Underdog Money Lines Week 5 (9/27-9/29)

male, I hope you're correct about 5:1 cause that is about how much I would need to play it.

broadway, I was hoping the books would take the bait on Penn State or at least make a big mistake, but no such luck that line is perfect.  At 140-160 that number is right where it needs to be.

nostra, I am going to look more closely at Akron later tonight.  Can you tell me what you like about it?  I just worry that they can't score against any decent BCS teams, I think their offense is a joke outside of the context of the MAC.

I lean towards ECU too, but I really respect tim's opinion and he is gonna be playing Houston.  I didn't see any of their game against CSU so its entirely possible that they are leaps and bounds better since playing at Oregon and being at home figures to help their young QBs.

Memphis 165 to 160
UNC 700 to 750
Miss St 475 to 450 (Brinkley move)
Temple 210 to 200
Cal 180 to 190
Alabama 110 to 120
Ole Miss 550 to 600 (just now)
UCLA -110 to +105
Illinois 155 to 140 (barely interested to begin with, now not at all)
MSU 230 to 250 (this is the correct move)
UNLV 135 to 145
Baylor 600 to 650
Pitt 230 to 245
NCSU 310 to 315 (be my guest)
Georgia Tech 135 to 125
Maryland 650 to 700
New Mexico 210 to 200
Stanford 550 to 525

Out of  53 games, the firsts 24 hours only saw 18 movements of any sort.  Of those 18, 11 were moved towards the favorite money line thus creating underdog value.  I hope this pattern endures for the duration of the year.  Most moves were small and really the only downward moves were on micro and small dogs as well as some big dogs that I wasn't into anyway.

I had the Houston in the week 1 opener against Oregon and the game was alot closer than the 48-27 final. In the third quarter, with the game tied, Houston threw an INT when they were on the Oregon goal line. Dixon led Oregon downfield, scored a TD and Houston couldn't recover. I mention this because alot of people are high on Oregon, and had Houston scored that TD, they dynamics would've definitely changed. So perhaps this is why some people are thinking highly of Houston.

Houston has been using two QBs Case Keenum and Blake Joseph, both of whom have played well. I think alot of people underestimated Houston initially because of the loss of Kolb, but Art Briles' system is such that any decent QB can come in and run it with efficiency (a la Mike Leach's Texas Tech system).

ECU QB Patrick Pinkney seems to be doing well with what little I have seen of him this year, but he has the potential to light up a relatively weak Houston defense. I don't think we can hold the wretched WVU performance against him too much. WVU would make nearly every CUSA team look bad.

The bottom line is that teams that are too reliant upon potent offenses to offset weak defenses are always good for an upset or two a year. This could be one of those spots for an ECU upset of Houston.

I'm definitely playing the over (assuming it will be 63), but I might take a stab at the ECU ML.

On the other hand after verifying some stuff, only the Mackey injury is new and secondary has some depth, Robinson was shown as backup on early season DC. Think I'll keep Akron on as ML kicker, mainly on the basis of decent defense particularly the run 3.4 LY and ability of WR to make a couple plays. Also the simple yet valid approach of...if Temple can hang until the last play why not Akron.

I could not hold out to watch yet again as value slipped away from obvious plays, so I put in Indiana +370 (Gar's not keen on this one) and CSU +370. Just can't see getting better numbers by waiting on those, considering that Indy opened +13.5 and CSU +13. Too bad money lines don't come up right when the spreads do. Moneyline openings for those games were Indy +380 and CSU +375, so just starting to slip.

solid

And there's the problem.   Akron is near the bottom in ever I-A offensive category -- and they're defense isn't the best -- -not bad -- but not the best.   UConn might be for real.  They're balanced on offense and have a pretty solid defense.  Call me crazy but I could see Akron getting shutout.

I've been thinking a lot about this one the last couple days and really agree with your opinion here. Akron's lack of offense scares the hell out of me.

Just plugged in FIU +400. Number was dropped by most books but WSEX still had it. Not often that WSEX has the best number on a ML.

Didn't want to play this early, but I think some of the good numbers really will come down considerably. My best 3 locked in already with FIU, Indiana, and CSU.

Agreed.

Official Play: Florida International +380

how about some FAU action?

can't believe no one is talking them up at all.

I'm a follower.  I, too, have gone ahead and taken FIU...now let's hope they can score.

 

Yeah, especially since they looked so great at Oklahoma State.

Official Play: Temple +200

That is my "fuck it" play of the week.  Wanted more, but they probably win anyway.

Cliff's Notes Version:

Official Plays (2): Florida International +380 and Temple +200

Prospective Plays (11): Indiana, Buffalo, Cal, SDSU, Colorado State, Toledo, Pitt, Maryland, New Mexico, ULL, and ULM.

Not too many great ones.  Might be a smallish card this week.

So far this week:

1) Tulsa -19.5
2) Florida State -2
3) FIU ML +380
4) Temple +200

Question for you power ratings guys, would Cuse have been a road favorite at MiamiOH this time last week?

And just for the record: if Bob takes ULM, ULL, SDSU, Buffalo, USC, Arizona State, Reno, or Wisconsin I am going to scream bloody murder.

On the other hand I would love for him to take Iowa, Cal, Washington, or MiamiOH.

No...I think I would've had it around Miami OH -3.