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    All Forums | College Football

    Why FSU will be, by far, my biggest bet of the Bowl season

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    PlayinPlot
    kingpincarbs
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    PlayinPlot
    PlayinPlot
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    Posted: Dec. 30, 2013 - 1:33 AM ET #1

    Not here to gloat or bicker, but to express, logically, why I think FSU is a great bet to cover the spread in the National Championship.

    First, I know a lot about this Seminoles team. Don't believe me check out my post(s) breaking down the first game of the season at Pitt
    https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=33&sub=101673458

    Or my post looking for Winston Heisman odds preseason 
    https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=33&sub=101673457

    Don't post as often as I used to as I think the forum has gotten a lot more childish than it used to be, but figured for such a big game I could stimulate some thoughtful insight both ways. Now, if you've checked out either of my previous threads I posted you can tell I am an FSU fan. So, some may call me a homer, but I actually only bet on FSU twice this season (that Pitt game and the Clemson game). Thought most of the other lines were inflated for previous play (which they were but it didn't stop FSU as they went 12-1 ATS this year).

    As for the National championship game: I may get lengthy so I am going to start this thread and provide my write-up and reasonings in a follow up comment. Figured a week before kickoff was sufficient time to get plenty of info out there.

    And please, no dumb, childish comments in here. Just trying to provide useless info along w my opinion. Use it as you may to either tail or fade as I honestly don't care what you do. 

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    To remove first post, remove entire topic.
    Not here to gloat or bicker, but to express, logically, why I think FSU is a great bet to cover the spread in the National Championship.

    First, I know a lot about this Seminoles team. Don't believe me check out my post(s) breaking down the first game of the season at Pitt
    https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=33&sub=101673458

    Or my post looking for Winston Heisman odds preseason 
    https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=33&sub=101673457

    Don't post as often as I used to as I think the forum has gotten a lot more childish than it used to be, but figured for such a big game I could stimulate some thoughtful insight both ways. Now, if you've checked out either of my previous threads I posted you can tell I am an FSU fan. So, some may call me a homer, but I actually only bet on FSU twice this season (that Pitt game and the Clemson game). Thought most of the other lines were inflated for previous play (which they were but it didn't stop FSU as they went 12-1 ATS this year).

    As for the National championship game: I may get lengthy so I am going to start this thread and provide my write-up and reasonings in a follow up comment. Figured a week before kickoff was sufficient time to get plenty of info out there.

    And please, no dumb, childish comments in here. Just trying to provide useless info along w my opinion. Use it as you may to either tail or fade as I honestly don't care what you do. 

     
    kingpincarbs
    kingpincarbs
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    Posted: Dec. 30, 2013 - 1:52 AM ET #2

    they played duke in their championship game. Very tough strength of schedule they had.
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    they played duke in their championship game. Very tough strength of schedule they had.
     
    PlayinPlot
    PlayinPlot
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    Posted: Dec. 30, 2013 - 1:54 AM ET #3

    2013 National Championship game #1FSU -8.5 takes on #2Auburn in Pasadena.

    I'll get right to it. Here are the reasons I LOVE FSU ATS in this game.
    1) First and foremost, FSU has been able to stay major injury free all season. Only two main players have been hurt for the season 1) Backup QB Jacob Coker (luckily hasn't been needed for anything but mop up duty) and starting safety Tyler Hunter who went down early w a neck injury. Luckily, FSU was stacked at CB at the time, and they moved true freshman Jalen Ramsey into the starting safety spot where we has flourished. Going into a National Championship game missing only one of your starters from the beginning of the season is huge.
    2) The preparation time: Ppl try to downplay this aspect of the contest, but I truly believe this is a HUGE advantage to FSU. It is no secret Auburn doesn't have a huge play book; they love to run different variations of their heavy run option. Having a month to prepare for this attack is such a big advantage IMO. FSU coaches have 4x as long to instill into their defensive players minds how important staying in their gaps and covering their man is regardless of what they see. ESPN had a great breakdown on how corners were biting on the play action inside handoff even though a linebacker had that assignment leading to Marshall tucking and running it around the corner. The point of that being, FSU will be more disciplined on stopping that run which is a huge component of limiting that offense. The other main component is dominating your 1 on 1 assignment. You gotta make a play against this team 1x1 and this defense has all the talent in the world to do that lead by the three monsters Joyner, T Smith, and Jernigan. Of course Auburn has a month to prepare as we'll and I am sure they adjust some things, but I think this offense is going to have big problems running the ball. Pruitt and his defense will dare Marshall to beat them in the air on 1x1 match ups and good luck against the best defensive backfield in the country (yes, the best, not a typo).
    3) How is this HORRIBLE Auburn D going to stop this dynamic FSU offense? I mean, Auburn is BAAADDDD on D, and FSU, has arguably the best offense in the country. Hard to argue when you have 3 OL, 3 WRs, 3 RBs, 1TE and 1QB who will all be playing on Sundays (no, that is not a typo either). Expect to see a lot heavier dosage from the next best college football running back, Karlos Williams, in this title game. He is definitely the best back on this team but has been 3rd string since Week 2 when he moved to offense from D due to Jimbo's allegiance to Wilder and Freeman, but he started getting more snaps against Duke as you can see Jimbo was easing him in for more carries. Watch some of his tape, dude is the real deal. I just don't see how Auburn's dramatically weaker and less talented defense will get many stops against this powerhouse offense. 
    Gunna submit this and start next post w reason 4 
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    2013 National Championship game #1FSU -8.5 takes on #2Auburn in Pasadena.

