Underdog Money Lines Week 1 (8/30-9/3)

Saw on another site that Tony Temple hurt his knee.  If it is serious that line will be a mover and will probably kill any and all value in the Illini.

LaMarcus Coker is gonna miss some games in all likelihood so there goes TU's homerun threat.  Any limited notions I had of taking them have basically been erased.  I just think they are walking into the lion's den in that game.

In other pertinent injury-related news, Tennial might be out for Tulsa for quite some time which would be enough for me to give ULM a second look.  Whether or not it would put me on them is doubtful and remains to be seen, but that is a major weapon going down for Tulsa and if there is one thing the Warhawks can do, its fighting fire with fire.  They might just try to outscore them and let the defense take their lumps.  Weatherbie is a good coach and Graham is no slouch himself as we have seen.  That is an interesting chess match.  Tennial's absence would make Tulsa's transition to the new passing offense much less credible as the opponent will go nickel or dime everytime.  Adams is alright, but he is no Tennial.

Lines are already reacting, Tennessee now getting 5.5, ULM only getting 6, and now Pitt only giving 20 with news of QB issues.

I know this is CFB, but one thing I always made sure to keep an eye on in CBB was big-conference schools traveling to the dangerous mid-majors.  It was always such a bad situation for the big school, because the mid-major wanted nothing more than to whip their ass.  I think in a way, that situation applies here.  Add that to the fact BYU will want to avenge last year's close loss, and I think you have a no-play, atleast on the ML.  It's just hard for me to see this Arizona team walking into Provo and beating a team who they snuck by at home last year.  Had that game been played later in the year, I think we all know what would've gone down.

But WHY do they need to win this game?  As you mentioned, it appears everyone but Vegas expects them to win this game - what do they have to prove from beating a MWC team who they beat last year?  It seems like it's everything to lose for Arizona, considering they are the Pac 10 school.

The recent history of Memphis-Ole Miss suggests that the dog in that series is live, not only ATS but also SU.  The reason for that is that the dog is rarely a big one as not much separates these two squads.  Depending on value I may take a second look at the Tigers.  I know this much, I'm not laying it on the road.

I noticed this as well, we should see alot more of that in the weeks to come

Let me guess Wahoo, that caterpillar on the left is UVA and the caterpillar on the right is Wyoming?

you know Gar, I try to stay away from UVA games, but the Cavs are going to control the line of scrimmage vs. Wyoming, my feeling is someone who thinks their sharp will bring that line down to 3 closer to gametime and I can go in for the kill, if the line doesn't move down then I'm not sure what I will do, I just don't see Wyoming being able to win the game though, the Pokes only return 5 starters on defense

Being that UVA has no receivers with experience, now is when you would love to see them use Sewell in some sort of a Pat White approach, where you spread em out and run as opposed to the spread em out and throw that people normally associate with the term "spread offense".

Nice to see you UP2.  The thing with Baylor is that they will most likely be sorry on both sides of the ball.  TCU will not have a dynamic offense and won't run away and hide in this game, so I hear you loud and clear about possibly taking the points.  But the problem comes when Baylor tries to score and finds it tough to even get a first down.

Sometimes in the ML dog approach I will back a team with a pitiful offense and a really good defense because the thinking is that even if they don't put up a lot of points they should still be in the game due to their defense.  This was exactly the case two years ago when I cashed Georgia Tech +940 @ Miami.  I knew that even though Ball wouldn't run them up and down the field all day long they would still be right there at the end because the Jackets defense wasn't going to give up much to Kyle Wrong and Co.

And other times I will back a team with a really fine offense and no defense, simply because I think they can fight fire with fire and come away with a victory.  One of those "last team with the ball wins" sorts of things.  Like Ball State at WMU two years ago that was high-scoring BEFORE going into 5OT.

Don't get me wrong, I would love to back a team with a very nice offense AND defense, but teams like that aren't very often the underdog and its even more rare that they are big dogs of any value.  So more often than not I will bet a team with a strength and a weakness and hope that the edge of their strength is great enough to pull them through that particular match-up.  As it applies to this case, I don't think Baylor has anything to offer at all, on either side.  And if I am gonna take a stab on calling for a team to win outright, I really need for them to at least be good at something.

