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Underdog Money Lines Week 5 (9/27-9/29)

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Posted: #126
Quote Originally Posted by taurus:

Here's the kicker though -- Troy is the #1 general consensus pick at Wagerline
Might be a good reason to back ULM, Matador
There used to be a guy on this and another site who claimed to be totally ignorant about football. His system was to fade all plays 60% and over on Wagerline. He had one bad season. Otherwise, he did better than most good cappers. Had a lot of action for his money, as well.
Sounds like Canuck.
 
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Posted: #127
Joining you guys on Temple ML this week, GL to the gamblers
 
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Posted: #128

Quote Originally Posted by timh:

Sounds like Canuck.

 

You got it, tim.  BTW- I'm taking terps against Rutgers

GL

 
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Posted: #129
Gar - you can get USF +272 at Matchbook right now....

It's not too late
 
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Posted: #130
bump
 
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Posted: #131
I got FIU +10.5, and it has lost value since then, but FIU +300 parlayed with the under 46 still looks like a solid play.
 
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Posted: #132
Quote Originally Posted by GmoNavarro:

 
Garfather:
 
Whats your opinion on these 2 games:
 
1) Michigan St.+7.5 (Strong leaning) I actually like the ML...
 
2) Florida St. -1hat Buffalo play was great
 
I would like to know your opinion on these games, I read what you wrote about the Michigan St. game, but can you give me another opinion...GL Man !!! And yes fuck Dr. Bob, that buffalo play was great...


I'm already on Florida State.   Problem with MSU is lack of playmakers.  And if you don't have play makers then you need to sustain drives with average athletes.  And Wisconsin is not the type of team you want to try to grind against.  They are the king of the grinders.  I think its a nice spot for Wiscy coming off the home win, and now getting another crack at a conference win.  MSU won at ND, but they didn't impress me.  They are too one-dimensional.
 
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Posted: #133
I just hopped on
 
UNC +18.5 110 to win 100
UNC ML   129 to win 1117
 
VA tech just doesnt seem like they should be a team to be afraid of offensively and UNC has shown some life on defense as well from the games I have seen. Tyrod Taylor is a true frosh and hasnt shown much. Tech has been losing a game where they are favored pretty high the past few years, Check GA Tech last year when they won SU in blacksburg.
 
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Posted: #134
Garfather:

I agree, pretty slim pickings this week.  I was on USF tonight and feel fortunate to be ahead in the ML Dog race for this weekend.  It actually may stop there for me, but I may take a shot or two tomorrow and wanted an opinion.  Here is what I'm considering:

Short Dogs:  Illinois, Ohio, GaTech, Wazzu
Long Shots:  Akron, Auburn, Baylor, Maryland
More My Style: Indiana, New Mexico, Cal, FIU

I already have an Oregon ticket but if Cal ML gets out of hand I may have to take a look...FIU value is shot so I think I missed my shot there...I have a NM +5.5 ticket already and may be content with it and that value got Bob'd to boot...I am leaning strongly at taking a shot with Auburn

how would you recommend paring this list down to two or maybe three picks?


 
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Posted: #135
Lineguesser,
 
Slim pickings?  It's still early but more than 2 dozen dogs are winning SU each week.  I think they are out there for the taking, its just a matter of finding them.  Some we should see coming, others need to be taken just based on the odds.  I took 10 this week.  We'll see how it works out.
 
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Posted: #136
thanks jp... I know they are there for the taking, but they just aren't "jumping out" at me this week like they usually do, that's why I'm having a hard time with it this week

I usually like to have around 4-5 ML dogs usually in the 4 to 9 point spread range as well as one "long shot"
 
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Posted: #137
Quote Originally Posted by The Garfather:

Screw you Bob.  Buffalo was a great play and now I can't take it.  All I can hope for at this point is that Ball State just wrings their fucking necks by like 4 TDs so I don't feel stupid.

Rotation #160 Toledo (+1 1/2) Tend to Agree here.

Rotation #161 Kent State (-2 1/2) Definitely Agree here, but road chalk in the MAC isn't a good plan, with few exceptions.

Rotation #119 Buffalo (+15) Excellent play.  I hate him for making it, cause now I cannot.

Rotation #170 Houston (-11) No opinion.  There is a lot of support for this side.  If anything I will take a second look at the dog due to increased value.

Rotation #178 Rutgers (-16 1/2) Anything over 17 is totally out-of-hand.  The matchup isn't that bad for the Terps.  Taking a look at the dog.  Bad spot though for the underdog.

Rotation #186 New Mexico (+5 1/2) No strong opinion yet.  This will be the best team they have faced.

Florida International (+11) Very good wager.  Made this play myself, but on the ML.

Rotation #200 Kentucky (-22) Too much chalk given the situation, but this would be the side.

Rotation #104 South Florida (+7) I actually prefer the WV side, but if you are taking the home dog on national TV with a good defense, then 7 is pretty good.  And especially better than 6.5 which most of the public clowns will get.

Rotation #167 Pittsburgh (+6) I have no feel for this contest.  GL to Bob and everyone else that either wants to bet on Al Gross or Dave Wanker.  Sort of like deciding between Shame Montgomery and Greg Retardation in the Cuse-MOH game.

