Harness Racing Ontario - Mohawk specialty + other B tracks occasionally

Thought I was going to win last night....didn't even back up because I had 3 fastest horses and they brought in a longshot!

Tonight- MASSIVE CARRYOVER and so the pool is huge and when this happens, you have to not spend much money and take some chances on some things......well, these are NON-SYSTEM plays and I took ALL in the first race and the LONGEST SHOT ON THE BOARD JUST WON!!!

Mar 16, 2024
6:58 PM Bet 61360465481876 Woodbine Stbd, Race 1, $0.20 PK5 1,3,5,7 / 5,7 / 1,3 / 5 / 3,4,7    $9.60
Mar 16, 2024
6:57 PM Bet 36966367535073 Woodbine Stbd, Race 1, $0.20 PK5 1-8 / 5,7 / 1,3,5 / 6 / 3,4,7    $28.80

Wild, another longshot and now, they just might create a another CARRYOVER for the late P5 .....tonight's first P5 has $350 000 in it  and now down to $800 left in the pool

I have a shot at 4 of 5 due to the first race ALL I played and few would take that horse unless they use ALL like me.

@Last2thirst

 what just happened at Woodbine the 6 won then they reran the race and the 3 won????????

There might have been an infraction....I didn't have a chance so I didn't notice

Taking a break for a while while the weather and track gets a little more consistent. Racing was closed this week and started back up last night. I watched. 

I have decided to be selective on cards that have some variety of new horses and situations for the PICK5. There were plenty of instances of horses this winter receiving low odds pre-race for no reason at all and their form was awful before, and then come race time they were up to 8-1 to 15-1 and they win easily in what I call a shady race with unusual fractions by the better horses. I know its part of racing, but in the past few months, they have done this a couple nights per week in 2 races often, in the P5 and results are not necessarily reflecting the unusual horses. P5's payouts should be much higher with the risk one might take an spend on but they are not. BARN RACES or predetermined races seem to be happening....with more frequency this year?

Reflecting back on System Potential each month to Dec 1:

March = 6 out 17 cards were reachable ($1128 in prize cash)  = spend $700 - $900

Feb = 3 out of 17 were reachable with system ($223 in prize cash) = spent likely $800-1000

Jan = 4 out 15 were reachable  ($541 in prize cash) = spent likely $700 = 900

Being selective in April.....but come May 1st, I think the warmer weather will help with consistency

May 12 - 2024

 Its time to fire up the PICK5 horse thread and going to present 3 options for Pick5 occasionally that I will call TREND #1 (trend I started here before which is use TOP 2 morning line picks on almost every play PLUS some additional picks on some Race legs of the PICK5 but rarely use anything about 6 - 1 morning line)

Trend #2 - sometimes when it looks like a lot of faves are likely going to happen.....I will take more moderate odds except for ONE race maybe and suggest a PICK5 ....won't do this every time but that is what I am doing instead of taking every morning line fave in every leg of the PICK5 and others

- this strategy worked so well during the first year of the pandemic...I made a shit ton because some stables had to do most of the work themselves without hired hands and the smaller stables flourished who do that anyway!!

Hot Pick #1 and #2 in any individual race (won't give 2 each race but #2 will be longer odds option when I give it) - will pick KEYS in each race NO MATTER what the odds are and these can be picks that I sometime use to CONSTRUCT 2-4 different types of PICK5's but never spend over $110 if I construct more than one PICK5

-those peering in can also use them to WHEEL in triactors, doubles or superfectas OR bet them across. I have been having success betting across or doing DOUBLES in the last 2 months 

-HOT PICKS picks are also who I believe will likely win or have a strong shot of winning to payout well on the win in a DOUBLE or bet across.....sometimes TREND #2 plays might appear as the race night is unfolding because I might see something in the POST PARADE which would give you about 5 minutes or so to use if you want

Monday May 13th Mohawk:

- Weather could be a factor tonight with T-storms and SW wind that could gust to 20 mph .....this wind favors drivers like JMAC, Bob McClure and Tyler Borth who like to come with flow at the 5/8 marker to the last quarter on that bend....they will get a push 

Race 1 - #8  HOTPICK - 5/2 morning line 

- do not see any times close to the two best this horse has put up this season and last year

- Bossence ships his horses to win at Mohawk and has Bob McClure who knows how to get the most out of a trotter either on the engine or off the helmet