    I'll get right to it. Here are the reasons I LOVE FSU ATS in this game.
    1) First and foremost, FSU has been able to stay major injury free all season. Only two main players have been hurt for the season 1) Backup QB Jacob Coker (luckily hasn't been needed for anything but mop up duty) and starting safety Tyler Hunter who went down early w a neck injury. Luckily, FSU was stacked at CB at the time, and they moved true freshman Jalen Ramsey into the starting safety spot where we has flourished. Going into a National Championship game missing only one of your starters from the beginning of the season is huge.
    2) The preparation time: Ppl try to downplay this aspect of the contest, but I truly believe this is a HUGE advantage to FSU. It is no secret Auburn doesn't have a huge play book; they love to run different variations of their heavy run option. Having a month to prepare for this attack is such a big advantage IMO. FSU coaches have 4x as long to instill into their defensive players minds how important staying in their gaps and covering their man is regardless of what they see. ESPN had a great breakdown on how corners were biting on the play action inside handoff even though a linebacker had that assignment leading to Marshall tucking and running it around the corner. The point of that being, FSU will be more disciplined on stopping that run which is a huge component of limiting that offense. The other main component is dominating your 1 on 1 assignment. You gotta make a play against this team 1x1 and this defense has all the talent in the world to do that lead by the three monsters Joyner, T Smith, and Jernigan. Of course Auburn has a month to prepare as we'll and I am sure they adjust some things, but I think this offense is going to have big problems running the ball. Pruitt and his defense will dare Marshall to beat them in the air on 1x1 match ups and good luck against the best defensive backfield in the country (yes, the best, not a typo).
    3) How is this HORRIBLE Auburn D going to stop this dynamic FSU offense? I mean, Auburn is BAAADDDD on D, and FSU, has arguably the best offense in the country. Hard to argue when you have 3 OL, 3 WRs, 3 RBs, 1TE and 1QB who will all be playing on Sundays (no, that is not a typo either). Expect to see a lot heavier dosage from the next best college football running back, Karlos Williams, in this title game. He is definitely the best back on this team but has been 3rd string since Week 2 when he moved to offense from D due to Jimbo's allegiance to Wilder and Freeman, but he started getting more snaps against Duke as you can see Jimbo was easing him in for more carries. Watch some of his tape, dude is the real deal. I just don't see how Auburn's dramatically weaker and less talented defense will get many stops against this powerhouse offense. 
    Gunna submit this and start next post w reason 4 
     
    PlayinPlot
    PlayinPlot
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    Posted: Dec. 30, 2013 - 2:10 AM ET #4

    4) this one is my favorite. Perception. As I already see someone posted "oh, real hard schedule they played." So? What's your point? To show why that means nothing is to look at their ATS this season. Regardless of who they play there will be a monster line. FSU WENT 12-1 ATS THIS YEAR. Vegas couldn't make lines high enough bc they were smoking everyone as good or as bad as they were. Never a let down bc they are that talented. So, a lot of public perception is this team hasn't played anyone. OMG THE SEC HAS WON 7 STRAIGHT CHAMPIONSHIPS AND THEY ARE EIGHT POINT UNDERDOGS TO AN ACC TEAM THAT HASNT PLAYED ANYONE?!?!? HOW DUMB CAN VEGAS BE?!?! Think again. They know exactly what they are doing bc FSU wins this one by DD and comfortably. Same perception why earlier in the season a #5 FSU went into #3 Clemsons place DEATH VALLEY and were favored by 3 points. Joe Smoe lovvvveeeeddddd the higher ranked team getting points at home and they got shat on 51-14 (was 51-7 w 15 seconds left). But now Clemson is a nobody bc they lost to us and USC. Point is, I don't care at all who we have played. All I know is I've watched every FSU game and I know talent when I see it. This team has far more talent than this Auburn team.
    5) gets me to one my favorite points: Auburn is VASTLY overrated right now. People only remember the pretty recent events like beating Missouri (ugly shoot out) and Alabama in a nice last second win at home, but what about a week earlier needing a 70 yard miracle Hail Mary to beat an abysmal and injury depleted Georgia team AT HOME? I hear the point that they improved over the season, but there is only one way a team improves from 0-10 in the SEC to winning the SEC...
    6) No one will like this, but that reason is that the SEC this year was overrated as  a whole. That's the reason so many teams were competitive. Ppl don't like to hear that the power conference isn't as good as they normally are but they were this year. Alabama wasn't the same dominant team. Texas A&M didn't field a defense. LSU wasn't the same. So teams like Mizzou and Auburn pounced and looked better than they were really are. No doubt in my mind this was a completely overrated SEC this year, and I am licking my chops to watch the Seminoles destroy this squad and put a break on use SEC bias.

    Those are all my main points and after 30 minutes of typing I'm gunna call it quits for tonight. That's my honest reasoning as to why I love FSU in this spot. Vegas isn't dumb. They know they'll get tons of SEC lover money and they don't mind. I don't either. I'm just hoping i see it trickle down to 7 somewhere. Then it's pound time. 

