2017 KENTUCKY DERBY

Had to start a new thread as yesterday's Kentucky Oaks was one of the worst beats of my career. As most of you who read my Oaks Preview know, I keyed my main four horses in exotics. As such, among my plays I:


Had 13-2-12-6 Superfecta. Came 13-12-2-6. Paid $85,555 (Would've been way higher with 13-2-12-6 as #2 was 36-1 odds and 12 was 12-1 odds)
Had $100 Exacta 13-2. Would've paid $27,800 ($556 for $2).
Had $4 Triple 13-2-12. 13-12-2 paid $2863 for $1 (Would've been way higher with 13-2-12)


Still feel like I got punched in the stomach.


Thanks for letting me vent over my coffee.


KENTUCKY DERBY ANALYSIS
POST TIME: 6:45 PM EST



#1 LOOKING AT LEE - He got into the Derby because two horses ahead of him in rankings dropped out. In addition to losing to Classic Empire 3 times, he’s finished behind Practical Joke, Sonneteer and Untrapped in previous races. Would be an after thought here but for his eye catching 3rd place finish to Classic Empire in the Arkansas Derby in his last where he was bobbing and weaving through traffic taking one of the most circuitous stretch runs you will ever see. That performance was significantly a lifetime best. He'd still have to improve more here to contend and regression is more likely.


#2 THUNDER SNOW - Irish runner developed gradually on turf last year overseas and has stepped up his game with the transition to dirt in his two races this year, winning the UAE Derby in his latest. Godolphin owned horses have been firing bullets recently in the US. At 1 3/16 miles, the UAE Derby is the longest Kentucky Derby prep race. Not only did he win at that distance, but no other horse in the Kentucky Derby field has run further than 1 1/8 miles. The biggest question for any Derby horse is if he can handle running 1 1/4 miles. In the UAE Derby, "Snow" was able to re-rally in the late stages of the race after veering out a bit, but then straightening out and surging past the winner in a scintillating stretch drive and victory. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TcVWej-Va0Q). Another factor in the Derby is the uniqueness of having such a huge field (which is new to just about every horse) and the traffic it causes. "Snow" won the UAE Derby in a 16 horse field and last year ran in an 18 horse field. He has a nice stalking style and typically sits slightly off the front runners, and he pounces when the leaders tire in the final turn. This style typically helps him avoid traffic problems. Now the downside: No horse has ever finished in the top 4 in the Derby shipping from Dubai. So the travel may be a daunting task. The runner-up in the UAE Derby, Epicharis, opted to skip today to rest for the Preakness. Throw in that he gets first time Lasix. The only knock is the concern about the travel. He's a must use for me.


#3 FAST AND ACCURATE - His connections had to supplement him today for a hefty price as they never expected him to be a Derby horse until he won his most recent, the Spiral at Turfway Park. Having said that, this horse has never won a dirt surface with all win on turf or polytrack. His one dirt race was awful. Has some early speed and could be in the mix early but if he beats more than a few horses, I'd be shocked.


#4 UNTRAPPED - He wasn't good enough to qualify for the Derby based upon the preps until a horse that finished in front of him, Malagacy, dropped out based upon his uninspiring effort in that race. Not a good sign for Untrapped. In both the Rebel and Arkansas Derby, he was able to attack and contend at the top of the stretch but stamina became an issue. Not completely horrible but not for me.


#5 ALWAYS DREAMING - Ran a strong sprint in his second career race at Saratoga last year and then took a 5 month hiatus. His first two races back this year were uninspiring wins at Tampa but then he threw in a monster effort winning the Florida Derby with a staggering sheet number and improvement. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O0Wydt1VPr0). Has a versatile front running style and has never been worse than 3rd and hasn't lost any of his three races since switching to trainer Todd Pletcher. However, Pletcher has horrible history of horses coming to the Derby off preps in Florida and also with horses that showed remarkable improvement in their most recent race. He will possibly be the favorites here. Obviously a contender but not one I am using except for the bottom of tickets.


#6 STATE OF HONOR - Ran 2nd in the Florida Derby to #5 but I was not overly impressed. Sat a cozy trip behind the leaders and the rail parted like the Red Sea in the "Ten Commandments" and he didn't explode through it. He's heavily raced (his 10 starts are tied for the most of any horse here) and his sheet numbers just aren't fast enough and he is unlikely to improve. Not for me.


