Posted:
#1
race 2: 4-5-1-7 I don't think NEWS ANCHOR can lose. I'm hoping the 1,7 and 8 can take some money to keep the price around his 6/5ml which to me is worth a win bet as much as I hate betting short priced favorites. This horse was bet like he couldnt lose, and he simply was very green and uncomfortable buried on the rail in his last start. With a smaller field and better post to maneuver today, I find it very difficult given any improvement whatsoever for this horse to not run by them all.
WIN: 4
race 3: 3-1-5-4 A lot of people seem to be on HAMMER'S VISION for Lynch off a 6 month layoff, but he's actually never won at this distance on dirt and only ran once. Although a capable winner (as everyone in this short field is), I don't trust taking on top especially if he takes money from the 5/1ml. HEY JABBER JAW looks to be lone speed and it might be tough for multiple horses to get by given the pace projection. My top pick is GREAT STUFF for one of the two Jacobson entries. He is so good at holding if not improving horses form off wins, and I think he was just getting his legs under him late in that parx win off a 9-month layoff. I know hes gotta rally from the back with no pace, but if he's as sharp as I think, it might not matter.
EXACTA: 1,3 box.
race 4: 5-1-8-2 I'm against JAHAAFEL in here as a short priced favorite, as I bet him last out thinking the slightest improvement would get the job done against that field, and I simply cannot get over the fact he couldnt get by Nowinadrive, who cannot win and now seems to be going backwards. He appears to have a tactical advantage in here along with the best speed figs and the most eligibility to improve along with an eligibility to like the added distance, so maybe I'm being stupid and stubborn. I'm gonna take a small shot against him with Chad's entry CULTURE CARRIER as the blinkers go on. This one looked to show some ability down the stretch of his debut, and he was clearly uncomfortable and very green early getting shuffled back to last. Horses can take massive steps up in their second career start going long on the turf, and I love the fact Chad adds blinkers here. I also don't put it out of the question for Javy to get involved early at this distance and for him to be forwardly placed. Wish there was some moisture in the ground given his pedigree, but the race is coming back strong and he was closing on them so that's enough for me. Curious to see the price at post time as I can see this being a wise guy horse and taking sharp money. Anything above 3/1 is ok with me.
WIN: 5
EXACTA: 5/1,2,8 key box.
race 6: 10-11-5-1 I think this is totally HIGH JINGO's race to lose. The field isnt full of much talent, and she has the right to simply be the best horse. Proven from off the pace and I expect Paco to sit an ideal trip stalking the speed, which should be SWAYED coming off a freshening and Irad snagging the mount. She is clearly the biggest threat in my opinion, but seemingly needing the lead with that 11 post isn't ideal. If there is a cooker up front, the only two closers I'd take is ITSINTHESTARS and LAURAS PATRIOT who is in sneaky good form.
WIN: 10
EXACTA: 10/1,5,11
race 7: 3-6-11-10 This is a race where you'd love to hear what the trainers think of horses like NO DOZING and SOUPER TAPIT going turf for first time, as that would make all the difference in a top selection. Those two are clearly the most talented race horses in this field, but surface is the million dollar question. I think this is actually a spot to get sneaky value out of Chad's entry LET'S GET LOUD. I love that he's freshened and has a dressed down speed fig comparatively to the field. Javy stays and you know he's gonna run a good race. FACT FINDING is another ? mark as he stretches out second off a long layoff. That start last month was most likely a prep to go longer, so he's really tough to leave off any multi race tickets. My stand against is anyone out of the Funtastic race, which sort of contradicts my top selection, but again it's more a matter of value along with the lack of proven success on the surface and distance for the other contenders.
WIN: 3
EXACTA: 3/11 cold. 6,10,11/3 backup.
race 8: 3-10-7-9 Tricky little turf sprint. Linda having two including the class and lone speed for a gradually improving horse is very scary, but I really dont like the current form of WHISKEY SEVEN. For sequences, I'd use her two, SANDY'Z SLEW, and the shipper ROBEY'S BOY assuming they wouldnt ship up to NY for a statebred OC this late in the season and protect him unless he was well meant and in sharp form.
race 9: 11-3-8-1 A difficult finale that could have a bunch of possible winners. I'm gonna go back to the well with DATA DEPENDENT, hoping to get a solid price after a disappointing loss at even money to a 52/1 bomber. That should make people pass her up this time around especially with a giant purchase price firster in here for Chad as well to attract all the money. I also think MOVIEMAKER used that sprint as a prep for this, which he should like much better going this mile distance and Casse is solid with second time starters on the turf. Concerned about getting pace to run into, especially if the 13 doesnt draw in and the 1 not being proven to have the same speed on turf, but Paco and Kendrick are aggressive riders.
WIN: 11
EXACTA: 11/1,3,8 key box.
GL TO ALL!
Hot Forum Topics