    Hopefully this thread doesn't blow up w useless bicker but I will do my bed to ignore it and only entertain thoughtful conversation. Hope someone out there got use from this write up. Have a good one.

    Cheers
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    4) this one is my favorite. Perception. As I already see someone posted "oh, real hard schedule they played." So? What's your point? To show why that means nothing is to look at their ATS this season. Regardless of who they play there will be a monster line. FSU WENT 12-1 ATS THIS YEAR. Vegas couldn't make lines high enough bc they were smoking everyone as good or as bad as they were. Never a let down bc they are that talented. So, a lot of public perception is this team hasn't played anyone. OMG THE SEC HAS WON 7 STRAIGHT CHAMPIONSHIPS AND THEY ARE EIGHT POINT UNDERDOGS TO AN ACC TEAM THAT HASNT PLAYED ANYONE?!?!? HOW DUMB CAN VEGAS BE?!?! Think again. They know exactly what they are doing bc FSU wins this one by DD and comfortably. Same perception why earlier in the season a #5 FSU went into #3 Clemsons place DEATH VALLEY and were favored by 3 points. Joe Smoe lovvvveeeeddddd the higher ranked team getting points at home and they got shat on 51-14 (was 51-7 w 15 seconds left). But now Clemson is a nobody bc they lost to us and USC. Point is, I don't care at all who we have played. All I know is I've watched every FSU game and I know talent when I see it. This team has far more talent than this Auburn team.
    5) gets me to one my favorite points: Auburn is VASTLY overrated right now. People only remember the pretty recent events like beating Missouri (ugly shoot out) and Alabama in a nice last second win at home, but what about a week earlier needing a 70 yard miracle Hail Mary to beat an abysmal and injury depleted Georgia team AT HOME? I hear the point that they improved over the season, but there is only one way a team improves from 0-10 in the SEC to winning the SEC...
    6) No one will like this, but that reason is that the SEC this year was overrated as  a whole. That's the reason so many teams were competitive. Ppl don't like to hear that the power conference isn't as good as they normally are but they were this year. Alabama wasn't the same dominant team. Texas A&M didn't field a defense. LSU wasn't the same. So teams like Mizzou and Auburn pounced and looked better than they were really are. No doubt in my mind this was a completely overrated SEC this year, and I am licking my chops to watch the Seminoles destroy this squad and put a break on use SEC bias.

    Those are all my main points and after 30 minutes of typing I'm gunna call it quits for tonight. That's my honest reasoning as to why I love FSU in this spot. Vegas isn't dumb. They know they'll get tons of SEC lover money and they don't mind. I don't either. I'm just hoping i see it trickle down to 7 somewhere. Then it's pound time. 

    Hopefully this thread doesn't blow up w useless bicker but I will do my bed to ignore it and only entertain thoughtful conversation. Hope someone out there got use from this write up. Have a good one.

    Cheers
     
    PrenticeGT
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    Posted: Dec. 30, 2013 - 2:20 AM ET #5

    If the SEC was so good they wouldn't be an 8.5 point underdog to an ACC team in the title game.  This is a blowout all the way.  I like your analysis.

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    If the SEC was so good they wouldn't be an 8.5 point underdog to an ACC team in the title game.  This is a blowout all the way.  I like your analysis.

     
    PrenticeGT
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    Posted: Dec. 30, 2013 - 2:25 AM ET #6

    I'd also like to add that I can't wait til the mighty SEC champion gets humiliated on the national scene.
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    I'd also like to add that I can't wait til the mighty SEC champion gets humiliated on the national scene.
     
    bobelle34
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    Posted: Dec. 30, 2013 - 2:33 AM ET #7

    Quote Originally Posted by PlayinPlot:

    2013 National Championship game #1FSU -8.5 takes on #2Auburn in Pasadena.

    I'll get right to it. Here are the reasons I LOVE FSU ATS in this game.
    1) First and foremost, FSU has been able to stay major injury free all season. Only two main players have been hurt for the season 1) Backup QB Jacob Coker (luckily hasn't been needed for anything but mop up duty) and starting safety Tyler Hunter who went down early w a neck injury. Luckily, FSU was stacked at CB at the time, and they moved true freshman Jalen Ramsey into the starting safety spot where we has flourished. Going into a National Championship game missing only one of your starters from the beginning of the season is huge.
    2) The preparation time: Ppl try to downplay this aspect of the contest, but I truly believe this is a HUGE advantage to FSU. It is no secret Auburn doesn't have a huge play book; they love to run different variations of their heavy run option. Having a month to prepare for this attack is such a big advantage IMO. FSU coaches have 4x as long to instill into their defensive players minds how important staying in their gaps and covering their man is regardless of what they see. ESPN had a great breakdown on how corners were biting on the play action inside handoff even though a linebacker had that assignment leading to Marshall tucking and running it around the corner. The point of that being, FSU will be more disciplined on stopping that run which is a huge component of limiting that offense. The other main component is dominating your 1 on 1 assignment. You gotta make a play against this team 1x1 and this defense has all the talent in the world to do that lead by the three monsters Joyner, T Smith, and Jernigan. Of course Auburn has a month to prepare as we'll and I am sure they adjust some things, but I think this offense is going to have big problems running the ball. Pruitt and his defense will dare Marshall to beat them in the air on 1x1 match ups and good luck against the best defensive backfield in the country (yes, the best, not a typo).
    3) How is this HORRIBLE Auburn D going to stop this dynamic FSU offense? I mean, Auburn is BAAADDDD on D, and FSU, has arguably the best offense in the country. Hard to argue when you have 3 OL, 3 WRs, 3 RBs, 1TE and 1QB who will all be playing on Sundays (no, that is not a typo either). Expect to see a lot heavier dosage from the next best college football running back, Karlos Williams, in this title game. He is definitely the best back on this team but has been 3rd string since Week 2 when he moved to offense from D due to Jimbo's allegiance to Wilder and Freeman, but he started getting more snaps against Duke as you can see Jimbo was easing him in for more carries. Watch some of his tape, dude is the real deal. I just don't see how Auburn's dramatically weaker and less talented defense will get many stops against this powerhouse offense. 
    Gunna submit this and start next post w reason 4 