#7 GIRVIN - Four career races with three wins and a second (all on dry tracks) mostly against second rate competition. Horses coming up from the Fairgrounds in New Orleans have not fared well recently in the Derby. Churchill's leading jockey, Hernandez, chose McCracken over this one. There also have been some rumors about a foot problem. Not for me.

#8 HENCE - Has raced at 5 different tracks and has a 2nd here at Churchill and has won on a wet track. Strong closer who will come from far back and charge late in the race. Comes in off a nice win in the Sundland Derby (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W0HtHUgqwvE) in a race that set up nicely for a closer like him. He has shown consistent development and an interesting pattern. Needs to improve again but if the race set up a nicely, he's not without a chance. The race appears better now seeing #9 Irap won the Bluegrass 13 days later and 2nd palce finisher, Conquest Mo Money finished a strong 2nd in the Arkansas Derby. Could definitely hit the ticket.


#9 IRAP - Beaten soundly by #8 in the Sunland Derby but came back 13 days later with a staggering win and sheet number in the Bluegrass at Keeneland. )https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6oUHCFjpdVo). Was able to muscle to the lead in somewhat of a tepid early pace and was able to hold off the field. Note though it was only a 7 horse race but he beat the #15, #19 and #16 here. Asmussen must have known something as the horse was maiden before that win in the Bluegrass. Horses that show remarkable improvement right before the Derby typically regress and I don't like the pattern of recent races. The winner of the Bluegrass hasn't won the Derby since 1991. While the sheet figure in his last was staggering, I am inclined to go against and not use.


#10 GUNNEVERA - Was awesome winning the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0xZeidLp2fI) then dug himself too deep of a hole in the Florida Derby. Stone cold, dead closer who will be far back early. If he gets a fast early pace and can avoid traffic, he will be flying down the stretch in the end. His figure in the Fountain of Youth is eye popping but may have taken something out of him. He is at the mercy of how the race unfolds early but has a top pilot in Castellano aboard despite the fact that Castellano has never won the Derby. Trainer Sano has never had a horse in the Derby before. This horse is the "X" factor.

#11 BATTLE OF MIDWAY - Not since Apollo in 1882 has a horse that was unraced at age 2 won the Derby. You're still reading? Very impressive performance on the fron end in the Santa Anita Derby finishing 2nd against Gormley. He was on the front end in a tough contested pace and battled strongly to the wire. I was really impressed with the SA Derby effort and this horse should be a presence early today. Trainer, Jerry Hollendorfer has done well at Churchill. I just don't think he's fast enough and the distance is a real concern. I think he should have skipped this for the Preakness, where I would be intrigued. Sadly, I can't use him today.


#12 SONNETEER - Consistent deep closer who sits far back early and comes with a hard late run. Still a maiden (after 10 races), there are better closers in here and he's just not fast enough. Toss.


#13 J BOYS ECHO - Was super impressive winning the Gotham with a very solid sheet number but I thought that race set up perfectly for him with a cushy, ground saving trip. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d2KxtcQ7RGA). He regressed in the Bluegrass. Has a nice stalking mid-pack running style and is familiar with this track and has a locally based trainer in Romans. Not completely out of it but in my opinion, he would need a perfect trip and things to fall his way and I don't see it happening. Could hit bottom of ticket.


#14 CLASSIC EMPIRE - Thought he was the likely favorite but may actually end up offering value. Dominant last year in his two year old campaign. 5 wins in 7 career races. Scared the heck out of the racing community last year in the Hopeful when something happened at beginning of race and he tossed his rider and the horse had to be vanned off. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A_RMce8NzGo). Thankfully, he bounced back with the addition of blinkers with an eye popping and exciting win in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xIqVGP5wdSU). If he runs like he did in the Juvenile, he will be really tough. However, he hasn't shown the same form in his two races at age 3. Something wasn't right in his first start in January and they found an abscess in his hoof two days after the race. He bounced back to win the Arkansas Derby in a race that many think was underwhelming although exciting. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y7u3cP9PQYo). The key to horse racing is value. "Empire" certainly is a contender. I thought he'd be the favorite but as the likely 3rd or 4th favorite, he is offering greater value than I expected. Has to be considered in the mix.

#15 MCCRACKEN - Fans of the movie "Slapshot" may enjoy the nostalgic name. LOL. Five career races and 4 wins including three here at Churchill. Question is do you give him a pass for his 3rd place finish in the Bluegrass where he hung in the stretch and got beat by today's #9 and #19. He may have come into that race a bit rusty as he came down with an ankle injury soon after his impressive win in the Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa. He has a bad habit of getting in traffic and losing ground in turns and the #15 post won't help that cause. If you give him a pass in the Bluegrass, you have to consider here. His figures are solid but I am not sure I can make a clear case for him on the top of tickets but have to consider him in exotic bets.


