Am going with Central Florida tonight minus the points. They have the better defense and Marshall is down big time. Look for a running game and under the total of 45h.
And remember there is no MAN. The bookies dont care which side wins or loses, all they care about is the juice.
MY UNCLE IS A RETIRED BOOKIE AND THEY 100% CARE AND DO MOVE LINES TO MANIPULATE PEOPLE IN A DIRECTION THE JUICE PUTS THE ODDS IN THIER FAVOR THEY WOULD MUCH RATHER 75% BE ON ONE SIDE AND IT COME IN THAN 50/50 .. IN THE IMORTAL WORDS OF GORDON GECCO "GREED IS GOOD" AND VEGAS AND CRIME FAMILYS WERE BUILT ON IT..
0
Quote Originally Posted by ColonelReb:
Am going with Central Florida tonight minus the points. They have the better defense and Marshall is down big time. Look for a running game and under the total of 45h.
And remember there is no MAN. The bookies dont care which side wins or loses, all they care about is the juice.
MY UNCLE IS A RETIRED BOOKIE AND THEY 100% CARE AND DO MOVE LINES TO MANIPULATE PEOPLE IN A DIRECTION THE JUICE PUTS THE ODDS IN THIER FAVOR THEY WOULD MUCH RATHER 75% BE ON ONE SIDE AND IT COME IN THAN 50/50 .. IN THE IMORTAL WORDS OF GORDON GECCO "GREED IS GOOD" AND VEGAS AND CRIME FAMILYS WERE BUILT ON IT..
Classic example and my best play of the night toronto at pitt in NHL pitt opens as high as -190 closes at -155 with 83% on PITT why did they make it easier and lower the juice on PITT?? to keep the action at 80+%.... they are not right every time but they are a majority!!
0
Classic example and my best play of the night toronto at pitt in NHL pitt opens as high as -190 closes at -155 with 83% on PITT why did they make it easier and lower the juice on PITT?? to keep the action at 80+%.... they are not right every time but they are a majority!!
I just pounded Marshall. This thing stinks from a mile away!! Vegas is teasing us to play UCF..
I am new here. My dad is a guiney and he is a barber. He's been doing this stuff forever. Every once in a while he throws me a bone and I will post it on my blog at:
sonofabarber.tumblr.com
rolling the same direction I like your swagger bro GLTY!!
0
Quote Originally Posted by sonofabarber:
I just pounded Marshall. This thing stinks from a mile away!! Vegas is teasing us to play UCF..
I am new here. My dad is a guiney and he is a barber. He's been doing this stuff forever. Every once in a while he throws me a bone and I will post it on my blog at:
sonofabarber.tumblr.com
rolling the same direction I like your swagger bro GLTY!!
i know marshall isnt very good but they play a lot better at home than they do on the road. primetime espn game, bookies know a lot of people watched ucf roll last week and the fact the line moved to 7 makes me lean more than a little to marshall +7.
just my $0.02
0
i know marshall isnt very good but they play a lot better at home than they do on the road. primetime espn game, bookies know a lot of people watched ucf roll last week and the fact the line moved to 7 makes me lean more than a little to marshall +7.
Quick question; do these websites show total dollars on each side (at least as a percentage) or just bets placed (or bets placed as a percentage)?
If 50 people bet and 25 are on UCF and 25 on Marshall, that doesn't mean much unless we know how much has been spent. I am still amazed that Vegas would share that kind of information, it seems to be there biggest advantage - knowing how and how much people bet. We all see the same data on the teams and can us it to make picks based on match ups (strong run team versus weak rush D, situational (look ahead, let down game), and trends (weekday night home dogs, etc.). But the one thing I do not know, is how many dollars have been bet on UCF and how many on Marshall, how many dollars have been bet on home dogs on weekday nights over the years, etc.
I do appreciate the concept of reverse line movements, and the reality of them, but I do tread carefully. From what I have read, but have not verified, following reserve line movements works 55-57% of the time, so unless you do it every time, or in conjunction with other analysis, hard to follow it on a one off basis.
Response to my initial question is sincerely appreciated.
peace
i use three different sites.. it doesn't show the amount of money on a side, just the amount of bets.. however, if all three sites are around the same, then I use my public and line movement angles..
0
Quote Originally Posted by ronaldjeremy:
Oahuboy,
Quick question; do these websites show total dollars on each side (at least as a percentage) or just bets placed (or bets placed as a percentage)?
If 50 people bet and 25 are on UCF and 25 on Marshall, that doesn't mean much unless we know how much has been spent. I am still amazed that Vegas would share that kind of information, it seems to be there biggest advantage - knowing how and how much people bet. We all see the same data on the teams and can us it to make picks based on match ups (strong run team versus weak rush D, situational (look ahead, let down game), and trends (weekday night home dogs, etc.). But the one thing I do not know, is how many dollars have been bet on UCF and how many on Marshall, how many dollars have been bet on home dogs on weekday nights over the years, etc.
I do appreciate the concept of reverse line movements, and the reality of them, but I do tread carefully. From what I have read, but have not verified, following reserve line movements works 55-57% of the time, so unless you do it every time, or in conjunction with other analysis, hard to follow it on a one off basis.
Response to my initial question is sincerely appreciated.
peace
i use three different sites.. it doesn't show the amount of money on a side, just the amount of bets.. however, if all three sites are around the same, then I use my public and line movement angles..