    1)  Big deal, Auburn doesn't have any major injuries either.

    2) Prep time means nothing for FSU.  If anything it favors Auburn.  FSU's heads will be spinning looking at tape for over a month.  Every time they think they have it figured out, they will see a new wrinkle they haven't seen before.  Malzahn, Lashlee know how to run this offense against any defense.  4-3, 3-4, 5-2, doesn't matter.  They already know what they are going to do against any defense FSU puts out there.  Auburn will make adjustments real time.  Auburn doesn't need the month to prepare for the FSU defense, they already know how to attack any defense on the field.

    3)  Yea, Auburn's defense sucks!  The Auburn 2010 defense sucked too and how did that turn out for Oregon?  Everyone said Auburn couldn't stop the Bama offense, they scored 28, Auburn won!  It's a lot easier for Auburn to prepare for the FSU offense than vice versa.

    Write anything you want that makes you feel better about FSU winning this game.  It won't matter!  A team like FSU that hasn't faced anyone comparable to Auburn's offense, is going to be demoralized when they keep getting knocked backwards by the best offensive line in the country.  FSU might score on every possession on this so called shitty Auburn defense, but when is FSU going to quit?  I think about the time Auburn ties it up 28-28 early in the 3rd quarter.  Auburn won't quit!  FSU will! When have they had to play 4 quarters of tight football all year? One game and it was against a bad Boston College team that ran all over FSU.

    All I see is FSU homers like yourself trying to justify beating this shitty Auburn team.  Why?  Because you're scared to death Auburn is going to punch you in the mouth and FSU won't know how to handle it.

    Auburn covers and most of all they WIN the game!!

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    Quote Originally Posted by PlayinPlot:

    2013 National Championship game #1FSU -8.5 takes on #2Auburn in Pasadena.

    I'll get right to it. Here are the reasons I LOVE FSU ATS in this game.
    1) First and foremost, FSU has been able to stay major injury free all season. Only two main players have been hurt for the season 1) Backup QB Jacob Coker (luckily hasn't been needed for anything but mop up duty) and starting safety Tyler Hunter who went down early w a neck injury. Luckily, FSU was stacked at CB at the time, and they moved true freshman Jalen Ramsey into the starting safety spot where we has flourished. Going into a National Championship game missing only one of your starters from the beginning of the season is huge.
    2) The preparation time: Ppl try to downplay this aspect of the contest, but I truly believe this is a HUGE advantage to FSU. It is no secret Auburn doesn't have a huge play book; they love to run different variations of their heavy run option. Having a month to prepare for this attack is such a big advantage IMO. FSU coaches have 4x as long to instill into their defensive players minds how important staying in their gaps and covering their man is regardless of what they see. ESPN had a great breakdown on how corners were biting on the play action inside handoff even though a linebacker had that assignment leading to Marshall tucking and running it around the corner. The point of that being, FSU will be more disciplined on stopping that run which is a huge component of limiting that offense. The other main component is dominating your 1 on 1 assignment. You gotta make a play against this team 1x1 and this defense has all the talent in the world to do that lead by the three monsters Joyner, T Smith, and Jernigan. Of course Auburn has a month to prepare as we'll and I am sure they adjust some things, but I think this offense is going to have big problems running the ball. Pruitt and his defense will dare Marshall to beat them in the air on 1x1 match ups and good luck against the best defensive backfield in the country (yes, the best, not a typo).
    3) How is this HORRIBLE Auburn D going to stop this dynamic FSU offense? I mean, Auburn is BAAADDDD on D, and FSU, has arguably the best offense in the country. Hard to argue when you have 3 OL, 3 WRs, 3 RBs, 1TE and 1QB who will all be playing on Sundays (no, that is not a typo either). Expect to see a lot heavier dosage from the next best college football running back, Karlos Williams, in this title game. He is definitely the best back on this team but has been 3rd string since Week 2 when he moved to offense from D due to Jimbo's allegiance to Wilder and Freeman, but he started getting more snaps against Duke as you can see Jimbo was easing him in for more carries. Watch some of his tape, dude is the real deal. I just don't see how Auburn's dramatically weaker and less talented defense will get many stops against this powerhouse offense. 
    Gunna submit this and start next post w reason 4 

    1)  Big deal, Auburn doesn't have any major injuries either.

