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Week 1 Line Guesses---DEGEN Specal

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Posted: #276
Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:

yeah not sure why so much Tulsa love...
unless getting a TD or so.....wouldn't touch it
Graham's #'s....
0-4 road dog
3-5 dog
3-9-1 CUSA road
9-16-1 CUSA

pass D is weak.....and doesn't bring much pressure...

* the pirate DL with "plenty " of experience (didn't count the snaps though ).....has zero career starts
.....LB's have 11......0/7 starters return.....best way to read these boys may be to avoid....rather than to auto-fade...


9 O starters for Tulsa though- 35th in nation in total O in 2009.. should be pretty good.. D still has work... BUT..

ECU breaks in new QB, new RB, 2 new OL and an entire new system that relies on QB to make quick decisions..

Pirates might end up grasping the TTech-like O eventually, but that's a lot to ask in week 1, esp. when also breaking in 9 new D starters...
 
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Posted: #277

Thursday

Ohio St.  27.5 Marshall    

SC   14.5  S. Miss

Iowa St  10.5  Northern Illinois

USC  24  *Hawaii  

Utah 1.5  Pitt  

Minnesota 1   *MD TN St. 

Friday Sept 3rd

Arizona 15.5  *Toledo

Saturday Sept 4th

Colorado  10.5  Colorado St  (Denver)

LSU   +1.5    UNC   (Atlanta)

Notre Dame 10.5  Purdue  

Syracuse  9   *Akron

Army    6.5    *EMU

Clemson  35.5  North Texas

Auburn 27.5  Arkansas St

Troy   13.5  Bowling Green    

Michigan  4.5   UConn

Missouri   10.5  Illinois    (St. Louis)

UAB     6.5   FAU

Kentucky  5.5  *Louisville

Georgia  29.5  Lou-La

Mississippi St  17.5  Memphis

Texas 42  *Rice

Florida   42.5   Miami Ohio

Oregon  29.5   New Mexico

Vanderbilt  1   Northwestern

Alabama  40   SJ St

Kansas St  1.5   UCLA

Washington +1  *BYU

Oklahoma St  25.5 Washington St

Nebraska  36.5  WKU

Michigan St.  21  WMU

Wisconsin  22.5  *UNLV

Oklahoma 34  Utah St

Cincinnati  Pick  *Fresno St.

TCU  8.5  Oregon St  (dallas)

BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
 
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Posted: #278

Sunday Sept. 5th

ECU   Pick   Tulsa

Texas Tech 17.5  SMU  

Monday Sept 6th

Navy    4.5   Maryland  (Baltimore)

Virginia Tech  Pick  Boise St.

BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
 
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Posted: #279
9 O starters for Tulsa though- 35th in nation in total O in 2009.. should be pretty good.. D still has work... BUT..

yeah we know EC has nobody back.....AND Tulsa (should) be better........SO......you gotta get a "starting point" for Tulsa....> how bad were they REALLY last year.....?

Offense?....
despite facing some of nation's WORST D's......
rankings (yds/play) >  112 ...106...104...100...93...82...71...54...54...20...4... + Sam Houston..... (so 8 teams worse than 70th best)
      *managed 269 vs OU...295 vs Boise....266 vs ECaro....322 vs SMU

true #32 in yds/play...(5.3)

but #62 rushing at 3.4/rush
#74 in 3rd down eff (35%)
56th in scoring (21.7)
RZ #105
TFL allowed #108 (7.8/game)
sacks allowed #118 (4.2/game).......HOLY SHIT

also fumbled 14 times (lost 7) in their 6 games vs winning opponents).......all stats vs winning opponents
       * not really a very good offense.....also gotta factor in TREMENDOUS drop-off form '08....must ask the question.....can they do it without Malzahn ?

Defense ......need a D to try out new passing offense ?.....best bet may be the golden hurricane....1 starter returns from secondary that ranked among nations's worst.....

