Week 6 Thoughts....

Question

As usual lately, not going to be around during the day to talk about things....but lets discuss.

Last week was the turning point. If someone lost last week, chances are they wont win again until the last week of November when squares get that one week as bait before bowl season. Keep that in mind.

VT was in a great spot and just didnt show up. Clemson keep proving doubters wrong.

Washington played one of the best games you will see all year.

About this week...

Cal should cover that line. People are forgetting that Oregon cant just name their score. Oregon cant stop Cal enough to cover 17, let alone 24.

Was hoping for 10 in the RRS. You cant keep an OU backer away from the window for anything, though, so I still may see it. That game is closer than people expect.

BC is a must play at anything over 20. Clemson cant keep this level of play up. You can get rich fading a team that won SU on the road as a dog when they come home to be favored the next week. This game stays way under the total. Clemson is on upset alert next week regardless.

Iowa is a huge suckers line.

Going back to the well and selling Army high again. Miami O should get that elusive W.

Bang Bowling Green. Fading WMU off a SU win on the road over a BCS conference while dogged. This game gets decided in the 4th.

ASU going to have a rough time up in Utah.

The EMU line is a joke. I grabbed it at 21 earlier. Its a FG too much. If you bet on Toledo this week, get yourself a lifesaver. That boat has sailed. Dont get back on that bandwagon. You are a week late.

Tenny stops the run and throws all over UGA.

Huge, huge suckers line on Air Force. Wow.

Going to be nice to see Oregon State win a game.

Thinking Southern Miss is the right side.

Keep the freaking points with Idaho - they get the win they shouldve against Fresno.

I have no idea how A&M plays again this week. All over TT. What a set of heartbreaking losses back to back.

WAZZU, TCU both losers.

You have thoughts? Drop em....

RJSizzle · Answer

As usual lately, not going to be around during the day to talk about things....but lets discuss.

Last week was the turning point. If someone lost last week, chances are they wont win again until the last week of November when squares get that one week as bait before bowl season. Keep that in mind.

VT was in a great spot and just didnt show up. Clemson keep proving doubters wrong.

Washington played one of the best games you will see all year.

About this week...

Cal should cover that line. People are forgetting that Oregon cant just name their score. Oregon cant stop Cal enough to cover 17, let alone 24.

Was hoping for 10 in the RRS. You cant keep an OU backer away from the window for anything, though, so I still may see it. That game is closer than people expect.

BC is a must play at anything over 20. Clemson cant keep this level of play up. You can get rich fading a team that won SU on the road as a dog when they come home to be favored the next week. This game stays way under the total. Clemson is on upset alert next week regardless.

Iowa is a huge suckers line.

Going back to the well and selling Army high again. Miami O should get that elusive W.

Bang Bowling Green. Fading WMU off a SU win on the road over a BCS conference while dogged. This game gets decided in the 4th.

ASU going to have a rough time up in Utah.

The EMU line is a joke. I grabbed it at 21 earlier. Its a FG too much. If you bet on Toledo this week, get yourself a lifesaver. That boat has sailed. Dont get back on that bandwagon. You are a week late.

Tenny stops the run and throws all over UGA.

Huge, huge suckers line on Air Force. Wow.

Going to be nice to see Oregon State win a game.

Thinking Southern Miss is the right side.

Keep the freaking points with Idaho - they get the win they shouldve against Fresno.

I have no idea how A&M plays again this week. All over TT. What a set of heartbreaking losses back to back.

WAZZU, TCU both losers.

You have thoughts? Drop em....

Getty3 · Answer

Air Force/Navy was one of the most emotional, give-it-your all games I have ever seen. Both teams will lose badly this week, and won't even care.

UL-Monroe comes home after battling TCU and Iowa on the road. Arky State got fat and lazy playing a Div. 2 school and the Sunbelt doormat, Western Kentucky. Monroe was my pre-season pick to win this conference. This is my best play of the year thus far, much less this week. ULM ML

RJSizzle · Answer

AF/Navy was a great fucking game. Loved to win money on it. I looked at ULM and the line dropping from 4 to 2 speaks a bit. Getty

Arid_Torpor · Answer

Jumped on Iowa at &#x2B;4, so I hope you&#x27;re wrong. Debating Air Force, but am a bit concerned about it being a sucker line. Not against any of your other thoughts except possibly Oregon. Tempted by the Ducks at home, but not totally convinced by them. On Bowling Green and Hipster Miami, and seriously looking at Eastern Michigan. Considering BC. Absolutely loving BGSU. Favorite spot of the week. Think ASU pulls it out in Utah, but it&#x27;ll likely be tight. The Sun Devils have been easy to predict thus far, and keeping composure on the road is not really their thing. Think Texas keeps the RRS close, but not sure if I play it unless it hits 10. I had it at 6.5. Hoping I&#x27;m not a homer in giving the Vols the edge over Georgia, probably not betting it. Thought Louisiana Tech would be a nice road dog. As a road fave? Staying off. Not fading Utah State for the same reason you&#x27;re fading Texas A&amp;M? Wyoming is a live dog.

RJSizzle · Answer

I just fucking hate Wyoming. True Story.