    2) Prep time means nothing for FSU.  If anything it favors Auburn.  FSU's heads will be spinning looking at tape for over a month.  Every time they think they have it figured out, they will see a new wrinkle they haven't seen before.  Malzahn, Lashlee know how to run this offense against any defense.  4-3, 3-4, 5-2, doesn't matter.  They already know what they are going to do against any defense FSU puts out there.  Auburn will make adjustments real time.  Auburn doesn't need the month to prepare for the FSU defense, they already know how to attack any defense on the field.

    3)  Yea, Auburn's defense sucks!  The Auburn 2010 defense sucked too and how did that turn out for Oregon?  Everyone said Auburn couldn't stop the Bama offense, they scored 28, Auburn won!  It's a lot easier for Auburn to prepare for the FSU offense than vice versa.

    Write anything you want that makes you feel better about FSU winning this game.  It won't matter!  A team like FSU that hasn't faced anyone comparable to Auburn's offense, is going to be demoralized when they keep getting knocked backwards by the best offensive line in the country.  FSU might score on every possession on this so called shitty Auburn defense, but when is FSU going to quit?  I think about the time Auburn ties it up 28-28 early in the 3rd quarter.  Auburn won't quit!  FSU will! When have they had to play 4 quarters of tight football all year? One game and it was against a bad Boston College team that ran all over FSU.

    All I see is FSU homers like yourself trying to justify beating this shitty Auburn team.  Why?  Because you're scared to death Auburn is going to punch you in the mouth and FSU won't know how to handle it.

    Auburn covers and most of all they WIN the game!!

     
    PlayinPlot
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    Posted: Dec. 30, 2013 - 3:00 AM ET #8

    Didn't take very long to remind me why I don't use this forum much anymore lol.

    The preparation advantage is huge bc against Auburn you need to be in the spot you're supposed to be and make 1 on 1 plays. Communication is huge with that. If you don't think an extra 3 weeks is a huge advantage then I'm wasting my time talking to you. 

    I stopped reading reading at "Auburn won't quit! FSU will!" Extremely insightful stuff there Bob
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    Didn't take very long to remind me why I don't use this forum much anymore lol.

    The preparation advantage is huge bc against Auburn you need to be in the spot you're supposed to be and make 1 on 1 plays. Communication is huge with that. If you don't think an extra 3 weeks is a huge advantage then I'm wasting my time talking to you. 

    I stopped reading reading at "Auburn won't quit! FSU will!" Extremely insightful stuff there Bob
     
    PlayinPlot
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    Posted: Dec. 30, 2013 - 3:01 AM ET #9

    Appreciate it Prentice. I cannot wait to see it as well. 
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    Appreciate it Prentice. I cannot wait to see it as well. 
     
    bobelle34
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    Posted: Dec. 30, 2013 - 3:07 AM ET #10

    4)  Perception?  Wow, a month ago Auburn had zero chance of running the ball on the vaunted Alabama defense.  300+ yards later and a win, perception is that Bama just wasn't good.  The next week Auburn wasn't suppose to be able to run on the Mizz defense.  500+ yds later, the perception is that the Missouri defense sucks too.  The only real perception is that the ACC sucks and that is who FSU beat up on all year.

    5) Overrated?  The nation doesn't have a choice, Auburn beat all the teams they had to.  Auburn beat Missouri by 17, ugly or not they won and did it going away strong.  Tied with Bama, fluke play or not, found a way to win.  Dominated a UGA team for 3 quarters and won, fluke or not.  How did Auburn go from 0-8 SEC a year ago to SEC champs this year?  Solid talent and some luck.  Every team needs luck to win a National Championship.

    6)  Every year some yahoo like yourself says the SEC is overrated and what happens?  An out of conference team gets there behind kicked by an SEC team.  The only overrated team in this game is FSU!

    You are hoping for the line to come down to 7 and then you will pound it?  DD victory?  You are correct on one thing, Vegas know what they are doing and if they thought FSU would kill Auburn the line would be set in the DD.  You prove my point, you need the line to come down to make you feel better about taking FSU.  You know they can't cover 8.5 let alone win. 

     

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    4)  Perception?  Wow, a month ago Auburn had zero chance of running the ball on the vaunted Alabama defense.  300+ yards later and a win, perception is that Bama just wasn't good.  The next week Auburn wasn't suppose to be able to run on the Mizz defense.  500+ yds later, the perception is that the Missouri defense sucks too.  The only real perception is that the ACC sucks and that is who FSU beat up on all year.

    5) Overrated?  The nation doesn't have a choice, Auburn beat all the teams they had to.  Auburn beat Missouri by 17, ugly or not they won and did it going away strong.  Tied with Bama, fluke play or not, found a way to win.  Dominated a UGA team for 3 quarters and won, fluke or not.  How did Auburn go from 0-8 SEC a year ago to SEC champs this year?  Solid talent and some luck.  Every team needs luck to win a National Championship.

    6)  Every year some yahoo like yourself says the SEC is overrated and what happens?  An out of conference team gets there behind kicked by an SEC team.  The only overrated team in this game is FSU!

