Posted:
#1
Belmont is going to be a total slopfest and I hate taking the time to handicap in advance to just be disappointed with scratches and changes.
If the prices are halfway decent, I do think TIMELINE should win the Peter Pan, as I've been a huge fan of this horse since his debut and will be following closely moving forward as I feel he has some big time talent. I also like BAR OF GOLD in the Ruffian race 10, as Kimmel scratched from what would have been a cinch win last weekend in the slop to enter here. This horse just glides over the slop and makes everyone else look like they're standing still, statebred or not (I know that's the knock on him).
Below are my early Santa Anita plays. I will post any plays for races 6-9 later on if I have any.
GL to All!
Santa Anita
RACE 2: 5 - OMEGA MOON. Curious to see what kind of price he ends up being by post time given we're talking about a 500k Juddmonte Baffert firster by Malibu Moon. What stands out to me about this one is the lack of speed in the field. I safely assume Baffert intends on sending Garcia to the lead, and if this one is ready to fire first out which the workouts indicate he is, I'm not seeing the pace to wear him down. It looks like the main threat is the Baltas horse who has run two game efforts against some real quality competition, and a firster is really gonna have to put up a big figure to win. The other ml choice is the Pete Miller firster Captain Chaos (love the name), who should be used defensively in sequences, but the pedigree makes me question whether a first out dirt sprint win is in the cards. He should clearly be the third choice, and if you find a reason to like him, he should be a nice overlay price from that short ml. Baffert usually gives an honest account of his runners to the media prior to running, so I will look to read into what he says about the horse before betting, but all signs point to a gate to wire win for another big time Baffert 3yo.
RACE 3: 7 - STORMY ROCIT. I admit AMERICAN PASTIME could be a real handful in here if improved at all, and he is working lights out. However, if the horse is that talented, this isn't the way to show it by entering in an OC40 and cutting to 5.5f. It seems a little odd to me, odd enough to try and beat him at what should be an odds on price. There is an abundance of rocket speed in here, and logic would tell you if trying to beat the 5, to take the other Hess entry that seems to be the only horse that likes to come off the pace outside of maybe the 3 or 4, who look to probably be a notch below the top contenders. Problem is he hasn't raced in over a year and I don't wanna trust that either. I'm gonna go with what seems to me as the speed of speed in the 7 STORMY ROCIT. I like his outside post, and when you look at the times of his last two 6f races, I think the half furlong cutback should suit very well. Peter Miller yet to win with this since taking over for Mark Casse, and this looks like a well meant, well placed spot. To me, this race belongs to the speed of speed that can clear, and that's the 7.
RACE 4: 4 - ARMS RUNNER. I have an affinity for horses with gigantic purchase prices on small stud fees early in their career, and that is the case with this Peter Miller horse. He was purchased for $525k on a $2,500 stud fee which is pretty ridiculous. The reason I gravitate towards horses like this is because unlike big pedigree price tags where the offspring is "supposed to be" talented, horses like this go for huge money at the sales solely on their nature/look/ability/speed in the flesh in front of our eyes. And let's face it, that is a ton of money for the PROFESSIONALS of this sport to throw down. All that being said, his first start was impressive, breaking from the far outside post and pretty much only asking what was necessary to win the race. Miller has worked him three times since the Apr20 start which shows he came out of the race great and is eligible to improve with a start under his belt. That is the stand I'm taking in this race, but by no means is this an easy field, and after ARMS RUNNER as my top choice, I could make a case for many in here including the favorite 7 CISTRON, who came a game 3rd to Conquest Farenheight, who just ran a nice 4th in the American Turf at Churchill. If CISTRON translates his speed to the downhill, he is gonna be a real handful. Other contenders that should offer good value are two first turfers, BIG LEAGUE and WHAT'SONTHEAGENDA. And this isn't even including the 1 and 3 for D'amato and O'neill who have already won over the downhill. So for sequence play, outside of taking my stand with the 4, I could honestly make a case for the all button if you feel good in other spots.
RACE 5: 1 - AMERICAN ANTHEM. The thing I like most about this one is Mike Smith getting back on board for his only mount of the day. There are a lot of reasons to give up on this one after his last two starts showing absolutely nothing, and even in his last if you wanna give the excuse he got cooked in the duel, the others that were up front came 2nd and 3rd, where Anthem faded to second to last. I think this cutback should be just what the doctor ordered, and if he can rate a bit and stalk the early speed like in his career debut, this one should out class the field. My second choice would be the 2 KIMBEAR, who I also think should really appreciate this turnback to a sprint. Also, I like that Baffert once trained the main threat in here, and I always like picking a trainer who knows exactly what he has to beat. Only other thing I'll add is that if you're not a fan of American Anthem, toss him completely. I'd be very surprised if he ran underneath. I see him either winning or fading hard.
GRADE B PLAYS:
RACE 3: WIN - 7 - STORMY ROCIT
RACE 5: WIN - 1 - AMERICAN ANTHEM
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