2x horses in race #1 is all you need

2x horses is likely all you need but will play another ticket with 247 as well in Race #2

Race 3 > think you only need 5-6 horses and have thrown out Choregrapher #9 on a lot of tickets because the horse likes speed and Tyler Jones is not likely going to pick off these other drivers down the lane if he takes the horse to the back to come off of speed

Race 4 > I originally had 3 -4 horses but then thought about who has speed and how the race will go...... #5 Patriarch Hanover was forced into two moves and was picked off by a strong closing horse dropping down like it

-I don't think Walkonthemoon has the driving style dimension and speed to pick this one off, otherwise, it would have finished 2nd last week off of so much speed

-Ritson worries me because McClure is aggressive when he thinks his horse has a shot and decides to leave and Ritson used to go to the front and has a strong trainer who is phenomenal with trotters....he worries me more

BUT I REALLY BELIEVE, PATRIARCH HANOVER will get to the lead unstressed, control fractions and save something for the final stretch on slower fractions this week

KEYING #5 on 4 tickets

Race 5 > like 5 horses here but think you might need ALL of them except for one horse.....think this race is wide open and really like #10 to make this pay...dropping down and versatile racer with good times, kick and speed where needed

I have played 5 tickets, mostly keying #5  in race 4 and 3-4 in race 1 and #5-6 on a lot of tickets....

I don't think you have to spend a lot and doubt there will be an upset in RACE 1, 2 ,4 .....but very likely in races 3 and 5

BOL, I am spending about $90 but don't need to do so....think half of that will win you one piece of the pot

Tickets I played and payouts.....

Jan 08, 2024
6:26 PM Bet 44729955357407 Woodbine Stbd, Race 1, $0.20 PK5 3 / 5,6 / 3,5,6 / 5 / 1-3,5,10     $27.81   $6.00

Jan 08, 2024
6:26 PM Bet 26299386839730 Woodbine Stbd, Race 1, $0.20 PK5 3,4 / 5,6 / 3,5-7,9 / 5 / 1-3,5,10   $27.81   $20.00
Jan 08, 2024
6:24 PM Bet 60390329285619 Woodbine Stbd, Race 1, $0.20 PK5 3 / 5,6 / 3,5-7,9 / 3,6 / 1-3,5,10    $20.00

Jan 08, 2024
6:22 PM Bet 38703914818434 Woodbine Stbd, Race 1, $0.20 PK5 3 / 5,6 / 1-7,9 / 5 / 1-3,5-7,9,10   $27.81    $25.60

No need to back up since 3 faves came in and even a 10 - 1 morning line in the last race won but did not matter

AFTER 9 x PICK5 of the NEW SYSTEM:

5 - 4

Highest Return: $1127+

Highest Just Miss (Jan 1,2023) = $4267+

Backup betting Costs = $295 (Jan 1, 5,6, 2023)

System Ticket Investment= $807

Recoveries from Backups: $809

(The point with recording this, I can use my cashflow to still make $$ and recover losses if PICK5 pending)

Recovered from PICK5 wins ($$) = $1519.05

Profit = + $1226

CARD #10 - less horses so I am going to not over indulge

7 with 7 with 7 with 9 horses and finally, 10 horses will line up in race #5

My tickets:

Pick3's as Backup and one ticket

Bet
Woodbine Stbd, Race 1, $0.20 PK3 4,7 / 1,7 / 1,2,4 $2.40
Bet
Woodbine Stbd, Race 1, $0.20 PK3 4,7 / 1,7 / 1,2,4,6,7 $4.00
Bet
Woodbine Stbd, Race 1, $0.20 PK3 1,3,5,6 / 4,6 / 1,2,4,6,7 $8.00
Bet
Woodbine Stbd, Race 1, $0.20 PK5 4,7 / 4,6 / 1,2,4,6,7 / 1,3,8,9 / 2,4,8 $48.00

Spent $48 , got back $56 ...but leaked some money on some pick3's

Jan 11, 2024
6:43 PM Bet 05748419938630 Woodbine Stbd, Race 1, $0.20 PK5 4,7 / 4,6 / 1,2,4,6,7 / 1,3,8,9 / 2,4,8   $56.32    $48.00

AFTER 9 x PICK5 of the NEW SYSTEM:

5 - 4

Highest Return: $1127+

Highest Just Miss (Jan 1,2023) = $4267+

Backup betting Costs = $309 (Jan 1, 5,6,11, 2023)

System Ticket Investment= $855

Recoveries from Backups: $809

(The point with recording this, I can use my cashflow to still make $$ and recover losses if PICK5 pending)

Recovered from PICK5 wins ($$) = $1575.37

Profit = + $1220

ERROR:

This should be > 

AFTER 10 x PICK5 SESSIONS of the NEW SYSTEM:

6 - 4

No racing tonight and likely tomorrow night with pure blizzard ...lots of snow and 40-50 mph winds for 24 hrs

My ticket and its very windy and cold....lots of horse made the night (47 out of 50 are racing!)

-BRUTAL NIGHT for an outside horse unless scratches and RACE 1 proved that with overwhelming fave finishing 4th and had nothing down the lane 

Main:

Jan 13, 2024
7:04 PM Bet 18396527182509 Woodbine Stbd, Race 1, $0.20 PK5 1,6,7,10 / 2,6,7 / 2-5,8 / 2,4,5,8 / 7     $48.00

Backup P3s:

Jan 13, 2024
7:10 PM Bet 31258950770826 Woodbine Stbd, Race 1, $0.20 PK3 1,6,7,10 / 1,8 OUT/ 2-4,6,8    $8.00

Jan 13, 2024
7:09 PM Bet 27604493381711 Woodbine Stbd, Race 1, $0.20 PK3 1,6,7,10 / 2,6,7 / 1   $2.40

FINAL RESULT

OUT > RACE 3 >> cut out #6 from my ticket originally and forgot to put on my PICK3 backup  > paid $91 

AFTER 11 x PICK5 SESSIONS of the NEW SYSTEM:

6 - 5

Highest Return: $1127+

Highest Just Miss (Jan 1,2023) = $4267+

Backup betting Costs = $320 (Jan 1, 5,6,11,13 2023)

System Ticket Investment= $903

Recoveries from Backups: $809

(The point with recording this, I can use my cashflow to still make $$ and recover losses if PICK5 pending)

Recovered from PICK5 wins ($$) = $1575.37

Profit = + $1161

Did not play Monday night as I had to attend to a situation in the house. Furnace was not working and a cold snap came in so I was definitely more into getting that issue resolved.

Playing tonight and don't think you have to spend much to get it. I also plays some small upset Pick3's in Race #1 with some longer to mediums shots:

PICK5 SELECTIONS FOR SYSTEM

Jan 18, 2024
6:37 PM Bet 21229236329409 Woodbine Stbd, Race 1, $0.20 PK5 8 / 1,3,7,8 / 2,3,9 / 8 / 5,9,10    $7.20
Jan 18, 2024
6:36 PM Bet 25793794510292 Woodbine Stbd, Race 1, $0.20 PK5 3 / 1,3,7,8 / 8 / 8 / 2,4,5,9,10     $4.00
Jan 18, 2024
6:35 PM Bet 89988527649434 Woodbine Stbd, Race 1, $0.20 PK5 3 / 1,3-8 / 2,3,9 / 8 / 2,4,5,9,10   $21.00  << Has ALL in Race #2

BOL and have some fun