    You are hoping for the line to come down to 7 and then you will pound it?  DD victory?  You are correct on one thing, Vegas know what they are doing and if they thought FSU would kill Auburn the line would be set in the DD.  You prove my point, you need the line to come down to make you feel better about taking FSU.  You know they can't cover 8.5 let alone win. 

     

     
    bobelle34
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    Posted: Dec. 30, 2013 - 3:20 AM ET #11

    Quote Originally Posted by PlayinPlot:

    Didn't take very long to remind me why I don't use this forum much anymore lol.

    The preparation advantage is huge bc against Auburn you need to be in the spot you're supposed to be and make 1 on 1 plays. Communication is huge with that. If you don't think an extra 3 weeks is a huge advantage then I'm wasting my time talking to you. 

    I stopped reading reading at "Auburn won't quit! FSU will!" Extremely insightful stuff there Bob

    How do you prep for a team that runs 100 plays out of the same formation?  The communication breaks down no matter the prep time. 

    You got it right in your original post about you were just here to post useless information! 

    Once again, you only posted to get positive feedback on why FSU wins to further your worries about this game.

    Auburn doesn't have anything to lose in this game.  They're just an overrated team from a conference in a down year.  You said it!

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    Quote Originally Posted by PlayinPlot:

    Didn't take very long to remind me why I don't use this forum much anymore lol.

    The preparation advantage is huge bc against Auburn you need to be in the spot you're supposed to be and make 1 on 1 plays. Communication is huge with that. If you don't think an extra 3 weeks is a huge advantage then I'm wasting my time talking to you. 

    I stopped reading reading at "Auburn won't quit! FSU will!" Extremely insightful stuff there Bob

    How do you prep for a team that runs 100 plays out of the same formation?  The communication breaks down no matter the prep time. 

    You got it right in your original post about you were just here to post useless information! 

    Once again, you only posted to get positive feedback on why FSU wins to further your worries about this game.

    Auburn doesn't have anything to lose in this game.  They're just an overrated team from a conference in a down year.  You said it!

     
    Degen4Ever
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    Posted: Dec. 30, 2013 - 3:43 AM ET #12

    Aubrun wins by more than 3 touchdowns SEC continues to dominate I would put 3-4 teams over FSU right now theyve played nobody got exposed like baylor and niu. Gonna be a sad night for the seminoles. Just my opinion.
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    Aubrun wins by more than 3 touchdowns SEC continues to dominate I would put 3-4 teams over FSU right now theyve played nobody got exposed like baylor and niu. Gonna be a sad night for the seminoles. Just my opinion.
     
    Degen4Ever
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    Posted: Dec. 30, 2013 - 3:47 AM ET #13

    Quote Originally Posted by Degen4Ever:

    Aubrun wins by more than 3 touchdowns SEC continues to dominate I would put 3-4 teams over FSU right now theyve played nobody got exposed like baylor and niu. Gonna be a sad night for the seminoles. Just my opinion.
    Meant to say they will get exposed although FSU has only played one real team Clemson whos really not that great. Final Auburn wins 45-4 
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    Quote Originally Posted by Degen4Ever:

    Aubrun wins by more than 3 touchdowns SEC continues to dominate I would put 3-4 teams over FSU right now theyve played nobody got exposed like baylor and niu. Gonna be a sad night for the seminoles. Just my opinion.
    Meant to say they will get exposed although FSU has only played one real team Clemson whos really not that great. Final Auburn wins 45-4 
     
    Degen4Ever
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    Posted: Dec. 30, 2013 - 3:47 AM ET #14

    Quote Originally Posted by Degen4Ever:

    Meant to say they will get exposed although FSU has only played one real team Clemson whos really not that great. Final Auburn wins 45-4 
    Cant type right now wife is yelling at me 45-24.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Degen4Ever:

    Meant to say they will get exposed although FSU has only played one real team Clemson whos really not that great. Final Auburn wins 45-4 
    Cant type right now wife is yelling at me 45-24.
     
    composite
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    Posted: Dec. 30, 2013 - 4:53 AM ET #15

    I think if FSU can stop Auburn a few times on offense, it'll be a long day for Auburn.  They are horrible on defense and rely on their offense to keep them off the field.  Alabama had so many chances to put Auburn away but horrible FG kicking screwed it up for them. 

    That being said, Vegas has underestimated *BOTH* Florida State and Auburn. I think Auburn is 12-1 ATS this year.  I just worry that Auburn's running scheme is something that's very difficult to handle.

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    I think if FSU can stop Auburn a few times on offense, it'll be a long day for Auburn.  They are horrible on defense and rely on their offense to keep them off the field.  Alabama had so many chances to put Auburn away but horrible FG kicking screwed it up for them. 

    That being said, Vegas has underestimated *BOTH* Florida State and Auburn. I think Auburn is 12-1 ATS this year.  I just worry that Auburn's running scheme is something that's very difficult to handle.

     
    JonEphotBall
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    Posted: Dec. 30, 2013 - 8:02 AM ET #16

    Great write up and analysis
    Like FSU too big very big
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    Great write up and analysis
    Like FSU too big very big
     
    DrLump
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    Posted: Dec. 30, 2013 - 9:41 AM ET #17

    I think that both teams are only allowed 15 practice sessions.....starting on Dec. 18th.
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    I think that both teams are only allowed 15 practice sessions.....starting on Dec. 18th.
     
    sportsguru2013
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    Posted: Dec. 30, 2013 - 9:52 AM ET #18

    Quote Originally Posted by kingpincarbs:

    they played duke in their championship game. Very tough strength of schedule they had.

    you can cant forget NEVAD, IDAHO, AND THE MIGHTY BETHUN COOKMAN.. 

