Race 1: DARK OPS took an insane amount of money in his debut at Saratoga bet down to 6/5. SEA FOAM beat him home that day at a much bigger price, but that money assures me that DARK OPS must have promise and I'll take him to turn the tables. I think this race is between those two and COLLECTIVE EFFORT, as I will play against first timers in this particular statebred field.
6-4-5-1
WIN: 6
Race 2: I'm gonna play against the logical speed horses like ZEVEN and MADISON BLUES on the widener, as I don't see anyone getting an easy enough time to get it done. MISS AJA BROWN is a tough one to read, but i see the favoritism as she galloped out with a ton of energy. My knock would be taking a short price in an open race off of a trip I can't find any problems with. Maybe she proves good enough, but I'd rather take value. My top play is BELIEVE INDEED who takes a drop back to reality after two tries against starter allowance company. Her last effort at this level was solid, showing nice late kick and getting beat in a photo and if she can return to that form I think she looms a big threat. The outside posts have been winning so far this meet on the widener, and I could see her working a trip.
10-9-4-11-6-1a
Race 3: If MAKEALITTLELOVE holds form, she should win. At this level it's tough to trust a short price never proving to run two big races in a row, but her last win was challenged on the front end and against much tougher than this group. If she battles with MADAM AAMOURA and wears down, my second choice would be HOLD ON MOMMA off the claim for Gullo after a freshening.
3-4-2-6
Race 4: So this race looks to be broken down into two races, the Aug11 Uncle Chester, and Aug17 YoulikeThat. Of the two, I definitely prefer the Aug11 race to take a horse out of, as to me the 30/1ml Youlikethat won easily gate to wire proving how truly weak that maiden40k field was. I just think SET ME UP is the most likely winner in here. To me, many of these horses aren't capable of crossing first, and SET ME UP by far has the most upside coming second off the layoff after blowing the break in his last and still finishing probably best of all and galloping out strong. Javy returns for the ride and despite the bad post I think with a good break could be more forward throughout.
11-5-12-10
WIN: 11
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Race 1: DARK OPS took an insane amount of money in his debut at Saratoga bet down to 6/5. SEA FOAM beat him home that day at a much bigger price, but that money assures me that DARK OPS must have promise and I'll take him to turn the tables. I think this race is between those two and COLLECTIVE EFFORT, as I will play against first timers in this particular statebred field.
6-4-5-1
WIN: 6
Race 2: I'm gonna play against the logical speed horses like ZEVEN and MADISON BLUES on the widener, as I don't see anyone getting an easy enough time to get it done. MISS AJA BROWN is a tough one to read, but i see the favoritism as she galloped out with a ton of energy. My knock would be taking a short price in an open race off of a trip I can't find any problems with. Maybe she proves good enough, but I'd rather take value. My top play is BELIEVE INDEED who takes a drop back to reality after two tries against starter allowance company. Her last effort at this level was solid, showing nice late kick and getting beat in a photo and if she can return to that form I think she looms a big threat. The outside posts have been winning so far this meet on the widener, and I could see her working a trip.
10-9-4-11-6-1a
Race 3: If MAKEALITTLELOVE holds form, she should win. At this level it's tough to trust a short price never proving to run two big races in a row, but her last win was challenged on the front end and against much tougher than this group. If she battles with MADAM AAMOURA and wears down, my second choice would be HOLD ON MOMMA off the claim for Gullo after a freshening.
3-4-2-6
Race 4: So this race looks to be broken down into two races, the Aug11 Uncle Chester, and Aug17 YoulikeThat. Of the two, I definitely prefer the Aug11 race to take a horse out of, as to me the 30/1ml Youlikethat won easily gate to wire proving how truly weak that maiden40k field was. I just think SET ME UP is the most likely winner in here. To me, many of these horses aren't capable of crossing first, and SET ME UP by far has the most upside coming second off the layoff after blowing the break in his last and still finishing probably best of all and galloping out strong. Javy returns for the ride and despite the bad post I think with a good break could be more forward throughout.
Race 5: ABBREVIATE to me is a total cinch single and most likely winner. I expect 5/2 to be a pipe dream and for everyone to gravitate here given the connections. For second, it looks obvious to take BOOMBOOMBOOM over HOLLYWOOD ROYAL given BOOM missed the break badly and pinched off and still managed to pass HOLLYWOOD ROYAL, but that was at 5.5f and now we're going 7f on the widener. At a much better exacta price, I think HOLLYWOOD ROYAL will hopefully be more settled with the lasix and less keen early, being able to settle easier on the lead and enjoy the extra distance instead of struggling through it. I'll use BOOMBOOMBOOM along with JAUNT to round out the triple.
