Question for you power ratings guys, would Cuse have been a road favorite at MiamiOH this time last week?
Although it seems impossible now, before last week's results (28 and 40 off the number) based on line based power ratings and factoring in what would be a realistic number, Miami OH would have been a 7-10 point favorite. Syracuse rating and public perception were extremely low before last week losing by more than 20 in all games, while MiaOH was competitive with Ball St and Minn (road) and blown out by respected Cincy.
The Louisville showing quickly boosted Orange power rating, while a 0-42 shutout and realization of impact of MiaOH injuries lowered theirs significantly and hence a 10-12 swing from week to week.
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Quote Originally Posted by The Garfather:
Question for you power ratings guys, would Cuse have been a road favorite at MiamiOH this time last week?
Although it seems impossible now, before last week's results (28 and 40 off the number) based on line based power ratings and factoring in what would be a realistic number, Miami OH would have been a 7-10 point favorite. Syracuse rating and public perception were extremely low before last week losing by more than 20 in all games, while MiaOH was competitive with Ball St and Minn (road) and blown out by respected Cincy.
The Louisville showing quickly boosted Orange power rating, while a 0-42 shutout and realization of impact of MiaOH injuries lowered theirs significantly and hence a 10-12 swing from week to week.
I put USM in this morning at +411.6. Feeling a little sketchy about it, having seen how they usually play against competent opponents on the road. I guess we'll learn something about this team one way or another.......
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I put USM in this morning at +411.6. Feeling a little sketchy about it, having seen how they usually play against competent opponents on the road. I guess we'll learn something about this team one way or another.......
Nostra, how could that team with injuries and no offense have been laying a TD or more to anyone.
Thanks pags11, back at you.
Gmo, they do, but not tremendously so. Its worth it to go big sometimes.
gar - keep in mind M-O had several of those injuries (Murphy in particular) and questionable offense (other than Minny game) and had a reasonable line (and power rating) against Cincy and Colo before getting blasted. Before the Louisville game, Syracuse had showed no offfense or defense and would have been getting a many more than 9-10 at home against Cincy which Miami was a couple weeks ago, hence assumed higher power rating even before home field and the TD or more. This was all before the M-O goose egg at Colorado which took definition of no offense to another level and the Syr-Louisville game which moved their rating significantly.
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Quote Originally Posted by The Garfather:
That's about what I was thinking.
Nostra, how could that team with injuries and no offense have been laying a TD or more to anyone.
Thanks pags11, back at you.
Gmo, they do, but not tremendously so. Its worth it to go big sometimes.
gar - keep in mind M-O had several of those injuries (Murphy in particular) and questionable offense (other than Minny game) and had a reasonable line (and power rating) against Cincy and Colo before getting blasted. Before the Louisville game, Syracuse had showed no offfense or defense and would have been getting a many more than 9-10 at home against Cincy which Miami was a couple weeks ago, hence assumed higher power rating even before home field and the TD or more. This was all before the M-O goose egg at Colorado which took definition of no offense to another level and the Syr-Louisville game which moved their rating significantly.
Important Injuries Florida Intl Date Pos Player Injury Status 09/27 5:33am WR Jeremy Dickens Groin is expected to miss. Middle Tenn St Date Pos Player Injury Status 09/24 8:07am QB Dwight Dasher None is expected to be the starter. 09/24 8:06am QB Joe Craddock Back missed last game, downgraded to doubtful. 09/23 8:39am DE Erik Walden Undisclosed injured last game, "?". 09/23 8:39am CB Rod Issac Ankle injured last game, "?".
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Important Injuries Florida Intl Date Pos Player Injury Status 09/27 5:33am WR Jeremy Dickens Groin is expected to miss. Middle Tenn St Date Pos Player Injury Status 09/24 8:07am QB Dwight Dasher None is expected to be the starter. 09/24 8:06am QB Joe Craddock Back missed last game, downgraded to doubtful. 09/23 8:39am DE Erik Walden Undisclosed injured last game, "?". 09/23 8:39am CB Rod Issac Ankle injured last game, "?".
Screw you Bob. Buffalo was a great play and now I can't take it. All I can hope for at this point is that Ball State just wrings their fucking necks by like 4 TDs so I don't feel stupid.
Rotation #160 Toledo (+1 1/2) Tend to Agree here.
Rotation #161 Kent State (-2 1/2) Definitely Agree here, but road chalk in the MAC isn't a good plan, with few exceptions.