    I LOVE AUBURN TO BEAT THE BREAKS OFF FSU AND I ATTEND FSU!!!
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    Quote Originally Posted by kingpincarbs:

    they played duke in their championship game. Very tough strength of schedule they had.

    you can cant forget NEVAD, IDAHO, AND THE MIGHTY BETHUN COOKMAN.. 

    I LOVE AUBURN TO BEAT THE BREAKS OFF FSU AND I ATTEND FSU!!!
     
    sportsguru2013
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    Posted: Dec. 30, 2013 - 9:54 AM ET #19

    Quote Originally Posted by PrenticeGT:

    If the SEC was so good they wouldn't be an 8.5 point underdog to an ACC team in the title game.  This is a blowout all the way.  I like your analysis.


    Lol so you telling me you havent seen the dog win in the past 2 weeks?? Mark my words, that line is going to drop like a brick but i am getting the 8.5 before it does.. 
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    Quote Originally Posted by PrenticeGT:

    If the SEC was so good they wouldn't be an 8.5 point underdog to an ACC team in the title game.  This is a blowout all the way.  I like your analysis.


    Lol so you telling me you havent seen the dog win in the past 2 weeks?? Mark my words, that line is going to drop like a brick but i am getting the 8.5 before it does.. 
     
    LETGOPACK1234
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    Posted: Dec. 30, 2013 - 10:02 AM ET #20

    A few comments on all of this.....
     
    1) They dont get an "extra month" of practice.  The actual practice time is limited. 
     
    2) How exactly will FSU practice for Auburns offense?  Do they have the players to run the same exact offense?  No.  Just because they put in a backup QB, or heck even a WR to "try and act" like Auburns offense in practice, NOTHING compares to actually facing the Auburn offense.  The effectiveness and sharpness of FSU trying to run that offense is nothing close to what they will actually see.  If anything, the extra time off benefits the poorer Auburn defense which allows them to maybe come up with a new approach or blitz on defense.
     
    3)  Why do people keep saying the SEC is down?  Because an SEC team didnt go undefeated?  Not one team in college football would go through an SEC season undefeated....and if you think they would you dont know anything about football.  A road win in the SEC is 80% a better win than any win in any other conference.  Look at the past champs, look at the past bowl results, look at the draft results from the last years....the SEC dominates the last 7 years or so.  The 6-6 Miss ST would be ATLEAST 8-4 or 9-3 in any other conf in football. 
     
    4)  Yes, the awful schedule for FSU is important.  Who cares if they beat everybody they played by 30+???  They played garbage teams...
     
    5)  Going off of who they played this year....4 teams I believe have already played in bowl games for FSU???  Really???  Its not even Jan 1st yet   FSU will have beat 1 team who plays Jan 1 or later
     
    6) As for this amazing defense of FSU everybody is preaching about....look at the numbers for the offense they faced.  Find me a Top 10 offense they faced?  You cant   Clemson ranks #14.....the next best offense they faced was Miami who ranks #43   The same Miami team who just scored a whooping 1 TD in their bowl game
     
    7) Even if people are still betting off the fact SEC is overrated, you cant take away the defensive numbers of Bama and Mizzu, whos run D is better than FSU this year, despite FSU not facing any good rush teams.....Auburn ran all over Bama and FSU for 300 and 500+ yds
     
     
    Neither team is going to stop the other in this game.  Sure, FSU looks unstoppable this year, but they are playing their toughest opp on the 6th....this will not be the toughest game this year for Auburn.....
     
    8.5 is way too many points for this game, and with the dominance of the SEC in the past, the ML has amazing value
     
    Bet the over, sit back and enjoy the fireworks
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    A few comments on all of this.....
     
    1) They dont get an "extra month" of practice.  The actual practice time is limited. 
     
    2) How exactly will FSU practice for Auburns offense?  Do they have the players to run the same exact offense?  No.  Just because they put in a backup QB, or heck even a WR to "try and act" like Auburns offense in practice, NOTHING compares to actually facing the Auburn offense.  The effectiveness and sharpness of FSU trying to run that offense is nothing close to what they will actually see.  If anything, the extra time off benefits the poorer Auburn defense which allows them to maybe come up with a new approach or blitz on defense.
     
    3)  Why do people keep saying the SEC is down?  Because an SEC team didnt go undefeated?  Not one team in college football would go through an SEC season undefeated....and if you think they would you dont know anything about football.  A road win in the SEC is 80% a better win than any win in any other conference.  Look at the past champs, look at the past bowl results, look at the draft results from the last years....the SEC dominates the last 7 years or so.  The 6-6 Miss ST would be ATLEAST 8-4 or 9-3 in any other conf in football. 
     
    4)  Yes, the awful schedule for FSU is important.  Who cares if they beat everybody they played by 30+???  They played garbage teams...
     