Arid_Torpor · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by Getty3]&#xD;&#xA;UL-Monroe comes home after battling TCU and Iowa on the road. Arky State got fat and lazy playing a Div. 2 school and the Sunbelt doormat, Western Kentucky. Monroe was my pre-season pick to win this conference. This is my best play of the year thus far, much less this week. ULM ML   [/Quote]Kinda with you on ULM, although I&#x27;d feel more comfortable if they had more tangible results other than being semi-close against TCU. Guess that&#x27;s why we get them as a dog. Wish it&#x27;d hit 3 though.

Arid_Torpor · Answer

Of all the teams to hate, Wyoming? Unless you&#x27;re a Tennessee or Colorado State fan, I don&#x27;t get it.

Tone10 · Answer

Already grabbed Boston College &#x2B;21.5, Bowling Green &#x2B;11, and Eastern Michigan &#x2B;21 &#xD;&#xA;Love the trend of fading a home favorite that won straight up as a road underdog the week before. As you always say, these are great spots because those teams are always overvalued and they&#x27;re in a let down spot.&#xD;&#xA;It&#x27;s made money for me in the past, it&#x27;s made money for me this year, so I&#x27;m not going to hop off it.

Ice4Blood · Answer

Clemson is most definitely not on upset alert this week... they may or may not cover the spread, but they are definitely not on upset alert, and will most likely cover the spread... Boston College is an absolutely horrible football team, and betting on them is not a formula for making money in CFB this year...

SatNightFever05 · Answer

Already on Tech and Miami, OH..Lean Southern Miss, BC, BGI get buying low on Penn State, but snagged Iowa

WahooS · Answer

Texas will give OU all they can handle Lean cal - bgreen - Tenn

Getty3 · Answer

Fennis Dembo &#xD;&#xA;Oops, wrong sport.&#xD;&#xA;I thought BC may have turned the corner after putting up 42 against 1-AA UMass, but after watching them play like the 3 Stooges against a lame Wake defense, I know they haven&#x27;t. Their defense is solid, and Sizzle has the right idea with the under in the BC/Clemson game.

RJSizzle · Answer

BC is absolutely horrible, which is why we get this line. Its a given. Its like saying Clemson wears orange. There is no formula for making money in CFB. Its all just trying to buy and sell teams at the right spots.

lonelycoyote · Answer

I&#x27;m just going to ride Stanford and Alabama for the rest of the year.

WahooS · Answer

Not always true RJSometimes Clemson wears purple, you need to get your facts straight

RetainLane · Answer

Sizzle:

Curious as to why you are backing Oregon State here. I was on them last week @ Arizona St, but don't think they get it done here.

Mannion (sp?) is too green for my taste, and while I realize Arizona doesn't have much of a D & are one dimensional, I think Foles will be too much for OSU.

Thoughts?

RJSizzle · Answer

Really tough place to play. Opening line screams OSU covers. I dont have much more for you. I dont look at stats or any of that stuff.

RJSizzle · Answer

Foles is way overrated too. He hasnt shown up a few times too many.

DirtyBird13 · Answer

got cal at 24...glad to c that u agree...bol sizzle

RJSizzle · Answer

Sounds, like a great idea. Good luck to you. Keep in mind, though, that a better Alabama team went 7-5 ATS last year and Stanford didnt cover 3 straight around this time last year. The books usually start to catch up to the people who are bloated after winning big weeks 1-4. I wish you luck.

1bajalife · Answer

Good stuff RJ

Arid_Torpor · Answer

One that stuck out on going through them again: Minnesota &#x2B;10. Does Purdue really deserve to be laying ten points to anybody? I know Minnesota is terrible, but they&#x27;ve at least had a pulse in two games so far, and Purdue is in a somewhat unfamiliar role as a favorite. Any thoughts?

RetainLane · Answer

I believe school started recently in Corvallis so it should be a tougher atmosphere than UCLA faced.  I don&#x27;t look at stats either, prefer to play spots/situations.  I&#x27;m still leaning Arizona here.  BOL this week man.

Jose_Reyes · Answer

Nice work last week RJ. Boston College is looking good this week. Clemson knows they can sleep walk through this game and win, just like Temple knew they could handle Toledo last week. Fantastic spot for a let down by Clemson, specifically due to the poor quality opponent. Toledo last week, and BC this week are the ugly dogs no one wants to take.

Love reading your threads early in the week. Keep up the good work.

mws · Answer

Yeah, it&#x27;s a bad spot for Clemson ... again.  Maybe BC will pull one out of their ass the way they did at FSU last year.  &#xD;&#xA;But how are these teams supposed to combine for 55.5 points?  Who could possibly have pushed the total UP from 53 to 55.4 after it opened at 54?  What could they have been thinking?  &#xD;&#xA;BC is 19-3 to the under since the middle of 2009, and they haven&#x27;t faced a total this high since Matt Ryan&#x27;s last game in 2007.  They&#x27;ve been consistently going under numbers much lower than this for the last two years.  Is it just that people are grossly underrating Clemson&#x27;s defense?

Week 6 Thoughts....

Hot Forum Topics