8-2-4-1
WIN: 8
EXACTA: 8/2
TRIFECTA: 8/2/1,4,6. 8/4/1,2
Race 7: I think MISS KATIE MAE is the most talented horse in this race, plain and simple. I know most will see this as a very contentious race that will be decided tightly and they're right, but to me this horse has no excuse to lose this race. There is plenty of speed signed on with TRUE CHARM, MORE ROYALTY, and EILA all looking to be fast early, and with the course playing very fair I think that gives every opportunity to MISS KATIE MAE to save ground under new rider Castellano, who had a tough Saratoga meet and has been zoned in since returning to Belmont, and I think is the perfect guy to remedy who's had promise since the nice showing against Lady Aurelia at Keeneland in April. Her form is sharper than it appears as well. Two back she ran huge and just got beat by a totally loaded horse, and last out was for some reason hustled early to get more on the pace, but took enough of the grunt of a hot pace to flatten and proved that making one late run is her preferred style. If she gets a clean trip, I expect her to get up.
2-3-5-7
WIN: 2
Race 8: ISLAND REWARD looks to be the horse to beat and the cutback should help. Servis Dubb are such high % guys and they surely are the most likely winner. Great post and tactical style for this race as well. ANOTHER GENIUS is taking a big time drop in class here, and for 35k a good chance someone will claim her so you have to figure the horse is well meant to win today, and Jose stays. Not in love with current form but proven at the track and distance and can't be ruled out from win contention. TAPA LIATH is probably my third choice but I don't like the layoff or the fact she's unproven at the distance. Martin is such a high % trainer that you always have to watch the money and take a long look. ACTIVE RUNNER would be the sneaky horse to get loose on the lead and brave late at a big price for Mike Maker and Saez. These guys have a tendency to be very greasy and this one definitely has a bit of a stench to it. There is zero indication that this horse can get 7f on the widener with rails out 9ft and very few if any this meet being able to wire in those circumstances, but I definitely don't rule it out.
10-2-4-1
Race 5: ABBREVIATE to me is a total cinch single and most likely winner. I expect 5/2 to be a pipe dream and for everyone to gravitate here given the connections. For second, it looks obvious to take BOOMBOOMBOOM over HOLLYWOOD ROYAL given BOOM missed the break badly and pinched off and still managed to pass HOLLYWOOD ROYAL, but that was at 5.5f and now we're going 7f on the widener. At a much better exacta price, I think HOLLYWOOD ROYAL will hopefully be more settled with the lasix and less keen early, being able to settle easier on the lead and enjoy the extra distance instead of struggling through it. I'll use BOOMBOOMBOOM along with JAUNT to round out the triple.
8-2-4-1
WIN: 8
EXACTA: 8/2
TRIFECTA: 8/2/1,4,6. 8/4/1,2
Race 7: I think MISS KATIE MAE is the most talented horse in this race, plain and simple. I know most will see this as a very contentious race that will be decided tightly and they're right, but to me this horse has no excuse to lose this race. There is plenty of speed signed on with TRUE CHARM, MORE ROYALTY, and EILA all looking to be fast early, and with the course playing very fair I think that gives every opportunity to MISS KATIE MAE to save ground under new rider Castellano, who had a tough Saratoga meet and has been zoned in since returning to Belmont, and I think is the perfect guy to remedy who's had promise since the nice showing against Lady Aurelia at Keeneland in April. Her form is sharper than it appears as well. Two back she ran huge and just got beat by a totally loaded horse, and last out was for some reason hustled early to get more on the pace, but took enough of the grunt of a hot pace to flatten and proved that making one late run is her preferred style. If she gets a clean trip, I expect her to get up.
2-3-5-7
WIN: 2
Race 8: ISLAND REWARD looks to be the horse to beat and the cutback should help. Servis Dubb are such high % guys and they surely are the most likely winner. Great post and tactical style for this race as well. ANOTHER GENIUS is taking a big time drop in class here, and for 35k a good chance someone will claim her so you have to figure the horse is well meant to win today, and Jose stays. Not in love with current form but proven at the track and distance and can't be ruled out from win contention. TAPA LIATH is probably my third choice but I don't like the layoff or the fact she's unproven at the distance. Martin is such a high % trainer that you always have to watch the money and take a long look. ACTIVE RUNNER would be the sneaky horse to get loose on the lead and brave late at a big price for Mike Maker and Saez. These guys have a tendency to be very greasy and this one definitely has a bit of a stench to it. There is zero indication that this horse can get 7f on the widener with rails out 9ft and very few if any this meet being able to wire in those circumstances, but I definitely don't rule it out.
