Central Florida at Marshall (10/13/2010)

"Reverse line movement takes place when a large majority of bets are on one team, yet the line moves in the opposite direction. For example, in the two cases above, at least 75 percent of all bets were placed on the Chargers and Wisconsin respectively. Yet, the Chargers line dropped from an opener of -7 to a closing line of -5½, while Wisconsin fell from -6½ to -5. You all now know what transpired on the field on each occasion.

So what causes reverse line movement when the aim of most bookmakers is to get as close to balanced action on both sides as possible? The answer to this is quite simple: the sharp bettors. You see, reverse movement takes when more money is bet by the small percentage of bettors that are on the unpopular side (the sharps) than is bet by the huge majority of players betting the popular side (the squares). Thus, following reverse line movements is the same thing a following the smart money.

Now do the sharps win every single time? Absolutely not! However, they are right more often than they are wrong, so being on the same side as the sharps is a prudent strategy over the long run."

Thanks oahuboy for the insight. As posted earlier, I played UCF (small) and also teased them because of this. The Teaser (+1/Under 50) is just insurance; if they decide to play close. I am really expecting UCF to WIN by 2 scores or more! [10-13pts at the least] Again, these are just my opinions and hope everyone goes with their "gut" feelings. I don't RUSH my picks, but I do go with my "gut" feelings... after reviewing stats, and reading a lot of forums, I go with my gut (which isn't always right) but I've learned to make my own decisions and lived with them.... the only time I get persuaded to follow the picks on these boards, are when big playsare involved. BOLTA