"Reverse line movement takes place when a large majority of bets are on one team, yet the line moves in the opposite direction. For example, in the two cases above, at least 75 percent of all bets were placed on the Chargers and Wisconsin respectively. Yet, the Chargers line dropped from an opener of -7 to a closing line of -5½, while Wisconsin fell from -6½ to -5. You all now know what transpired on the field on each occasion.
So what causes reverse line movement when the aim of most bookmakers is to get as close to balanced action on both sides as possible? The answer to this is quite simple: the sharp bettors. You see, reverse movement takes when more money is bet by the small percentage of bettors that are on the unpopular side (the sharps) than is bet by the huge majority of players betting the popular side (the squares). Thus, following reverse line movements is the same thing a following the smart money.
Now do the sharps win every single time? Absolutely not! However, they are right more often than they are wrong, so being on the same side as the sharps is a prudent strategy over the long run."
Thanks oahuboy for the insight. As posted earlier, I played UCF (small) and also teased them because of this. The Teaser (+1/Under 50) is just insurance; if they decide to play close. I am really expecting UCF to WIN by 2 scores or more! [10-13pts at the least] Again, these are just my opinions and hope everyone goes with their "gut" feelings. I don't RUSH my picks, but I do go with my "gut" feelings... after reviewing stats, and reading a lot of forums, I go with my gut (which isn't always right) but I've learned to make my own decisions and lived with them.... the only time I get persuaded to follow the picks on these boards, are when big playsare involved. BOLTA
it's always better to be on the side of the sharps..
0
Quote Originally Posted by gambito_12:
TAKEN OFF THE NET:
"Reverse line movement takes place when a large majority of bets are on one team, yet the line moves in the opposite direction. For example, in the two cases above, at least 75 percent of all bets were placed on the Chargers and Wisconsin respectively. Yet, the Chargers line dropped from an opener of -7 to a closing line of -5½, while Wisconsin fell from -6½ to -5. You all now know what transpired on the field on each occasion.
So what causes reverse line movement when the aim of most bookmakers is to get as close to balanced action on both sides as possible? The answer to this is quite simple: the sharp bettors. You see, reverse movement takes when more money is bet by the small percentage of bettors that are on the unpopular side (the sharps) than is bet by the huge majority of players betting the popular side (the squares). Thus, following reverse line movements is the same thing a following the smart money.
Now do the sharps win every single time? Absolutely not! However, they are right more often than they are wrong, so being on the same side as the sharps is a prudent strategy over the long run."
Thanks oahuboy for the insight. As posted earlier, I played UCF (small) and also teased them because of this. The Teaser (+1/Under 50) is just insurance; if they decide to play close. I am really expecting UCF to WIN by 2 scores or more! [10-13pts at the least] Again, these are just my opinions and hope everyone goes with their "gut" feelings. I don't RUSH my picks, but I do go with my "gut" feelings... after reviewing stats, and reading a lot of forums, I go with my gut (which isn't always right) but I've learned to make my own decisions and lived with them.... the only time I get persuaded to follow the picks on these boards, are when big playsare involved. BOLTA
it's always better to be on the side of the sharps..
no ucf is going to pound them marshall needs a miracle i changed my mind and took the under as well not feeling to good about that right now be nice to see ucf put up 3 here tick tick tick
0
no ucf is going to pound them marshall needs a miracle i changed my mind and took the under as well not feeling to good about that right now be nice to see ucf put up 3 here tick tick tick
I just pounded Marshall. This thing stinks from a mile away!! Vegas is teasing us to play UCF..
I am new here. My dad is a guiney and he is a barber. He's been doing this stuff forever. Every once in a while he throws me a bone and I will post it on my blog at:
sonofabarber.tumblr.com
lol be sure to look into that
0
Quote Originally Posted by sonofabarber:
I just pounded Marshall. This thing stinks from a mile away!! Vegas is teasing us to play UCF..
I am new here. My dad is a guiney and he is a barber. He's been doing this stuff forever. Every once in a while he throws me a bone and I will post it on my blog at:
woops.. i mean under.... i got the over in a teaser to over 39.. due to the weather tonight, figured might be the smart bet.. but im thinkin over 45 would be just as good now!
0
woops.. i mean under.... i got the over in a teaser to over 39.. due to the weather tonight, figured might be the smart bet.. but im thinkin over 45 would be just as good now!
Classic example and my best play of the night toronto at pitt in NHL pitt opens as high as -190 closes at -155 with 83% on PITT why did they make it easier and lower the juice on PITT?? to keep the action at 80+%.... they are not right every time but they are a majority!!
WINNER WINNER TORONTO PLAY OF THE NIGHT +$125 THE POWER OF THE REVERSE LINE MOVE!!
0
Quote Originally Posted by bankjob:
Classic example and my best play of the night toronto at pitt in NHL pitt opens as high as -190 closes at -155 with 83% on PITT why did they make it easier and lower the juice on PITT?? to keep the action at 80+%.... they are not right every time but they are a majority!!
WINNER WINNER TORONTO PLAY OF THE NIGHT +$125 THE POWER OF THE REVERSE LINE MOVE!!
If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on
this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide
any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in
your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner
of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.
Will look for a 2H or in-game play.
35.4 PPG
Hot Forum Topics