Rotation #119 Buffalo (+15) Excellent play. I hate him for making it, cause now I cannot.
Rotation #170 Houston (-11) No opinion. There is a lot of support for this side. If anything I will take a second look at the dog due to increased value.
Rotation #178 Rutgers (-16 1/2) Anything
over 17 is totally out-of-hand. The matchup isn't that bad for the
Terps. Taking a look at the dog. Bad spot though for the underdog.
Rotation #186 New Mexico (+5 1/2) No strong opinion yet. This will be the best team they have faced.
Florida International (+11) Very good wager. Made this play myself, but on the ML.
Rotation #200 Kentucky (-22) Too much chalk given the situation, but this would be the side.
Rotation #104 South Florida (+7) I
actually prefer the WV side, but if you are taking the home dog on
national TV with a good defense, then 7 is pretty good. And especially
better than 6.5 which most of the public clowns will get.
Rotation #167 Pittsburgh (+6) I
have no feel for this contest. GL to Bob and everyone else that either
wants to bet on Al Gross or Dave Wanker. Sort of like deciding between
Shame Montgomery and Greg Retardation in the Cuse-MOH game.
Rotation #172 Tulsa (-21) Already on it at 19.5
Last
week I was critical of Bob's recommendations and I ended up being
right. This week I have no actual disagreements other than maybe some
of the value and numbers he is suggesting. I like a couple of
opposing sides, but I can at least understand the perspective he is
putting forth on each of his plays. I project a profitable week.
Something in the 7-4 8-3 range I think. At the very least he better
get FIU and Tulsa right, because I am on those too. LOL
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Screw you Bob. Buffalo was a great play and now I can't take it. All I can hope for at this point is that Ball State just wrings their fucking necks by like 4 TDs so I don't feel stupid.
Rotation #160 Toledo (+1 1/2) Tend to Agree here.
Rotation #161 Kent State (-2 1/2) Definitely Agree here, but road chalk in the MAC isn't a good plan, with few exceptions.
Rotation #119 Buffalo (+15) Excellent play. I hate him for making it, cause now I cannot.
Rotation #170 Houston (-11) No opinion. There is a lot of support for this side. If anything I will take a second look at the dog due to increased value.
Rotation #178 Rutgers (-16 1/2) Anything
over 17 is totally out-of-hand. The matchup isn't that bad for the
Terps. Taking a look at the dog. Bad spot though for the underdog.
Rotation #186 New Mexico (+5 1/2) No strong opinion yet. This will be the best team they have faced.
Florida International (+11) Very good wager. Made this play myself, but on the ML.
Rotation #200 Kentucky (-22) Too much chalk given the situation, but this would be the side.
Rotation #104 South Florida (+7) I
actually prefer the WV side, but if you are taking the home dog on
national TV with a good defense, then 7 is pretty good. And especially
better than 6.5 which most of the public clowns will get.
Rotation #167 Pittsburgh (+6) I
have no feel for this contest. GL to Bob and everyone else that either
wants to bet on Al Gross or Dave Wanker. Sort of like deciding between
Shame Montgomery and Greg Retardation in the Cuse-MOH game.
Rotation #172 Tulsa (-21) Already on it at 19.5
Last
week I was critical of Bob's recommendations and I ended up being
right. This week I have no actual disagreements other than maybe some
of the value and numbers he is suggesting. I like a couple of
opposing sides, but I can at least understand the perspective he is
putting forth on each of his plays. I project a profitable week.
Something in the 7-4 8-3 range I think. At the very least he better
get FIU and Tulsa right, because I am on those too. LOL
1) Michigan St.+7.5 (Strong leaning) I actually like the ML...
2) Florida St. -1hat Buffalo play was great
I would like to know your opinion on these games, I read what you wrote about the Michigan St. game, but can you give me another opinion...GL Man !!! And yes fuck Dr. Bob, that buffalo play was great...
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Garfather:
Whats your opinion on these 2 games:
1) Michigan St.+7.5 (Strong leaning) I actually like the ML...
2) Florida St. -1hat Buffalo play was great
I would like to know your opinion on these games, I read what you wrote about the Michigan St. game, but can you give me another opinion...GL Man !!! And yes fuck Dr. Bob, that buffalo play was great...