Does that make any sense?

cj, the Cliff's Notes version is that I am not taking BYU at all.  And I am not taking the over either.  Lean is to UA and under, but its just a lean for now.

I really am having difficulty seeing BYU applying pressure to Willie Tuitama.  The 3-4 is not set up for that.  The 3-4 is designed to do different things with your linebackers in terms of blitzing and coverage, and while you can send them on weird blitzes like the Steelers do, they are starting a few yards off the line and are unable to get immediate pressure.  More delayed blitzes and stuff like that.  And while I am of the opinion that Willie T is over-rated, I am also of the opinion that given time and enough targets (and he figures to get both of those things this season) he will be able to do some damage.  Third year is usually the best for coaches, teams, and individuals for a variety of reasons.  They come on the scene the first year and nobody knows whats coming be it good or bad, then the opponents get a look and make adjustments the second year which is why sophomore slumps happen, and the third years things start to settle in as personnel and systems begin to reach their max potential.  This will be his best year by far, no doubt in my mind.  I think the running game will be fine.  I don't devalue skill positions because they do matter as that is where your "difference makers" are, but the fact is that serviceable running backs are a dime-a-dozen compared to a good offensive line unit.  So the fact that Henry is gone isn't nearly as big of a negative as 4 out of 5 back on the OL is a positive.  I don't see the running game dropping off very much if at all.

I love Arizona's defensive line and actually have something of a man-crush on Louis Holmes.  He was double-teamed for good stretches of the second half of the season which is why he didn't get a double-digit sack total.  I would be a little bit surprised if the Cougars try to take him one-on-one. 12 of 14 top tacklers are back and the linebackers are at the top where they ought to be, not the FS which is always a bad sign.  Don't know much about Fontenot, but everytime I see Cason he is on an island and it rarely seems to matter.  He will shut down the top BYU man, whoever that ends up being.

For their part, BYU is pretty strong at home and tough/experienced in all the right areas according to the type of analysis I do.  The OL and DL are both of a good size and experience level.  I worry - at least in the early part of the year - about their ability to move the ball down the field against a pretty respectable non-conference slate.  Both UA and fUCLA are gritty and tough in the front seven, and I actually think both teams will employ 8 in the box against them.  By the end of the year w/ a season of experience under their belts this could be a machine, but nothing about their offense at this juncture says "sustained drive", at least to me, which is a real problem in light of my next observation...

BYU is slow.  That has been true for several years.  Not everyone on the squad is Curtis Brown.  The problem (amongst their many virtues) with the mature disciplined Mormon kids, is that they don't have many fast-twitch muscles.  Simply put.  God gave them a genetic trade-off - brains for speed.

Defensively, I think they will be alright and that is why I am somewhat apprehensive about taking the Cats is that points on the scoreboard could be at a relative premium in this contest.  They lose a couple of the top tacklers, but that front seven is senior-laden and stout.  UA might be able to pass.  Nay, that isn't strong enough language - they should be able to pass and if they want to win they must be able to pass.

When you look at this game in terms of a ML underdog standpoint its really pretty fascinating.  This is the shit I just eat up.  I am not a trend bettor, but stats like this are straight crack because they don't come around all that often and so I free-base and mainline them.  Only once in the last three years (NM last November) did the points come into play in a BYU home game.  In lay terms, the underdog doesn't need any help.  Either they are going to win the game outright or get fucked up really badly.  Let me say that again once more just for the record and then I will be quiet, apart from giving 27 to the Lobos last year (and only winning by 25) the favorite either covered the number or lost outright in every single affair in Provo since the 2003 season.

Arizona straight up, or nothing, as far as TheGarfather is concerned.

Those 5.5 might work out well at this looks like a lower-scoring game, but I'm not prepared to go against recent history.  For me it will be ml or nata.

GL on your wager.