KEVIN ANTHONY #4 is the only legitimate threat to go on the engine with Trevor and hold the lead (this trotter has been revamped since for the last couple of years, the horse came off the helmet to blaze down the final 1/8) while El Toro has traffic trouble .....and if #4 and #8 get into a speed battle, #2 or a longshot like #10 could come flying to shock the HOTPICK at the wire....not likely, but possible

Race 5 - #8  HOTPICK-1 (7-2 ML)   and   #6 HOTPICK -2 (10-1 ML)

- #8 YO MISTER > gets the other great trot harness driver besides Jodi who did a fine job pressing the buttons on this horse in two ways and still was able to get a nice closing time in 27+ seconds

- this week > JMAC takes over and I like that this horse will be on a helmet on the last turn pushing at the horses that will leave including QUEBEC HANOVER and my HOTPICK-2 selection

-this horse is dropping down and I do like LOCATELLI #1 but LOCATELLI does not have the ability to leave the gate and could get trapped in the #1 hole and not get out......we know that Jodi did a fine job schooling this horse to leave and save horsepower for the final Q or 1/8

#7 figures and will help my 2nd HOTPICK get into position to strike down the lane sitting behind this horse..........because if you look at this class recently, the $18 000 classification has been getting away with cheap halfs of 58' BUT.....#1,8, 7, 6 are used to much quicker HALFS so I anticipate with two droppers, #8 will move to the front on cheap fractions OR get to position in the 4-5 hole .....I expect #6 and #7 to move to the front thinking that Locatelli and Yo Mister are a lesser threat from being positioned at the back

Why I like #6: HOTPICK - 2

- Luc Roy out of the 5 or 6 hole with a speed horse is capable of getting to the lead or the 2-hole and braving up......this horse is sitting on a big mile and have been watching it for a while now

- should rain or winds get gusty, it is the type of horse that can move well up the cones with Quebec Hanover and maybe Eden on the Hill who I do not expect to win 2 in a row vs a lot better horses this week...... QUEBEC HANOVER has too much speed off the gate and I expect LUC ROY to follow and get the 2 hole with greater speed than EDEN #5

-look at closing Qs for Southwind Domino....more than enough to go by Quebec Hanover and with Luc Roys talent down the last 100 feet or so, I think he could hold off a fast charging #8 OR #1

Will post my suggested PICK5's later.....I will be play 2 plays most likely

RACE THOUGHTS IN PICK5 and my 3 tickets:

NOTE: hourly forecasters are no longer calling for rain in Campbellville! SW at 15-20 mph remains

Race 1 

-HOTPICK for a key #8 (2 tickets with it)

- one ticket with #2 and #4 

- $1 exactor on #10 / 248

Race 2

-every horse has a shot >> ALL on every ticket!

Race 3

-one ticket keying #3 

-one other ticket with 8 horses in this race but not including #7 or #8

Race 4 

-feel like you have to take 4-5 horses and speed will matter + 1-2 fast finishers

-LIKE 234 and 8 .....considering putting in #6 because the horse can fly in the last quarter (equipment change - lighter bike!)

Race 5

- 2 HOTPICKS in this race .....one long, one likely one of the two favorites

- love #8 as my main HOTPICK >> will appear on all 3 tickets 

- see in previous post why I love #6 tonight with Luc Roy > will appear on ONE ticket along with #1

- only feel that #1 can win this race otherwise ...........but will backup #5 (has lighter bike change), 7 and 9 if I have a shot at a $200+ payout or more

This PICK5 is alive and I decided to do some PICK3's in race #3.....hit a nice PICK3 the other night for over $311 (see below)

PICK5 ticket alive > May 13, 2024
6:59 PM Bet 20500393877174 Woodbine Stbd, Race 1, $0.20  PK5  2,4 / 1-10 / 3 / 2-4,6,8 / 8    $20.00

PICK3's starting in Race #3:

May 13, 2024
7:23 PM Bet 98083098487657 Woodbine Stbd, Race 3, $0.20 PK3 1-6,9,10 / 2-4,6,8 / 6,8    $16.00
May 13, 2024
7:03 PM Bet 12536168101900 Woodbine Stbd, Race 3, $0.20 PK3 3 / 1-10 / 6     $2.00
May 13, 2024
7:02 PM Bet 22541945847037 Woodbine Stbd, Race 3, $0.20 PK3 3 / 1-10 / 6    $2.00
May 13, 2024
7:02 PM Bet 71855491828309 Woodbine Stbd, Race 3, $0.60 PK3 3 / 1-10 / 8    $6.00