Race 9: Struggling to see where the speed is gonna come from which really makes the race intriguing. My guess is REALM with Jose Ortiz on board will take the honors especially being on the rail. He flashed some sprint speed very early in his career and has proved to be forwardly placed in races at this distance. Jose separates himself from the pack by being aggressive in paceless races exactly like this one, and I really like his chances. I'll take him on top today. YOUR TO BLAME is a giant threat and deserving favorite on the cutback and Chad Brown is so good with adding blinkers. The blinkers could improve his early position, but he is still a proven closer with the pace not shaping up to favor him and that in itself is enough to try and beat. VULCAN'S FORGE has to be considered a win threat if you like REALM, which I do, so getting back to what looks to be his preferred surface could make him very live, but he is a dead closer and I'm against that in this field. MO TOWN had alot of promise as a 2yo after winning the Remsen but hasn't shown form since. The last effort at 7f was encouraging, and with Johnny V cherry picking back on, maybe this is his day to regain that 2yo form. DOYOUKNOWSOMETHING has a great post for his style, and this cutback should help his late kick. For some reason Cancel rushed up to challenge for the lead in an awkardly run 4 horse race just last week, and it cost him late. Today, he should sit a nice stalking trip in 3-4th and have nice punch late to try and get up. Running back this quick must be a positive, and I give him a big shot today but the switch to a one turn race hasn't been done in a long time, and this is a salty group to trust something new.
1-7-2-6
WIN: 1
EXACTA: 1/2,7 key box
Race 10: RISKY SOUR snapped his whip down the stretch which didnt allow Irad to go right late and switch leads. I dont think it would have gotten him the win, but it leaves I guess a bit to be desired given he was also sort of bottled in during the beginning of stretch, and the horse has been showing some life of late despite the 0-33. RISKY SOUR only has two 2nd place finishes so I think that adds an upside seeing the form turnaround. He's a very capable winner that people won't wanna take as a favorite and I wont leave him off any sequence or exacta. KIERLAND is claimed by a barn that isnt know much for dabbling in that department, and doing it off Mike Maker is tough so definitely a big negative, but his trip in last was crushed early when getting pinched and then being uncomfortable and making a middle move before flattening. He is definitely the trip handicappers pick out of that race and will probably take money. He is way dressed down and could prove best. I also expect a more aggressive ride with Saez back on. ZJ WINS is a capable winner, but it doesnt show much confidence being off since the private purchase and now up for 40k in a weak field. Maybe he is much the best, but I think its a negative. After that I dont see much for legit win candidates. My top pick will depend on paddock report and tote board, but it'll be between RISKY SOUR and KIERLAND.
7-6-5-11
***BEST BETS***
RACE 4: WIN 11 SET ME UP
RACE 5: WIN: 8 ABBREVIATE
EXACTA: 8/2
TRIFECTA: 8/2/1,4,6. 8/4/1,2
RACE 7: WIN 2 MISS KATIE MAE
RACE 9: WIN: 1 REALM
EXACTA: 1/2,7 key box
GL TO ALL!
Race 9: Struggling to see where the speed is gonna come from which really makes the race intriguing. My guess is REALM with Jose Ortiz on board will take the honors especially being on the rail. He flashed some sprint speed very early in his career and has proved to be forwardly placed in races at this distance. Jose separates himself from the pack by being aggressive in paceless races exactly like this one, and I really like his chances. I'll take him on top today. YOUR TO BLAME is a giant threat and deserving favorite on the cutback and Chad Brown is so good with adding blinkers. The blinkers could improve his early position, but he is still a proven closer with the pace not shaping up to favor him and that in itself is enough to try and beat. VULCAN'S FORGE has to be considered a win threat if you like REALM, which I do, so getting back to what looks to be his preferred surface could make him very live, but he is a dead closer and I'm against that in this field. MO TOWN had alot of promise as a 2yo after winning the Remsen but hasn't shown form since. The last effort at 7f was encouraging, and with Johnny V cherry picking back on, maybe this is his day to regain that 2yo form. DOYOUKNOWSOMETHING has a great post for his style, and this cutback should help his late kick. For some reason Cancel rushed up to challenge for the lead in an awkardly run 4 horse race just last week, and it cost him late. Today, he should sit a nice stalking trip in 3-4th and have nice punch late to try and get up. Running back this quick must be a positive, and I give him a big shot today but the switch to a one turn race hasn't been done in a long time, and this is a salty group to trust something new.
1-7-2-6
WIN: 1
EXACTA: 1/2,7 key box
Race 10: RISKY SOUR snapped his whip down the stretch which didnt allow Irad to go right late and switch leads. I dont think it would have gotten him the win, but it leaves I guess a bit to be desired given he was also sort of bottled in during the beginning of stretch, and the horse has been showing some life of late despite the 0-33. RISKY SOUR only has two 2nd place finishes so I think that adds an upside seeing the form turnaround. He's a very capable winner that people won't wanna take as a favorite and I wont leave him off any sequence or exacta. KIERLAND is claimed by a barn that isnt know much for dabbling in that department, and doing it off Mike Maker is tough so definitely a big negative, but his trip in last was crushed early when getting pinched and then being uncomfortable and making a middle move before flattening. He is definitely the trip handicappers pick out of that race and will probably take money. He is way dressed down and could prove best. I also expect a more aggressive ride with Saez back on. ZJ WINS is a capable winner, but it doesnt show much confidence being off since the private purchase and now up for 40k in a weak field. Maybe he is much the best, but I think its a negative. After that I dont see much for legit win candidates. My top pick will depend on paddock report and tote board, but it'll be between RISKY SOUR and KIERLAND.
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