#16 TAPWRIT - Was bought for a staggering $1.2 million before he began his racing career. Solid two year old campaign and broke the track record at 1 1/16th miles at Tampa in January. Understandably he bounced in the Bluegrass and threw in a dud. Should give a better effort today. He won a stakes race at Gulfstream in the mud last year. Pletcher's 1 for 45 record in the Derby is enough to scare off many but he will break through one day soon. He needs a solid pace to run at and could get one here. Would have to fire a lifetime best in my opinion here to win but is definitely capable of hitting the ticket.


#17 IRISH WAR CRY - 4 wins in 5 lifetime races but threw a complete clunker in the Fountain of Youth two back. His win in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct in his last was outstanding with an eye popping sheet number. Which Irish War Cry do we get today? Has solid early speed and will be on or near lead early on. No horse that won the Wood has won the Derby since 2003 and nobody he beat in this year's Wood is in here. His trainer, Graham Motion won the Derby in 2011 with Animal Kingdom and is a good one but had no explanation for the horse's flop in the Fountain of Youth. If he races anything like he did in the Wood, he is a contender. Have to include on tickets but more inclined to go lightly on the top end.


#18 GORMLEY - He won the Santa Anita Derby and has won 4 of his 6 career races but his two losses were flops. The win in the SA Derby set up perfectly for him and wasn't overly impressive in my opinion. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=keLRgFlz8aY). He has run a strong race in the mud. Has only beaten one horse in this field and that's #11. Not completely without a chance and could hit the ticket but not using on top part of tickets.


#19 PRACTICAL JOKE - Hard trying horse who has finished in the top 3 in all 6 career races. Likes to sit back early and come with a strong late rally. Chad Brown is an outstanding trainer (who is on fire) and he is ridden by Joel Rosario, who won the 2013 Derby aboard Orb. Was a very impressive two year old and ran a very nice race in the Juvenile shipping from New York to California for the Breeder's Cup late last year. His sheet numbers put him in top three horses in this race. He hasn't won at over a mile and hasn't run on a wet track yet. There are some questions and there is a lot to like. He has to avoid a wide trip but definitely is in the mix, offers solid odds and has a chance to win.


#20 PATCH - Sentimental horse with just one eye. Awww. Love that. Did not run as a two year old and has the same obstacle to overcome as #11 to become the first horse to win the Derby without racing at age 2 since 1882. Only three career races. Post 20 and not fast enough and hasn't beaten a horse in this field. Love the story but have to toss.


The key to betting horses in big races like this in a field of 20 is to look for value, which isn't always about finding the horse that is most likely to win. That's not always the easiest concept to comprehend. I am using 4 horses in the mix on top: #10 GUNNEVERA, #2 THUNDER SNOW, #19 PRACTICAL JOKE AND #14 CLASSIC EMPIRE in that order of priority. Pace makes the race and GUNNEVERA will need a fast and contested pace to close into so he is somewhat at the mercy of what occurs early. THUNDER SNOW has an interesting post, has experience in big fields and could get a ground saving trip at big odds and has tremendous value. PRACTICAL JOKE may have been my choice had he drawn better but that adds to his value and intrigue. I thought CLASSIC EMPIRE could be the favorite but early on isn't and may be decent value. He should fire his best race of 2017 and if can go back to what he was last year, will be quite tough.


#8 HENCE is intriguing and has a chance, #17 IRISH WAR CRY and #15 MCCRACKEN easily could hit the ticket (although I don't love on the win end) and #16 TAPWRIT has value to include in bottom of tickets #5 ALWAYS SMILING obviously has a chance as one of the favorites but I am not high on him.


Complete tosses: 1,3,4,6,7,11,12,20

best of luck GH

IMO the most value of all is Tapwrit. Solid his entire career. If he wins his last prep(or just runs respectably), he's 7-1 today. Last I looked at live odds he was 27-1. 

Oh yeah the track variant was a 07 for Florida Derby day. 

NICE STUFF GLYDE and interesting insight. Much appreciated. McCraken is definitely solid but he'd need a lifetime best by several points IMO to win this. Definitely has a chance. The first 3/4s and how contested it is will dictate the race for sure. GL

McCracken will b in the money I bet

great info, did a 2, 10, 14, 16 exacta box  GL with your bets