This is why I did this PICK3 .....I really like my HOTPICKS in the 5th race and sometimes you catch a bomb like I did on Friday night >>>    May 10, 2024
9:17 PM Bet 57713038513174 Woodbine Stbd, Race 6, $0.20 PK3   3-9 / 3-6 / 4,6   >> payout  $311.74       $11.20(cost)

May 13, 2024
7:23 PM Bet 98083098487657 Woodbine Stbd, Race 3, $0.20 PK3 1-6,9,10 / 2-4,6,8 / 6,8     $16.00 cost

#10  @61- 1 was leading down the lane and #6 nipped him at the last stride  @14 - 1

#3 came first over and then locked wheels with another down the lane

nope....amateur racers so I could not get one of my 5 horse home...sonofabitch!

My HOTPICKS went EXACTLY how I thought.....but they bet my morning line #6 (10-1) down to 5 / 2 and he got nosed out for 3rd ...or 4th but all horses were within 1.5 lengths of each other including the winner

#8 stayed on the front and they could not catch him and I bet $30 at 9/5

That was a tough night....lots of good chances but could not cash except for win $$ on #8 in the 5th race

Friday Night Mohawk:

-weather could be sketchy but it hasn't rained hard so track is firm

-I did not play a P5 last night because I was dealing with an issue but managed to catch a great RACE 1 exactor which I spent about 25-30 in this race with 5 minutes to post

Winner went off at 55 - 1 as a first time Trotter and I loved the horse in its qualifier >>> 

May 16, 2024
7:18 PM Bet 83314961118355 Woodbine Stbd, Race 1, $2.00 EXA 9 / 1,2,5 $6.00
May 16, 2024
7:17 PM Bet 04282183388057 Woodbine Stbd, Race 1, $5.00 EXA 6,9 / 6,9 $10.00
May 16, 2024
7:17 PM Bet 64210277424322 Woodbine Stbd, Race 1, $1.00 EXA 1,2,5 / 6,9   $229.25  $6.0

-starting to cap and will post any HOTPICKS if I have them

-went 1-1 the last time with HOTPICK keys 

-rain is falling lightly at Mohawk right now....but in stops and starts

Race 1 - thinking this through, there could be 5-6 winners but looking for a KEY, I have stumbled upon #8 for some reasons:

-#8 moved well off the gate in its first race for position and will have to do the same this week

-I suspect the trainer will have to get this horse fleet footed off the gate for some Grand Circuit races to gain position so my feeling is, the work is being put in on this and they might try to see where the horse is at.

-$225K yearlings almost always have late horsepower so as long as JMAC does not burn this horse in a speed dual to the front, this horse should have plenty in the tank to fend off others when he makes his move

EXACTOR backup if keying: $2-4 > 345910 with #8

Race 2: - need to take 5-6 horses here BUT if I go with 6 horse in the first race, I think you just have to take #4,5

-if I go with #8 as a KEY, I will likely take 2368 as well

Race 3: -need to take 1 - 5 (5 horses here in my opinion)

Race 4: - take 4 horses > 4789

Race 5: - only need 2-3  horses in my opinion but if paying well and alive, I will back up 2-3 others

- just need #1, #4  and now intrigued by the equipment changes on #6 

Likely ticket > 2 horses with 2-5 horses  with 5 horses with 4 horses with 3 horses

No HOTPICKS tonight because I think every race is competitive except for RACE 5 where the horse moving up has an easier race this week, and should win on only 5 days rest and race extremely well the last two

TREND #1 Play - basically what I based my SYSTEM ON:

A.

(1) >> 2678 

(2) >> 12345

- I believe #4 and #5 are sitting on a huge mile if they get an open lane in the last 1/4 or 1/8 of the race

(3) >> 48

(4) >> 2 10 << Wheels On Fire almost ready to ascend and tonight I believe they will try for the the glory

(5) >> 2  LIVING THE BEACH LIFE (don't see a challenger in here so its either KEY or ALL!)

