Derby Talk

Rain is in the forecast for Derby Day....comments welcome on the impact it will have on the Derby runners...Thanks and good luck to all

Rain is in the forecast for Derby Day....comments welcome on the impact it will have on the Derby runners...Thanks and good luck to all

It's hard enough to cap a fast track &  rain complicates it even further. Sires like Langhfur & More Than Ready offspring are known to love a wet track & there are plenty of others.

vet...Just heard Rushing Falls will race Friday & not against the boys on Saturday.

D!amn. Terrible odds on her Friday. Oh well. 

1) I am a believbe's no Big Brown freak. In addition to being lightly raced, he's never been out of SoCal and, as someone else here pointed out, he has raced against no more than 6 horses. He also beat Bolt d'Or when Bolt came off a grueling San Felipe. BTW, Ruis going all out to win the San Felipe was asinine.  Just goes to show you why he's 3 for 61 lifetime.

 

  2) There are major reasons why foreign entries have a rough time in the Derby. According to drf. Com, “Since 1940, 45 horses have prepared for the Derby abroad, with two winners and one second place finisher. The two winners were Bold Forbes in 1976, who came to the race from Puerto Rico and Canonero II, who famously represented Venezuela with his win in 1971.” The best a Euro has done in the Derby is finish second in 1986 (Bold Arrangement) Refer to George Washington and Thunder Snow for Euro’s performing in the KY Derby.Now Mendelssohn is a great horse. He won by almost 19 in Dubai, but, as most of us know, Dubai in March is where most shipped in horses go to regress….with rare exception. We also know the front-end bias on that track is legendary, and it certainly was on the day Mendelssohn won.

 3) Few closers, certainly no Lookin At Lee or Commanding Curve here, with 7, 8 or maybe even 9 breaking for the lead with the potential of a blistering pace lead by Promises Fulfilled’s cheap speed and Justify out front. That scenario, in my mind, gives Vino Rosso, Good Magic, My Boy Jack and Solomini solid shots. Haven’t made my final selections, but I am leaning toward closers/stalkers.

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The Covers system knocked out part of my last post. It should read as follows:

1) I am a believer in the so-called Appolo's Curse. There is a reason why an unraced two-year old hasn't won the Derby since 1882. Justify is a great horse, but he's no Big Brown freak. In addition to being lightly race, Justify has never been out of SoCal and, as someone else here pointed out, he has raced against no more than 6 horses in any of his races. He also beat Bolt d'Oro when Bolt came off a grueling San Felipe. BTW, Ruis going all out to win the San Felipe was asinine. He is lucky the horse came out of it. After watching his Santa Anita Derby, I'm not sure he's fully right. Just goes to show you why owner Ruis is 3 for 61 lifetime. He's like a kid with a new IPhone rather than a serious owner-trainer.Magnum Moon's drifting and lugging is troublesome. I watched his ARK Derby today and he appeared to run about 2 miles in that race with all the drifting he did.

Good to hear from you Mike.

Reading my mail, Mikey.  Hope all is good with the family.  I think this is a closers' race but I think My Boy Jack has puncher's chance-especially if it rains.  Looking forward to your analysis-especially since you mentioned my two longshot closers that both ran second (just a bit of self-indulgence there, ha-ha.) Any help in the Oaks will also be appreciated.

 

Hi Guys....good to her from you. I agree with your comments. MBJ will definitely be in my unders, P&S and maybe a small winb wager.....I am going to post some interesting factoids in a few minutes.

Hope you are well....I had a pretty rough winter and just getting back into the swing of it.

And in the "for what its worth column "

Tyger I dont get ur comment it's a closers race but you boy jack has a chance,...that's what he is and he likes alop...we have no rain sat I'm less than 2 hrs away...should be good.good luck

Sorry, Boonie-that was a bit confusing. Don't listen to drunk coonasses late at night. I like My Boy Jack because there is enough early speed to set up his late run. He was wide all the way in the La. Derby-must have run 2 miles- and still got third.  Just as Vet pointed out-he moves up if the track is sloppy. Personally, I hope the weather stays nice up there and that you have a great Derby.

Like Mendelssohn, apparently horse is a better dirt horse than turf horse, last years breeders cup the horse trained better on dirt than turf but connections decided to run turf and won easily.  Will love him even better if Rayya runs a good race in Oaks because he beat her by 18 lenghts