    5)  Going off of who they played this year....4 teams I believe have already played in bowl games for FSU???  Really???  Its not even Jan 1st yet   FSU will have beat 1 team who plays Jan 1 or later
     
    6) As for this amazing defense of FSU everybody is preaching about....look at the numbers for the offense they faced.  Find me a Top 10 offense they faced?  You cant   Clemson ranks #14.....the next best offense they faced was Miami who ranks #43   The same Miami team who just scored a whooping 1 TD in their bowl game
     
    7) Even if people are still betting off the fact SEC is overrated, you cant take away the defensive numbers of Bama and Mizzu, whos run D is better than FSU this year, despite FSU not facing any good rush teams.....Auburn ran all over Bama and FSU for 300 and 500+ yds
     
     
    Neither team is going to stop the other in this game.  Sure, FSU looks unstoppable this year, but they are playing their toughest opp on the 6th....this will not be the toughest game this year for Auburn.....
     
    8.5 is way too many points for this game, and with the dominance of the SEC in the past, the ML has amazing value
     
    Bet the over, sit back and enjoy the fireworks
     
    PlayinPlot
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    Posted: Dec. 30, 2013 - 1:47 PM ET #21

    These responses  are exactly why I posted this in the first place. Validating my sentiments entirely. Every normal idiot thinks they've played no one and 8.5 is too many point for a SEC team. I love it. Idc who each team has played, I know talent when I see it and this FSU team is far superior talent wise than Auburn. Anything can happen in one game, but give me FSU all day. I'm just praying this line slips to 7. Please public, pound those Tigers for me!!
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    These responses  are exactly why I posted this in the first place. Validating my sentiments entirely. Every normal idiot thinks they've played no one and 8.5 is too many point for a SEC team. I love it. Idc who each team has played, I know talent when I see it and this FSU team is far superior talent wise than Auburn. Anything can happen in one game, but give me FSU all day. I'm just praying this line slips to 7. Please public, pound those Tigers for me!!
     
    Degen4Ever
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    Posted: Jan. 1, 2014 - 3:12 PM ET #22

    Gets blown out Florida State hasn't had to rely on its offense think about it the most points they've given up is 17 points I played football at a college level not that we had a good team or were in a major conference, but its a hell of a lot easier to score when your playing against your stats basically I mean really when you have NO PRESSURE NONE ZERO THE ENTIRE SEASON YOU HAVE FACED NO ADVERSITY going into a dogfight with the first or second best team in country prepared to see how it feels florida state fans when your teams struggling to come back in the third quarter down 27.
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    Gets blown out Florida State hasn't had to rely on its offense think about it the most points they've given up is 17 points I played football at a college level not that we had a good team or were in a major conference, but its a hell of a lot easier to score when your playing against your stats basically I mean really when you have NO PRESSURE NONE ZERO THE ENTIRE SEASON YOU HAVE FACED NO ADVERSITY going into a dogfight with the first or second best team in country prepared to see how it feels florida state fans when your teams struggling to come back in the third quarter down 27.
     
    sicknesscity
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    Posted: Jan. 1, 2014 - 3:39 PM ET #23

    I agree with you, Plot.  I've seen both teams play and FSU is clearly superior in terms of talent.  That doesn't always translate to a win but they have the advantage and as long as they limit turnovers, they should cover.
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    I agree with you, Plot.  I've seen both teams play and FSU is clearly superior in terms of talent.  That doesn't always translate to a win but they have the advantage and as long as they limit turnovers, they should cover.
     
    PlayinPlot
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    Posted: Jan. 1, 2014 - 7:46 PM ET #24

    Hahaha I missed LETGOPACKs stupidity earlier. Fact he loves Auburn Makes me even more confident.

    Think what you may but I've been right about this team all along and know way more about them than any of you do. Yeah Auburn needed a miracle at home against that Georgia team that lost to Nebraska today LOL. Obviously doesn't mean anything, but there is no doubt in my mind the SEC is down from DOMINANT teams. Yes, they have a bunch of good teams which is why it was so competitive this year. Auburn is light years behind FSU in terms of talent. It's the National Championship anything can happen, but FSU w the points here is definitely a +EV play. When I'm right again, come lash all you want. But I guess my thoughts about FSUs D mean nothing bc they haven't played better than the 14th ranked offense Such a joke of a comment that I won't waste anymore of my time.

    SCALP EM 
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    Hahaha I missed LETGOPACKs stupidity earlier. Fact he loves Auburn Makes me even more confident.

    Think what you may but I've been right about this team all along and know way more about them than any of you do. Yeah Auburn needed a miracle at home against that Georgia team that lost to Nebraska today LOL. Obviously doesn't mean anything, but there is no doubt in my mind the SEC is down from DOMINANT teams. Yes, they have a bunch of good teams which is why it was so competitive this year. Auburn is light years behind FSU in terms of talent. It's the National Championship anything can happen, but FSU w the points here is definitely a +EV play. When I'm right again, come lash all you want. But I guess my thoughts about FSUs D mean nothing bc they haven't played better than the 14th ranked offense Such a joke of a comment that I won't waste anymore of my time.

    SCALP EM 
     
     
    Beningo88
    Beningo88
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    Posted: Jan. 1, 2014 - 7:48 PM ET #25

    Nice work 
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    Nice work 
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