Cost $16

2nd Trend #1 Play ($1 ) >> B.   78 / 245 / 48 / 2 / 2   Cost = $12

                                     >> C.   78 / 25 / 48 / 2 / ALL   Cost = $16

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Trend #2 Plays - mostly middling with 1 KEY or not or  middling/KEY/Longshot race

Ticket #1 = 2478 / 1245 / 48 / 26910/ 2   Cost = $25.60

Ticket #2 >> see C. above which I think should be played since Race 5 has consistently produced a longshot and recently, RACE #1 has as well

I am likely going with all of the C. and TREND #2 option but going to check RACE CHANGES - drivers + equipment

Winners:

Race 1  > #8 won by head to half body length over #7 .... #2 looked like it would come but stalled

Race 2 > #5 Fast Louie won easy...... #1 looked like he had a shot for a while and #4 but Fast Louie pulled away

Race 3 > coming up.... #2 has a good equipment change and backing up with an exactor to my other horses 

Did not play Thurs or Friday......the programs didn't get me interested for some reason but if I would have played tonight, it would have been a MAIN TREND play:

R1 > 13789 add two longshots in 45 (7 horses)

R2 > 23467

R3 > 7

R4 > 4510... would be tempted to put in #1 too

R5 > 248

Cost = $63

R1 > #7 won << 2nd fave

R2 > #8 won << very long

R3 > #5 won << 3rd fave

R4 > #10 won << 2nd fave 

R5 > LOOKING at payouts....they seem light with a 40-1 winner and no KEY/FAVE winning

I have watching a lot of funny racing this past couple/few weeks so I am being quite selective in my capping

Traditional Play today - Main Trend"

R1 - think you only need 1, 6 here...normally, would stay away from a horse that went to the U.S. and back in a week BUT, it was a 5/8 tighter track and the weather has been good so #7 could be dangerous .....Hudon not good enough of driver but if speed battle, #5  could win here ...even #2 in a shocker or even Tricky McWicky finally to put it all together with JMAC 

LEANING TO TAKING 5 HORSES HERE

R2 - think you only need 1, 5  >>> #9 figures but that will be a tough try getting to the front... hard to catch Convoy Hall down the lane unless you are close to the front ........ think #2 could be an upset horse here > BEWARE

R3 - 4 HORSES have a shot here but I think the logical thing to do is to take 2, 4,5, and bet #8 flat/exactors .....if you have a good ticket going .....so much speed with little effort to get  to front 4 positions for those horses mentioned, I would be shocked if #8 can catch them even though the horse has a strong back half!!

R4 - keyed #3

R5 - took only #5 and #7 ...... think you just have to back up IMA DOLL and maybe #2 << will win one of these times.

My P5 Tickets:

May 25, 2024
7:16 PM Bet 54590381969555 Woodbine Stbd, Race 1, $0.20 PK5 1,6 / 1,5,9 / 4,5 / 3 / 2,6,9      $7.20
May 25, 2024
7:15 PM Bet 33545414789307 Woodbine Stbd, Race 1, $0.20 PK5 1,6,8 / 1,2,5,9 / 2,4,5,8 / 3 / 5,7  $19.20

#6 WON the 1st RACE easily! 5 - 2 (dropped from 6 - 1 at the gate!!)

RACE 1 PICK3 > May 25, 2024 
7:18 PM Bet 23673394633963 Woodbine Stbd, Race 1, $0.20 PK3 2,3,5 / 1,5,9 / 2,4,5 $5.40

RACE 3 PICK3 > backs up #3 KEY

May 25, 2024
7:21 PM Bet 82027717755929 Woodbine Stbd, Race 3, $0.60 PK3   2,4,5,8 / 7-9 / 5,7    $14.40

3 FAVES in a row after the 2nd fave win....but I have 5 horses alive so maybe I get an upset?

Payouts will be $25 for the low and maybe $150-200 for the 5th highest

Very strong wind tonight at MOHAWK in their face down the lane ....best to take fast horses for 3/4 and THE FASTEST closer consistently JUST IN CASE there is a speed battle and he can come flying late as they tire in the wind

Horses in position #9 and #10 will have trouble getting to the front vs inside 6 position speed horses

Traditional Play most likely tonight:

R1 - taking 2 lowest ML odds horses (3,5)  + #10, 4 and  >>> #9 figures if closer inside (big closer)

R2 - 2456

R3 - 1456810

R4 - 56

R5 - 348

may not play.....too expensive to play this?

Don't like the Saturday card....see you on Monday, if following!