#117 in yds/game
#115 in Passer Rating
#100 in % allowed (67%)
     * also allowed 20 PASSING TD's in those 6 games .....vs winning teams .... wow

total D #90 (6.4/play)
rush D #69 (4.1/rush)
scoring D #102
    * basically allowed 39 points.....25 1st downs....and 500 yds to good teams.....yikes
It is better to be feared - than to be loved.
 
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Posted: #280
Just got Steele's SEC / ACC / BE regional.......
in this one he has one page on EVERY FCS team also.....so if you like to dabble in that area......highly recommended......
     * check out Nichols State...breaking in a new O....spread to pro set.....with 5/4 starters
at Air Force week 1......last year 72-0....
It is better to be feared - than to be loved.
 
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Posted: #281
Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:

9 O starters for Tulsa though- 35th in nation in total O in 2009.. should be pretty good.. D still has work... BUT..

but #62 rushing at 3.4/rush
#74 in 3rd down eff (35%)
56th in scoring (21.7)
RZ #105
TFL allowed #108 (7.8/game)
sacks allowed #118 (4.2/game).......HOLY SHIT


A lot can be attributed to OL injuries- had 2 OL starters going into LY and one (leader), LT Tyler Holmes went down with injury.. from there line fell apart.. this year, 9 of top 10 OL are back and it can't get any worse than LY..

Also, brought in co-OC Chad Morris, who is friends with Malzahn and ran his version of spread and won couple state HS titles..

Agree D is just awful, but not sure ECU's new QB, whoever that is, will be able to exploit it..

Tulsa had some close losses too: 7 to Boise, 4 @UTEP, 1 to Houston
 
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Posted: #282
Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:

Just got Steele's SEC / ACC / BE regional.......
in this one he has one page on EVERY FCS team also.....so if you like to dabble in that area......highly recommended......
     * check out Nichols State...breaking in a new O....spread to pro set.....with 5/4 starters
at Air Force week 1......last year 72-0....


scratch that.....but even better maybe.....the Colonels at San Diego St  week 1


looks like WAY too much guessing here.....TU/ECU
wanna force a play......week 1 ?....go ahead
(assuming close to pick em)......if TD+....with you
It is better to be feared - than to be loved.
 
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Posted: #283

Below are the Min/Max Spreads I would want in order to place a Wager... 

Ohio St.-20.5   Marshall 28.5+ 

SC -9   S. Miss +16

Iowa St  -5.5  Northern Illinois +13

USC  -21  *Hawaii +30.5 

Utah +4  Pitt  -1  

Minnesota +7   *MD TN St. -2.5

Friday Sept 3rd

Arizona -13  *Toledo +23

Saturday Sept 4th

Colorado -7  Colorado St +14.5  (Denver)

LSU   +4.5    UNC +3   (Atlanta)

Notre Dame -4  Purdue  +10.5  

Syracuse  -10   *Akron  +24.5

Army  -10    *EMU  +27

Clemson  -28  North Texas +43.5

Auburn -29.5  Arkansas St +48

Troy  -13  Bowling Green  +27    

Michigan  -3   UConn  +10.5

Missouri  -6.5  Illinois +14.5    (St. Louis)

UAB   -7   FAU  +17.5

Kentucky -6  *Louisville +14

Georgia  -28  Lou-La  +42.5 

Mississippi St  17  Memphis +30

Texas -35  Rice  +51

Florida  -38   Miami Ohio +52.5

Oregon  28   New Mexico  +45.5

Vanderbilt  +6.5  Northwestern -2.5

BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
 
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Posted: #284

Continued

Alabama -29.5   SJ St  +47

Kansas St  -2.5   UCLA  +6

Washington +1.5  *BYU  +4.5

Oklahoma St -14 Washington St +24.5

Nebraska 28  WKU   +47

Michigan St. 20   WMU  +31.5

Wisconsin  19.5  *UNLV  +28

Oklahoma 33  Utah St +49

Cincinnati  ML +120   *Fresno St. Ml+125

TCU  6  Oregon St 13+

Sunday Sept. 5th

ECU  +6  Tulsa  Pick

Texas Tech -12.5  SMU 17.5+ 

Monday Sept 6th

Navy -4   Maryland +13 (Baltimore)

Virginia Tech +4 Boise St.  ML+100 

BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
 
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Posted: #285

My 7 Top Leans  for week 1 Wagering 

Army anything under -7..... Might be my Largest wager for week 1.....A Must win for the Black Knights Bowl Hopes...   

