Week<8

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Before week 8

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Week 2-4

Stanford is a big dog on week 2 

Line wise that leaves them vulnerable in week 1 laying a smaller to Hawaii in week 1

I dont put much cred in revenge games.  

Hawaii ranked out of the top 25 but that are listed as one of the teams close to the top 25.

Look ahead game for Stanford so this does qualify as a game to look at.

#1 i played football when i was younger, and football is all about the revenge game. That shows me that you be drinking that kool aid when these coaches try to downplay it. #2 Hawaii away from the island , a different team. #3 people forget that LY stanford had a 10 pt lead on Hawaii. This Stanford team is a better team this YEAR. so u think Hawaii is all of sudden dangerous? who they beat? Stanford owns these guys and they will prove it week 0. its really sad that we talking about stanford like this 

Bro, I just be trying to be on the right side of the number bro.

I actually had big money on this game LY and i was sweating bullets the whole game in Vegas. I dont feel like this is an easy W for Hawaii

the right side is Stanford

@FloatinPicks

 I appreciate opposite sides.  You stated in your posts that you dont like favorites.  Facts are I am Dog 95% of the time.

This bet on Hawaii is mostly a fade of Stanford.  Also Espn has Hawaii ranked in the top 40.  Thats amazing and could be terrible for my Hawaii bet.  I also dont think Hawaii is getting enough credibility as they are improving.  

Could be Hawaii takes a dump this year.  

I like to fade teams with big dog likes and look ahead situations.  Therefore Stanford qualifies.  Add in Stanford is 1-7 ATS last 8 games, and that's over 10 season so rarely a hone favorite.  

Hawaii is not a top play or best bet.  Stanford qualifies as a team with a possible upset game.  

My posting here is not about breaking down these games.  I dont have time to dig deep in to rosters and such. 

If you do that more power to you

Im recreational bettor guy until week6-12.  I should find middle success until then.  I need the teams to set up some past games so I can fit them into what has been successful for me.

I dont look for easy wins on dog bets.  I look for competitive games where it's possible for a dog to get a lead and hang tight.  We are much different on our approach.  Thats fine.

 You sound very passionate and a sound mind.  Ill follow you as a source of deleting some of my plays if you sustain a good Win rate.  I look forward to reading your weekly thread

Best wishes

Wins are gonna be hard to come by for Stanford, especially on the road where five of their six games are in the eastern time zone. This is a game the Cardinal absolutely has to have to have any glimmer of hope for bowl eligibility. Money seems to be on Stan. The line is up to 5' now.

@Boisestateand8

 I'm not a believer in must wins 

Stanford has to show me they are capable of being favorites

Recent history shows they are not worthy 1-7 ATS last 8 as home fans.  Big game on deck too

Small bet size because how much has Haw improved. It's Hawaii on the road that in itself might be tough for Hawaii

ESPN has Sanford unranked and Hawaii ranked 48 

Last year was very competitive in this match up and I hope for the same.

If Stanford scores early and often it's over but I would like to see Hawaii to get a lead. 

It's just one game.  I certainly could be wrong.  It's week 1

Eastern Mich is historically a terrible home chalk so I will take oppo them in these games

E.MCH Are home favorites in games 1&2

Could they cover both yes but as trends go they should 1-1 at best

Sac St+

San Jose + week 2

Colorado +6.5 

Ball state +50.5 no pregame et but in-game if the line climbs. I dont see a cover by 50 but I think 50.5 is not the best line so I'll wait or pass

n.Tex +40.5 vs indy

The history isn't TOO recent. They're 0-2 ATS as home chalk over the last four years. And that seems pretty irrelevant considering they have a new coaching staff and more stability than they've had for a while. They also have a lot more returning production than Hawaii, which is typical for a Power Four vs. Group of Six matchup in this NIL/transfer portal era.

@Boisestateand8

 Good conversation

It's ok to be opposites. You're points are valid but I also have my mind set.

Hawaii yea hard to to totally believe in.  I get it, but Stanfords next game is huge.  In my ways and systems could have Hawaii competitive here. 

These early season games could be a fast start for a few of these teams.  If a team starts the first quarter hot must not chase on the bad team.

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week<6 and season!=2022 and rank<18 and tpS(playoffs)!=0 and tpS(playoffs)<4 and season>2020 and line<2

UCLA PIK

@IamDog

 BOL on your plays. 

@Boisestateand8

I like the dogs that no 1 will think can win the game, and they cover the spread, and win the game. Like USF+4.5 LY wk1 vs. Bosie st, what a shocker

Last year C.mich +14 vs SJSU 

CMU won 16-14

Stanford was -7.5 last time they played hawaii in palo 

That line went up to -9.5 the final was 37-20

Then Stanford opened -2.5 at hawaii last year 

That line flipped to hawaii -2.5 the final 23-20

This year Stanford opened -3.5 in palo

That should tell you all you need to know 

Here you go D in the Stanford game.........those home favorites win straight up only 41% of the time. 

This has been 1-14 ATS the last 15 games.

HF and n:line>10 and nn:line>10 and n:line-on:line>3 and week<6 and line>-10

That game in '23 was actually played on the islands.

You could see the writing on the wall for that game. Teams from the Pacific Northwest generally struggle in the heat and humidity of Florida early in the season. Boise played like they were in quicksand in that game.

That's right stanford closed as a -9.5 at hawaii which really highlights the problem. They had a perfectly serviceable coach in shaw, a bit overpaid but they were feared. Nobody wanted to play stanford. They went with a budget hire from sac st in 2023 then went with the interim coach. Now another coach, the team is cursed, luck and the AD have destroyed the team