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Southern Methodist at Nevada (12/24/2009)

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Posted: #26
Quote Originally Posted by Irisheyez:

The more I look at my capping bruthas and really think about this game.......I am wondering if June and his upstarts can keep it within the margin.........for Pete's sake......they haven't been to a bowl since the Poney Express with James and Dickerson were in the backfield 25 years ago!!!! 

I have to think about this a little more and talk to some cappers on this one......

Starting to feel the same way irish. Loved nevada early, starting to lean SMU

 
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Posted: #27

Love Nevada been great ATS all year, but def. a running team and if Lipincott def. out along with Tuaua (not lookin up how to spell, but regardless great back.) This team is in trouble. Cant see Nevada covering if kaepernick has to throw over 30 passes. Is Tuaua def. out? have not seen anything suggesting this other then by the post of James gandolfini.

 
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Posted: #28
Shouldn't say great ATS, just been a good cover team for me when I take em.
 
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Posted: #29
yea i know nevada gave boise st. all they could handle but that was there superbowl...S-M-U ;S  run D is ranked 88th and it;s pass D is ranked  82nd,,  however nevada;s pass D is ATROCIOUS ranked second-to-last in the nation...so look for sky high S-M-U to do some BUSSINESS vs this D..coach june jones is the master of the run and shoot,, running it in the NFL with warren moon and the houston oilers...this squad of mustangs will be playing in the biggest bowl game thus far of their careers...the current spread at my book,, VIP.... is nevada by 12 and a half points...however S-M-U;S entire season has come by overcoming the odds...POSTERS TAKE THE POINTS BUT YOU WANT NEED THE POINTS...i am calling for the upset,, june jones goes back home and wins the SHERATON HAWAII BOWL...S-M-U 38----33........................
 
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Posted: #30
Was just reading does any one know if there is any truth that lippincott  is out with toe and will not play ant Taua has flunked out of school this will defiantly change this game two 1000 yard backs out and playing a fresh and a soph line has dropped to 12 and i like the under now at 72.5 ..
 
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Posted: #31
Taua is academically ineligible..didn't travel with the team. Lippincott had foot surgery so he's out as well.

https://espn.go.com/blog/ncfnation/post/_/id/16197/sheraton-hawaii-bowl-nevada-8-4-vs-smu-7-5
https://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/bowls09/news/story?id=4758302
 
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Posted: #32
That 'Vada Rb's plural news has really cut into what I was gonna do here. I had this is my second highest rated bet. Though I have learnt the hard way; chill out until grades come out.

The Wolpac was killing it on O to end the year. Really wanted to give them a go here. Not any more however ...

Now I'ma gonna have to buy 15 for SMU and go with Dickerson and James pre-Death Penalty team for .024u. Just to have something to watch with Wednesday nites NBA work.

Merry Christmas covers.com!

bigeiii
 
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Posted: #33
Again..... bowl dogs before New  Years Day.
 
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Posted: #34

Over 72.5 with Nevada's star running backs out for tomorrow?  Starting to lean SMU and the other under here.  Wonder why the line hasn't dropped more.  Not sure if SMU is really good enough to hang with Nevada even with Taua and Lippincott out.  SMU wins over Rice, UTEP, and Tulane were all within 3-5 point margins and I would hardly call those teams very competitive.  SMU even lost to Marshall and early on to Washington State!!!  I'm really confused at what the right play is on this one.  Might end up being a no play. 

 
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Posted: #35

Quote Originally Posted by T-REX55:

Was just reading does any one know if there is any truth that lippincott  is out with toe and will not play ant Taua has flunked out of school this will defiantly change this game two 1000 yard backs out and playing a fresh and a soph line has dropped to 12 and i like the under now at 72.5 ..

lippincottt says doubtful

 
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Posted: #36
Both starting backs for Nevada out.  Leaning under now.
 
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Posted: #37
Quote made.. NV rolls.. enough said... No fade on oneself anymore... NEV>>>ROLLS ROYCE.... late. peace out KK
 
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Posted: #38
Ohhh Dear.. the numbers say UNDER....what to do.
 
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Posted: #39
SMU +13
 
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Posted: #40

UNDER IT IS.. she kissed me and said SO!!!! what it would be like to be a LESBIAN!!!!! licking folds all day, What a nightmare. If this game hits 72 then I QUIT....

As indicated by the movement of the total, the betting public is favoring the UNDER in this game
The betting public is correct when moving the total in SMU games 61.8% of the time since 1992. (34-21)
The betting public is correct when moving the total in SMU games 67.9% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (19-9)
The betting public is correct when moving the total in NEVADA games 59.8% of the time since 1992. (49-33)
The betting public is correct when moving the total in NEVADA games 63.6% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (21-12)

 
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Posted: #41
72 is a tad much, so under is a more logical play.
 
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Posted: #42

Nevada held Boise at home to 44...

SMU highest score in a game this season is 35 against Navy, UAB, and UTEP... 

Nevada leading Rushers not playing...

UNDER is the safest play.

 
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Posted: #43
Nevada`s passing game is almost non existent,they are a running team through and through,which gives them more potency of the passing game through play action fakes leaving the opposing D in their wake.It also turns the clock..SMU can do little to stop the run but have a solid passing game and enough of a running game to keep the Pack D second guessing..With so much running initial thoughts were to go Under however I have no faith in either D to hold the total down so will opt for the points on offer and take
SMU+12.5

 
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Posted: #44

Nevada without their two 1000 yard backs. That means a big no play for me.  

GLTA

 
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Posted: #45

Double Digit dogs in the Hawaii Bowl is usually money in the bank.  I'll take the generous points.....and just like the 5 previous games OVER.

Nevada - 42                          SMU - 38

Mustangs +12.5                over 72

Merry Christmas to all our fantastic Hawaiian Island cappers.  Hope your former coach makes me some "Night before Christmas" on this chilly Christmas Eve night on the mainland.

 
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Posted: #46

SMU covers this game and maybe wins it outright.  Tonight June Jones puts his stamp on SMU for good.  This will be the second bowl shocker of the season tonight.  Small ML play on SMU.

SMU +13

 
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Posted: #47

Gotta love SMU team total over 29.5, Nevada has a terrible defence and who knows how Nevada's offence will function with the 2 main RBs missing the game on a team that runs the ball every play.

 
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Posted: #48

SMU+20.5/U80 Large

 
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Posted: #49
Short and sweet,

SMU averages 26.9 pts per game
Nevada averages 46.7pts per game
Total of 73.6
Now the over and under keeps floating around 71 to 74h.

How many points lost for nevada since the two star backs are out!  My guess, around 10 to 14 rushing points.
What does that mean.  73.6 Is a bit to high.  Sounds Good right.
Not so fast, vegas all ready knows this!
When the line came out early last week i locked Nevada min 15.
Now, im parlaying smu and under 72h for 200parlay. 

GL all, Biddaddy what side you on?
 
 
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Posted: #50
The question is how much of Nevada's success running the ball is due to their O-line and how much credit goes to the backs?   Many teams have running systems where you can plug another back in there and be just as effective.   Not saying this is so here, in fact I am asking the question.

I am leaning SMU here, with the RB injuries, and to stay on the dog side -- dogs have been barking loud in these early bowl games.


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