Syracuse upto -9.5...  Akron should be bottom 7 this year... Not sure they can stay within 2 TD's... The Zips are going through Major Changes with their 1st year HC

Northwestern + anything    just Hoping the Wildcats are the Dog...

Auburn -upto 27.5... This game should get real ugly...

Kansas St as a Home Dog...... Would love to get a ML of +125 or more .... Neither Team looks Fantasttic on Paper, But as usual UCLA will be getting too much respect at the betting window....  

Middle Tennessee St. as a Home Dog or slight Fav.... Much bigger game for the Blue Raiders...

Troy upto -13.... Payback for last year... The Trojans went up 14-0 and could have been looking ahead to Florida on deck ... BG scored 31 Straight Points(costing me a Large Opening night Wager)

 

 

BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
 
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Posted: #286
Quote Originally Posted by DoubleUp4Life:

My 7 Top Leans  for week 1 Wagering

Troy upto -13.... Payback for last year... The Trojans went up 14-0 and could have been looking ahead to Florida on deck ... BG scored 31 Straight Points(costing me a Large Opening night Wager)



Like Troy as well.. not to mention BG lost 75%+ of its scoring from LY with Sheehan and Barnes gone.. The Falcon's could be last year's Ball State (who lost as 20 pt fav in week 1 to North Texas)..

 
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Posted: #287

Quote Originally Posted by BBallday10:



Like Troy as well.. not to mention BG lost 75%+ of its scoring from LY with Sheehan and Barnes gone.. The Falcon's could be last year's Ball State (who lost as 20 pt fav in week 1 to North Texas)..


Really down on Bowling Green this year, J

ust like you said they lost alot ...

 Have to be around 110-116 in my current top 120....Really down on the MAC this year...   Don't see any schools that really stand above the rest...

 

BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
 
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Posted: #288

Thursday

Ohio St.  27.5 Marshall    

SC   14  S. Miss

Iowa St  10.5  Northern Illinois

USC  24  *Hawaii  

Utah 3  Pitt  

Minnesota 1   *MD TN St. 

Friday Sept 3rd

Arizona 15.5  *Toledo

Saturday Sept 4th

Colorado  10.5  Colorado St  (Denver)

LSU   +1     UNC   (Atlanta)

Notre Dame 10.5  Purdue  

Syracuse  9   *Akron

Army    6.5    *EMU

Clemson  35.5  North Texas

Auburn 27.5  Arkansas St

Troy   13.5  Bowling Green    

Michigan  4.5   UConn

Missouri   10.5  Illinois    (St. Louis)

UAB     9   FAU

Kentucky  6  *Louisville

Georgia  29.5  Lou-La

Mississippi St  17.5  Memphis

Texas 42.5  Rice    (houston)

Florida   42.5   Miami Ohio

Oregon  30   New Mexico

Vanderbilt  1   Northwestern

Alabama  40   SJ St

Kansas St  +1.5   UCLA

Washington +1  *BYU

Oklahoma St  25.5 Washington St

Nebraska  36.5  WKU

Michigan St.  21  WMU

Wisconsin  20.5  *UNLV

Oklahoma 34  Utah St

Cincinnati  Pick  *Fresno St.

TCU  8.5  Oregon St  (dallas)

BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
 
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Posted: #289

Sunday Sept. 5th

ECU   Pick    Tulsa

Texas Tech 17.5  SMU  

Monday Sept 6th

Navy    4.5   Maryland  (Baltimore)

Virginia Tech  +1.5  Boise St.

BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
 
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Posted: #290
Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:

9 O starters for Tulsa though- 35th in nation in total O in 2009.. should be pretty good.. D still has work... BUT..

yeah we know EC has nobody back.....AND Tulsa (should) be better........SO......you gotta get a "starting point" for Tulsa....> how bad were they REALLY last year.....?