I'm going to add ULM, just haven't got too it yet -- maybe they'll give me +500? They say it's smart to take strong run offenses on the road, and this one qualifies. Just hope Lancaster can do enough through the air to keep them honest. Kenny Cattouse listed as ? for Troy. Stat of the day -- ULM converted 20 first downs between the Clemson and TAMU games. That's pretty good. Also coming off the bye to hopefully get their defense in order a little bit.....
Here's the kicker though -- Troy is the #1 general consensus pick at Wagerline.
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I'm going to add ULM, just haven't got too it yet -- maybe they'll give me +500? They say it's smart to take strong run offenses on the road, and this one qualifies. Just hope Lancaster can do enough through the air to keep them honest. Kenny Cattouse listed as ? for Troy. Stat of the day -- ULM converted 20 first downs between the Clemson and TAMU games. That's pretty good. Also coming off the bye to hopefully get their defense in order a little bit.....
Here's the kicker though -- Troy is the #1 general consensus pick at Wagerline.
Here's the kicker though -- Troy is the #1 general consensus pick at Wagerline
Might be a good reason to back ULM, Matador
There used to be a guy on this and another site who claimed to be totally ignorant about football. His system was to fade all plays 60% and over on Wagerline. He had one bad season. Otherwise, he did better than most good cappers. Had a lot of action for his money, as well.
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Here's the kicker though -- Troy is the #1 general consensus pick at Wagerline
Might be a good reason to back ULM, Matador
There used to be a guy on this and another site who claimed to be totally ignorant about football. His system was to fade all plays 60% and over on Wagerline. He had one bad season. Otherwise, he did better than most good cappers. Had a lot of action for his money, as well.
Very slim final card this week. Probably should not play anymore after Memphis shit the bed in the 2h, blowing a 31-6 halftime lead. Record now down to 11-16 (+4.5units) on the yr. Will probably be back to even, or thereabouts after this week.
GT+140
Aub +1040
SDSU+570
Hope I can just go 1-2.
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Very slim final card this week. Probably should not play anymore after Memphis shit the bed in the 2h, blowing a 31-6 halftime lead. Record now down to 11-16 (+4.5units) on the yr. Will probably be back to even, or thereabouts after this week.
ML dogs: Southern Miss +350 - L Air Force +125 UNLV +150 Florida International +400 Akron +475 Temple +200 Colorado St +370 California +216 ECU +430
Spreads: Cincinnati -14 (-110) Ohio State -22.5 (-110) Arkansas St -3.5 (-110) - W BYU -5.5 (+101) Troy -12.5 (-103) Buffalo +16.5 (-110) Louisville -8 (-107) Baylor +16.5 (-101)
nice of memphis to fuck up for me...sucks for you, vols. sorry man...kinda. I know some of these aren't popular around here, and I know I got a shitty number on BYU...but dr bob is insane...he even stated his numbers indicate BYU -7. And then he promptly picked New Mexico. Figure that out.
I think fading Texas A&M on the ML next week is a better plan than this week.
I've been seriously considering North Texas +8000....but I'm concerned that the Green will allow 400 yards rushing...and they won't be able to pass efficiently enough to keep up. I still may very well play the 5TD points tho...heh.
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ML dogs: 7-14, 33.3%, +3.8 units
here's where I am this week...
ML dogs: Southern Miss +350 - L Air Force +125 UNLV +150 Florida International +400 Akron +475 Temple +200 Colorado St +370 California +216 ECU +430
Spreads: Cincinnati -14 (-110) Ohio State -22.5 (-110) Arkansas St -3.5 (-110) - W BYU -5.5 (+101) Troy -12.5 (-103) Buffalo +16.5 (-110) Louisville -8 (-107) Baylor +16.5 (-101)
nice of memphis to fuck up for me...sucks for you, vols. sorry man...kinda. I know some of these aren't popular around here, and I know I got a shitty number on BYU...but dr bob is insane...he even stated his numbers indicate BYU -7. And then he promptly picked New Mexico. Figure that out.
I think fading Texas A&M on the ML next week is a better plan than this week.
I've been seriously considering North Texas +8000....but I'm concerned that the Green will allow 400 yards rushing...and they won't be able to pass efficiently enough to keep up. I still may very well play the 5TD points tho...heh.
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which Miami was a couple weeks ago, hence assumed higher power rating even before home field and the TD or more. This was all before the M-O goose egg at Colorado which took definition of no offense to another level and the Syr-Louisville game which moved their rating significantly. 
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