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After an exciting derby weekend with a clear and undoubtedly track bias to inside speed (don't let any writers tell you different), we're back to Belmont!
Before I post my picks and opinions, just a couple comments on the derby. First, I'm so happy for Always Dreaming and the connections. I had a special affinity for this horse going back to the beginning of the year, and particularly after his OC75 win leading up to the Florida Derby where I noticed the capabilities of this colt going forward. Never have I felt this strongly about a derby horse (outside of American Pharaoh) being the much best winner, and I put my money where my mouth was at 30/1 future bet before the Fla derby. Of course it's nice to cash a fat ticket like that, but as we all know this game is about forecasting, particularly for a derby horse where it's not about race dynamics and pace/flow etc, but about the potential and development of a horse, and to foresee this horse's development and be spot on, it's just a great feeling. I think he will have no problem beating the Preakness field with the main threat being Chad Brown's Cloud Computing, and it looks like Always Dreaming came out of the race in great shape, and I honestly don't think he even had to give his best on Saturday with plenty left in the tank. If he does his job, the Belmont will be an extremely tall task, but I will be there rooting for him all the way!
Ok, now that I've almost broken my arm patting myself on the back, below are my plays for the Belmont card today.
GL to all and congrats to Always Dreaming, an impossible horse not to root for, and an impeccable name for a derby winner because let's face it...in life aren't we all ALWAYS DREAMING?!
race 1: 3 - AMERICAN PIONEER. process of elimination pretty much brings me to select the 3. He's the horse that could win by a mile. Huge class drop. Crappy race.
race 2: 3 - VEIL. have a feeling Irad could get the early double. Veil to me has the most eligibility to improve and should be forward second off long layoff and as a 4yo against some younger. not impressed much by the field and in a race like this taking a short price is dangerous, so I will key the 3 in second in exacta as protection, and go deep in the pick 5, almost making the second leg of the early double a little bit of a hedge.
race 3: 6 - SADIE BE GOOD. I think this one is better than the rest. horse ran huge in a very fast race against better and I like the post being outside of the other speeds. Could get the lead or just sit right off of Bow town Cat. Lezcano back to ride and like how she got on the track last week. If the 6 doesn't win, you have to think there is a nice little duel between the 3,6 and possibly 2. For pace dynamics, if 6 isn't the speed of speed, have to side with 1 or 4.
race 4: 5 - IF YOU SAY SO. Chad and Joel second off layoff and since entering his barn. First trip was troubled and she probably needed it anyway. I expect her to be more involved around the far turn since she was steadied in last when attempting that. The extra distance should help and six nice breezes should make her more than fit against a field logical choices that just dont wanna win. Second choice is Empress of the Nile, as I cannot see much speed in here and Rajiv should be able to control things up top. Gonna be tough to get by her if fractions are slow on this inner which should be fast by Wed, but ultimately I think the 5 is the class of the field.
race 5: 10 - SCARLET GODDESS. This is a personal redemption play for me. Last summer I was standing at the finish line with a live pick 5 that included her at 50/1 with a will pay of $22,000, and she ran her eyeballs out first time on turf off the claim for Gullo and got nosed on the final stride. Watching live I honestly thought she held on, but was beaten by the favorite with the lowest payout. Longest photo finish of my life! She finally gets back on turf today against a pretty weak field, and although there is more speed signed on today than last summer, I think she is more than capable of a winning effort. I also want to include FAUTIVE at a huge price. Last race was first time Chatterpaul got her on turf since the claim and it was a very wide trip, but she had a good run to her. Second on turf should be an improvement, and if Camacho can save ground this one could run big at a big price.
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