Offense?....
despite facing some of nation's WORST D's......
rankings (yds/play) >  112 ...106...104...100...93...82...71...54...54...20...4... + Sam Houston..... (so 8 teams worse than 70th best)
      *managed 269 vs OU...295 vs Boise....266 vs ECaro....322 vs SMU

true #32 in yds/play...(5.3)

but #62 rushing at 3.4/rush
#74 in 3rd down eff (35%)
56th in scoring (21.7)
RZ #105
TFL allowed #108 (7.8/game)
sacks allowed #118 (4.2/game).......HOLY SHIT

also fumbled 14 times (lost 7) in their 6 games vs winning opponents).......all stats vs winning opponents
       * not really a very good offense.....also gotta factor in TREMENDOUS drop-off form '08....must ask the question.....can they do it without Malzahn ?

Defense ......need a D to try out new passing offense ?.....best bet may be the golden hurricane....1 starter returns from secondary that ranked among nations's worst.....

#117 in yds/game
#115 in Passer Rating
#100 in % allowed (67%)
     * also allowed 20 PASSING TD's in those 6 games .....vs winning teams .... wow

total D #90 (6.4/play)
rush D #69 (4.1/rush)
scoring D #102
    * basically allowed 39 points.....25 1st downs....and 500 yds to good teams.....yikes

Yeah Bookie you are doing a good job of Talking me out of betting on Tulsa .....

ECU has a Tough schedule with several land mines.... ..can't wait to see what the New Offense does ......not sure about ATS, but I don't see them winning more than 6 games Straight Up....

in the end I will be on Tulsa as long as they are not laying more than 2, Not a large wager , so thanks to you

 

BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
 
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Posted: #291
vanderbilts football coach bobby johnson resigned this morning..7 weeks before the opener...maybe a look at Northwestern
 
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Posted: #292
With your numbers, I'd be leaning towards these games. Granted, I haven't done as much research as I want to yet.

1. Pittsburgh +3
2. Purdue +10.5
3. Auburn -27.5
4. Connecticut +4.5 (the one I'm most unsure of at this point. A TD here would be an auto-play I think.)
5. Northwestern +1 (plus anything here. They'll win this one by 10+ IMO.)
6. San Jose State +40 (will probably stay away from this one, but all those points are going to be tempting for me. Bama has Penn State on deck. See a 35-3 game here, but I'll do my best to steer clear.)
7. Washington State +25.5 (Cougs are awful, but OK State should be at the bottom of the Big 12 this year, right? Is bottom of the Big 12 26 points better than bottom of the Pac-10?)
8. Tulsa PK
9. Navy -4.5
10. Boise State -1.5

Would hope to cut this down to a list of 3-4 that I would go strong on. I'm trying to cut down my plays this year and go larger on them.
 
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Posted: #293

Quote Originally Posted by DaimondD:

vanderbilts football coach bobby johnson resigned this morning..7 weeks before the opener...maybe a look at Northwestern

this will mess with the liine .... now thinking Northwestern will be laying 3+

BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
 
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Posted: #294
Quote Originally Posted by DoubleUp4Life:

this will mess with the liine .... now thinking Northwestern will be laying 3+

very possible...there is a press conference at 1:00 this afternoon.  gotta believe they will go the interim head coach route for the season.  more than likely  Robbie Caldwell, their o-line coach, or Bruce Fowler, their d-cord, will take the job. 

there have been rumors flying around on nashville radio about phil fulmer. i am interested to see what happens to this line though

 
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Posted: #295

Quote Originally Posted by TRoe15:

With your numbers, I'd be leaning towards these games. Granted, I haven't done as much research as I want to yet.

