Underdog Money Lines Week 5 (9/27-9/29)

Too many opinions can muddy the waters, and the time spent reading them can detract from more useful research.  I think coming here for line discussion and maybe some weather or injury updates is the best use of this forum.  Going forward, I will primarily be in here on Sunday afternoons and evenings I think.

 

My god. you're talking about the 3 worst teams in college football, what did you expect? Try good teams like Colorado, KSt, Auburn, who actually paid a hell of alot more.

As an example, if I had never seen Dr. Bob's plays I would have been on Buffalo (-100), Maryland (+925), and maybe just maybe ECU (+450).  That is not Dr. Bob's fault - especially since I agreed with the bulk of his recommendations this week, but the fact remains if I hadn't come to this forum and read a bunch of other silly threads that I had no business reading I wouldn't have been swayed off of some plays I really liked.

Now its true, that if I were getting better results, I probably wouldn't feel this way, but I think spending more time here then doing more capping is leading to some of those results.

i'm so happy tsw showed up to give his 2 cents.   i can sleep now

I feel like responding to this, but why bother, you won't understand anyway.  You are just the type of inferior opinion I am trying to get away from, and even having read your post is me already breaking my own word of being here too much.  I'm going to start on tomorrow's numbers.  Good night loser.

 

this from the horse's ass called Molsen, himself.

and garftather, inferior to you, i think not, i cleaned up today taking dogs unlike your sorry ass bitch.

tsw, why so bitter if you "cleaned up" today?  

My take is the problem is primarily that every Saturday some completely wild and unpredictable shit goes down and no matter how well you prepare some of it you just can't see coming. Traditionally ML dog bettors have done well fading "vulnerable" teams. We look for teams that have demonstrated deficiencies that have yet to be fully exploited. So when I look at the list of dogs that won outright today, I'm not terribly surprised that I wasn't able to pick more of them out. Disregard underdogs of less than +150, and here's what's left:

USF, Indiana, Colorado, Maryland, Cal, ECU, Auburn, Kansas St.

Well, to my view at least, WVU, Rutgers, Oklahoma, Oregon, or Florida didn't look the least bit vulnerable. I might even add Texas to that list, though they're not exactly a vintage Texas team, I didn't really imagine the likes of KSU coming in and knocking them off, esp. not getting any better value than 5 to 1. So that leaves Indiana and ECU as what I would call "typical" value plays based on what has worked best in the past. Out of all the other possible similar "value" plays, who could be expected to pick those two out? What distinguished them from about 20 other possibilities that didn't even come close?

I can only speak for myself, but personally I'm not too upset with myself for only going 1-4 with the ML this week. I did what I typically do and what has been profitable in the past. Shit, whenever I have tried to pick spots where really good teams are going to falter, I haven't done well. So I finally cure myself of that, and we have an aberrant week where half the top teams go down. Was that predictable? Maybe if your style is to play good teams whenever you get value with them (which means when they're playing very good teams) then you did well. You should have, because this week broke down well for the kind of bettor that is looking for that type of spot. But for a player like myself, the dogs did very poorly indeed, and I should feel quite fortunate to have nearly broke even.

Not to say you're the same as me Gar, but in the past we've both done well playing one bad MAC or Sun Belt team against another, or with third tier teams against second tier teams in BCS conference games. I think it makes sense to keep looking for the same angles. I also think that other than week 3 as a class those kinds of plays have fared very poorly, and most of that is just inherent randomness. The weeks will come where one out of three of those games is hitting, and I'll be there looking to hit one out of every two of the ones I choose. Not sure anything has really changed, just takes a little faith and patience.

Seems as I was typing, you guys are making my point. tsw apparently is someone with a different philosophy about how to pick underdogs. Well, today was a good day for anybody with that kind of approach. One week does not make a season however. What was Temple last year when you hit with them vs BGSU, Gar?

just takes a little faith and patience.

And research, which I am guilty of slacking on through the first month.  Time to ramp it up.

Molsen, leave him alone, he doesn't win much so getting a profitable day is a big deal to some of these 18 year olds. lol

tsw, I'm not sure what to make of you.  If you are being a pain in the ass or not, but I'm tired and going to bed and tomorrow, you and I and everybody else will have a fresh start.

I will start getting in on this topic every week. The system that I use primarily plays underdogs. I figured out that the last two years with the underdog plays, the dogs have won straight up (ML) about 43% of the time.

This week's dogs that also hit the ML:

K-State (ML hit)
Maryland (ML hit)
Georgia Tech (ML hit)

That is 3 dogs out of the 7 that I played this week. And the Maryland ML turned out to be HUGE. The K-State ML had to be around +400 or so....maybe more.

friends?   that's a good one.  i know you're some overweight loser who sits at home and beats himself off every night.   you're a person, tsw.   i bet you got a nice pair of bologne tits too.  good night person

I agree with the regulars, Garfather... this was just a weird week.  How many times does half of the Top 10 shit the bed? 

I hit my Indiana ML play (my one big cash this week), but I don't think anybody could have predicted MD, USF, Auburn, Colorado, and KSU all hitting. I'm usually a big dog better, too, but I "only" went 6-4-1 this week, and all my money was made in the Indy game.  (And my own personal favorite pick of the week was Ole Miss +14.5, but I didn't play it because I don't bet against my own team.  That would have been the big loser for me.)

I completely agree with you, too, Garfarther, about not putting too much stock into all the crap being tossed about on the boards, esp. when it comes to making your own decisions about games to bet. You can get some good information sometimes... but more often than not, it's just a bunch of people running off at the mouth.

gl next week 

Nostradamus --

Ain't that a bitch? Total of 24 first downs in that FIU/MTSU game and it goes over.......