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Alabama at Mississippi (10/10/2009)

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Posted: #26
Alabama if the line goes to 7.5
Ole Miss if the line stays at 6.5
Over if the line settles at 7
 
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Posted: #27

Thanks Shooter.  I get the history bit, but Bama before last year was a different animal.  I agree with those who feel this Tide team looks to be the most complete football team in all of CFB.  Giving a TD to an Old Miss team that got blasted by SC's defense, and struggled for a half against Memphis doesn't seem like much.  Unlike many SEC teams, Old Miss doesn't have a huge home field advantage, their stadium is undersized and the fans genteel.  I will continue to study, and could be misreading this one, but I would take Bama -10 and feel pretty confident.  Looks something like        

Alabama   31      Old Miss  16.

 

Quote Originally Posted by StraightShooter:

Since you asked:

Since Houston Nutt has taken over at Ole Miss they have not lost a game by more than a TD.

The last time Alabama beat Ole Miss by more than 4 points was during Bush’s first term.

The last time bama covered against Ole Miss in Oxford was during the Clinton Administration.

 

 
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Posted: #28

Bama was a different animal before last year, true.  However, last year Alabama only beat Ole Miss by 4 points in Tuscaloosa and two minutes to go in the game the Rebels had the ball in Alabama territory but were held on downs.

 
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Posted: #29
So much for the line going over 7
 
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Posted: #30
The Nutt is known for blowing it with a ranked team expected of big things.  They did it in SC and they stayed ranked.  They'll do it again this week.  Alabama hasn't blown people away until the 2nd half of games.  They seem to be in better shape.  Ole Miss will be prepared, so this game may come down to the wire.  However, i can see Ole Miss chokin with the game on the line or showing up with too little too late.  Bama's running game won't be shut down, so Bama just needs to avoid mistakes.  Play action will be there for a big strike.  Ole Miss doesn't have as potent a threat.  Bama wins it late with a 4th qtr margin of 14-0.   Alabama  31   Mississippi  17
 
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Posted: #31
This line keeps going down, yet money keeps going on Bama.  Love the rebels here.  Olemiss wins straight up hopefully, but they atelast cover 5
 
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Posted: #32
Recent history shows that these two play extremely close games....Nutt's Reb's haven't loss by more than a TD yet...Game is at OleMiss & getting 5 points??  I'm on the Rebels!
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Posted: #33
I like the Rebels as well.  Public is on Bama yet line moves the other way?  Tall dollars must have come in on Miss from some sharps in Vegas.
 
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Posted: #34
Alabama ML
 
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Posted: #35
Quote Originally Posted by StraightShooter:

2008 Season

 

Ole Miss @ #4 Florida: Ole Miss +24.5

Result = Ole Miss 31 Florida 30

 

Ole Miss @ #2 Alabama: Ole Miss +12.5

Result = Alabama 24 Ole Miss 20

 

Ole Miss @ #18 LSU: Ole Miss +4.5

Result= Ole Miss 31 LSU 13

 

Ole Miss vs. #7 Texas Tech: Ole Miss +3.5

Result = Ole Miss 47 Texas Tech 34

 



Don't forget Houston Nutt's big-game track record at Arkansas either.

WIN Arkansas @ #1 LSU - 50-48

WIN Arkansas @ #2 Auburn - 27-10

etc.

Does anyone see a trend here??? Ole Miss and Arkansas were not ranked in any of these games!!!! As an Arkansas Alum, I have come up with a formula for Houston Nutt. When his teams are ranked high and have national expectations he simply fails. In this situation he call the plays extremely conservative (plays not to lose) runs alot of screens, draws, swing patterns and runs the ball on the 3rd down.
Examples:
Auburn 10 @ #7 Arkansas 3 L    2003
#6 Ole Miss 10 @ South Carolina 16 L    2009
#16 Arkansas 38 @ Alabama 41 L     2007

The other side of the formula with Houston Nutt is an amazing motivator. Houston is maybe one of the best motivating coaches in the nation. When his teams back are against the wall his teams are capable of beating any team. His play calling is loose, consists of play action deep throws and he'll run either a double pass or a trick play (special teams) to swing momentum.
Examples:
Arkansas 38 @ #6 Texas 28 W     2003
Arkansas 27 @ #2 Auburn 10 W    2006
#2 Tennessee 24 @ Arkansas 28 W   1999

History says Middle Ground Games (both ranked opp) are close.
Examples:
#6 Wisconsin 17 vs. #12 Arkansas 14 L    2006
#9 LSU 31 @ #5 Arkansas 26 L    2006

Saturdays Game is a Middle Ground Game

 
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Posted: #36
This is the second SEC dog I am taking this week (LSU other one).  I think Bama is strenusously tested here (even though Ole Miss stunk it up awhile back against SC during the week).  I see a tight, hard fought game down to the wire here and I will take the points
 
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Posted: #37
I think Alabama is  the best team in the country but I will take the points in what should be a close game. 
 
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Posted: #38
Excellent points made for both teams on this thread.This is a difficult play. Miss average margin of victory is 22.5. Alabam's margin of victory is 25.6 with a slightly more difficult schedule. However 4 of the 5 games played for Bama have been n their home field. Ole Miss has only played 1 home game this year the other 3 games they have played have been on the road.
 
I'm going with a 6 point tease on this one.....
Ole miss +10 & Wisc +22  
 
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Posted: #39
sure Sneed has underachieved so far but good player get up for a big game especially at home. we know alabama looks invincible but this sat. thel'll win by 3...
 
 
Ole Miss + 4.5
 
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Posted: #40
As much as I dislike Saban I feel that Bama comes out strong in this one. I think Saban would want to get a quick start on the road and have the home team play catch up....
 
 
Bama at the half -3
 
Aloha and good luck to all
 
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Posted: #41
BAMA is the best team in the country, there I said it. They will prove that Ole Miss does not even belong in the top 25 after really high expectations for this year. GLTA
 
BAMA-4.5 (4 units)
 
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Posted: #42
The line movement has helped me reaffirm my position on this game.
MISS +4.5 
GLTA 
 
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Posted: #43
Quote Originally Posted by bigdaddyhpd:

As much as I dislike Saban I feel that Bama comes out strong in this one. I think Saban would want to get a quick start on the road and have the home team play catch up....
 
 
Bama at the half -3
 
Aloha and good luck to all

GL BigD with that!  I am just going to sit and watch this one it is to tough of a play for me!

 

GL ALL!!

 
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Posted: #44
Bama easy -4
BOL & Cheers!!!
 
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Posted: #45
Quote Originally Posted by Humblepie:

Jevan Snead is OVERATED. He never seems to play with the confidence that the hype has heaped upon him. I really believe Bama will cover this easily. This line will rise to 9....


Like I said, J. Snead does not play with confidence. Bama to the bank!!
 
 
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Posted: #46
Bama at the half
 
Thank you Bama
 
Sorry Ole Miss backers
 
Congrats to all the winners
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