1. Pittsburgh +3
2. Purdue +10.5
3. Auburn -27.5
4. Connecticut +4.5 (the one I'm most unsure of at this point. A TD here would be an auto-play I think.)
5. Northwestern +1 (plus anything here. They'll win this one by 10+ IMO.)
6. San Jose State +40 (will probably stay away from this one, but all those points are going to be tempting for me. Bama has Penn State on deck. See a 35-3 game here, but I'll do my best to steer clear.)
7. Washington State +25.5 (Cougs are awful, but OK State should be at the bottom of the Big 12 this year, right? Is bottom of the Big 12 26 points better than bottom of the Pac-10?)
8. Tulsa PK
9. Navy -4.5
10. Boise State -1.5

Would hope to cut this down to a list of 3-4 that I would go strong on. I'm trying to cut down my plays this year and go larger on them.

Really agree with most if not all of your Leans   ....

Pitt is catching 4.5 at Utah week 1 on 5 Dimes right now .... looks like a toss up game but the Panthers are very alive getting over  a FG

Like that Washington st lean.... would Love 28+

How do you think Robert Marve will do for Purdue ??

Brother You sound like a long time CFB bettor when you talk about cutting down the games you wager on,  and increasing the amount

BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
 
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Posted: #296

Thursday

Ohio St.  27.5 Marshall    

SC   14  S. Miss    14 5D

Iowa St  10.5  Northern Illinois 

USC  24.5  *Hawaii  

Utah 3.5  Pitt    4.5  5D

Minnesota 1   *MD TN St. 

Friday Sept 3rd

Arizona 15.5  *Toledo

Saturday Sept 4th

Colorado  10.5  Colorado St   10 5D   (Denver)

LSU   +1     UNC   (Atlanta)  PK 5D

Notre Dame 10  Purdue  9 5D

Syracuse  9   *Akron

Army    7    *EMU

Clemson  37  North Texas

Auburn 28  Arkansas St

Troy   14  Bowling Green    

Michigan  4.5   UConn  4 5D

Missouri   10.5  Illinois  10 5D   (St. Louis)

UAB     9.5    FAU

Kentucky  6  *Louisville   6  5D

Georgia  29.5  Lou-La

Mississippi St  18.5  Memphis

Texas 43.5  Rice    (houston)

Florida   42.5   Miami Ohio

Oregon  30.5   New Mexico

Vanderbilt+2.5     Northwestern

Alabama  41    SJ St

Kansas St  +3   UCLA   3 5D

Washington +3  *BYU     +3  5D

Oklahoma St  26.5 Washington St

Nebraska  36.5  WKU

Michigan St.  21  WMU

Wisconsin  20.5  *UNLV  18 5D

Oklahoma 34.5  Utah St

BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
 
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Posted: #297

Cincinnati  Pick  *Fresno St. PK 5D

TCU  9.5  Oregon St  (dallas) 9 5D

Sunday Sept. 5th

ECU   Pick    Tulsa

Texas Tech 17.5  SMU  

Monday Sept 6th

Navy    4.5   Maryland  (Baltimore)

Virginia Tech  +1.5  Boise St. +2 5D 

BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
 
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Posted: #298
Minnesota 1   *MD TN St.
Troy   14  Bowling Green   

Vanderbilt+2.5     Northwestern

Michigan St.  21  WMU

ECU   Pick    Tulsa

My 5 favs of your leans.. 
 
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Posted: #299

Brother BBallday10

Middle Tennessee St better not be laying a FG or more .... Minnesota should garner enough repect to be the slight Fav

Troy   just thinking blowout ...

Northwestern as a slight Fav , but anything over a FG scares me

 Michigan St should come out blazing ... see 42+ Points scored...bad feeling I am way off on the Line Guess and it's around 26...

Tulsa better not be a Fav either

 

got any Leans Brother????

 

BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
 
 
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Posted: #300
Quote Originally Posted by DaimondD:

very possible...there is a press conference at 1:00 this afternoon.  gotta believe they will go the interim head coach route for the season.  more than likely  Robbie Caldwell, their o-line coach, or Bruce Fowler, their d-cord, will take the job. 

there have been rumors flying around on nashville radio about phil fulmer. i am interested to see what happens to this line though

with you ,,, hopefully we don't see Northwestern laying points Now ....

BOL this season Brother and thanks for stopping by

BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
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