Rotation #172 Tulsa (-21) Already on it at 19.5

Last week I was critical of Bob's recommendations and I ended up being right.  This week I have no actual disagreements other than maybe some of the value and numbers he is suggesting.  I like a couple of opposing  sides, but I can at least understand the perspective he is putting forth on each of his plays.  I project a profitable week.  Something in the 7-4 8-3 range I think.  At the very least he better get FIU and Tulsa right, because I am on those too.  LOL

Love your angles on Dr. Bomb's lines... hope i see more of them. GL this weekend. 

 
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Posted: #138
One dozen is a good amount of dogs coming in, two dozen would give me a wet dream.  That almost never, if ever, happens.

I have Temple +200, FIU +380, and just added two official plays:

San Diego State +540

UL-Monroe +430

Cliff's Notes Version:

Official Plays (4): SDSU +540, ULM +430, Florida International +380 and Temple +200

Prospective Plays (4): Indiana, Colorado State, East Carolina, and Maryland.

After looking back at the plays I have, and those that I am still considering...something occurred to me.  They're all huge fuckin juicy dogs.  Nothing small even caught my eye this week.  Why is it they are all big dogs?  Probably because between the four I have played they only have one win and its not a 1A win.  That right there my friends is both the curse and the blessing of this approach.  Its all or nothing.  I am betting that the books don't realize how tight some of these Sun Belt games will be.  There are a lot of unknowns with a lot of these teams still and some of value being offered seems very presumptuous on the part of the offshores.

So far this week:

1) Tulsa -19.5
2) Florida State -2
3) FIU ML +380
4) Temple +200
5) USC -20.5
6) SDSU ML +540
7) UL-Monroe ML +430

Trolling for about 1 or 2 more money lines, one or two more dogs/favorites on the spread, and maybe a total.
 
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Posted: #139
like them
 
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Posted: #140
Nice card as usual - cannot disagree with most, if SDSU wins thoughI'll save myself the handicapping and just go with your ML the rest of the year
 
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Posted: #141
Good luck this week Garfather and Matador.

UL-Monroe, wasn't really on my radar screen this week, but I think I"m going to coattail you guys on it.  Hell, it's the Sun Belt.  Actually I remember last year in week 5 Sun Belt action, FAU beat UL-Monroe as a +500 dog and Ark St beat FIU as a +300 or so dog.  Love that Sun Belt action.
 
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Posted: #142
I'm on Temple as well and these turnoves and penalties are making me sick to my fucking stomach. Talk about shooting yourself in the foot and being undisciplined. Fucking Owls
 
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Posted: #143
Temple allows like 3 or 4 non-offensive touchdowns.  FIU sucks, ULM had their chances but also allowed a non-offensive TD.

but look at who I passed on: Indy win, ECU looking like a win, and MD +925

Probably high time for me to take a little break from all this.
 
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Posted: #144
stick with it gar... the dogs were out in full force today, i think that's a good sign that it's time to open your plays up a little bit... i'd love to see you playing 6-10 plays a week from now on, there's great money to be made out there for the rest of the year as you know better than i do.

Anyways- good luck to you, hope you are sticking around.
 
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Posted: #145
I'm not quitting handicapping.  But I think I am going to just post my plays in the thread and that will be all, no more chatter and no more breaking down the card.  The amount of time this (my thread and reading covers in general) takes is adversely effecting my handicapping.  I will still post plays, but just cannot spend so much time here at the forum.
 
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Posted: #146
Agreed. I am finding myself spending too much time reading the opinions of people here who really don't know shit (nobody in this thread...you know the type though).

I think you/I and a lot of others around here would be better served to not read anything on this board and go off just your own instincts.

Next week....
 
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Posted: #147
Gar you are a solid capper. You will get back on track once you clear your head and get back to the basics. Look forward to seeing your thread next week.
 
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Posted: #148
Quote Originally Posted by GAM:

Agreed. I am finding myself spending too much time reading the opinions of people here who really don't know shit (nobody in this thread...you know the type though).

I think you/I and a lot of others around here would be better served to not read anything on this board and go off just your own instincts.

Next week....

This was a very strange week...a ton of upsets yet I think a lot of us dog guys got killed.  Most of the top 25 favorites did horrible while the other favorites killed it this week...I wouldn't be surprised if non-ranked DD favorites hit over 70% this week...

 
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Posted: #149
I know exactly how you felt last night.... It will turn around bro and I'm thinking the same maybe spending less time on here would be better for myself.
 
I start reading to many opinions and confuse myself... Stuck with my gut today on the plays I liked most and won.
 
The dogs are coming out and I know you will find them
 
 
 
 
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Posted: #150
[Quote: Originally Posted by The Garfather] I'm not quitting handicapping.  But I think I am going to just post my plays in the thread and that will be all, no more chatter and no more breaking down the card.  The amount of time this (my thread and reading covers in general) takes is adversely effecting my handicapping.  I will still post plays, but just cannot spend so much time here at the forum.

 

Ya think?

 

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