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Legend
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Posted: #1

Rarely would I post 9 days before a  but i believe this is the best line im going to get as game time approaches...

#2 INDY versus #5 MIAMI on the defensive side

#3 INDY versus #30 MIAMI on the offensive side

SOS is #1 INDY versus #5 MIAMI....

Early indications were INDY -4 to -4/ .

Makes sense as Power Rankings have this as a INDY (-8.3) vs MIAMI subtract the HFA as game is in Miamis back yard..

Teams playing in home state are 5-2 straight up in Title game...

MIAMI is 2-0 ATS this year as a lined dog and 3-0 ATS since 2023 as a HOME DOG..cool

INDY is 7-5 this year as a favorite of 7 or more and 2-2 ATS as a road fave.

Those are the analytical stats I've looked at...

I dont care ABOUT THE SHARPS...

I dont care ABOUT THE SQUARES...

I dont care about WHERE THE MONEY IS GOING....

Some newbies think what they read is 100% legit....

There ARE SHARPS on both sides of the equation....

There are SQUARES on both sides of the equation.....

Everybody is a wise guy today....just ask them!bigsmile

Each casino compiles their own records...

Its meaningless to cap a game on that...

Why do I say this?

I USED TO BOOK for years listening to all the know it alls give their interpretation of this stuff....an_light

NCAAF is all about QB play and the trenches.

Carson Beck is ELITE and NFL top pick eventually...

Giving him 7 atbhome with the way that Miami defence has been.playing is the way I have to go based on principle..

INDY wins the title i hope but thev OVER REACTION is what im betting

MIAMI(+7/) vs INDY

FG Play

Bol guys

peace_5

 

 

 
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Posted: #2

Good luck Camby.  an_cheers

 
MVP
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Posted: #3

BOL camby clover 

 
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Posted: #4

@camby700

 Great stuff - BOL bud

 
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Posted: #5

I think you overestimate Beck...

I am an Indiana Homer, but I like to make money...The only thing that gives me pause about backing IU -7.5 is the:

1) Irrational exuberance by the market for IU after beating Ohio State, Alabama and Oregon is succession...

2) Recent common opponent Ohio State - IU beat them by 3 in early December and Miami beat them by 10...Granted there was a 14 point turnaround with the 80 yard Pick 6 early by Miami...that would have made the game a lot closer...

My gut tells me that Miami's quasi home field is already factored in the line...and that IU should be able to win and cover with a final score on the prima facie low side of Indiana 28 Miami 17...But, I don't bet with my gut...I need to analyze more angles...For me, it will be either IU - the chalk or pass...

Feel free to comments if you concur or disagree with my take...peace_5

 

LonghornHoosier
 
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Posted: #6

Quote Originally Posted by LonghornHoosier:

I think you overestimate Beck... I am an Indiana Homer, but I like to make money...The only thing that gives me pause about backing IU -7.5 is the: 1) Irrational exuberance by the market for IU after beating Ohio State, Alabama and Oregon is succession... 2) Recent common opponent Ohio State - IU beat them by 3 in early December and Miami beat them by 10...Granted there was a 14 point turnaround with the 80 yard Pick 6 early by Miami...that would have made the game a lot closer... My gut tells me that Miami's quasi home field is already factored in the line...and that IU should be able to win and cover with a final score on the prima facie low side of Indiana 28 Miami 17...But, I don't bet with my gut...I need to analyze more angles...For me, it will be either IU - the chalk or pass... Feel free to comments if you concur or disagree with my take...

Always a pleasure my friend...

You're respectful 

SOLID

Yes...others have told me my love affair with Beck is misplaced...

Just something I saw in him in those final 2 drives versus OLE MISS..

I had OLE MISS....

Indy is winning it all...

No doubt about that in my mind....

I just feel the market is exaggerated the spread by 3....

In a game of this magnitude...

AND PLAYING AT HOME....

Ive got to back the home QB who's on fire.

Mendoza is awesome and he'll be awesome enough to win by 2 to 5 points otherwise 19th

Bol as always brother

God Bless

peace_5

 
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Posted: #7

Should have waited Camby.....they are 8.5 now!an_speechless

 
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Posted: #8

IMHO, it goes to +9 to +9.5 before kick off.

 
Legend
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Posted: #9

Quote Originally Posted by Cooler999:

Should have waited Camby.....they are 8.5 now!

Im seeing 8/ now ...yes

Wow 

Bol bruh

 
Captain
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Posted: #10

clover

Embrace the Grind
 
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Posted: #11

 I know Miami is playing at home so to speak but since it's the national championship game isn't it different in that Indiana is allotted 50% of tickets or close? 

 
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Posted: #12

@haymo

 I love Miami, and the home factor for me isn't the crowd, but the Cane's not having to take another trip to the other side of the Mississippi River. The way they're banged up, that is huge!

 

 
Legend
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Posted: #13

Quote Originally Posted by haymo:

I know Miami is playing at home so to speak but since it's the national championship game isn't it different in that Indiana is allotted 50% of tickets or close?

Agreed and good point bro...

I like Miami's familiarity with surroundings and my whole feel here is the 4 to 4/ point favorite position that Indy started out with prior to blowout...

I like Indy to win it but I really feel the excellent defensive home team will keep it close

Bol my friend

peace_5

 
Legend
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Posted: #14

You'll probably see 9.5 next monday.....Indiana teasers with NFL on Saturday/Sunday gonna be pretty massive.....

 

GL sir an_cheers

 
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Posted: #15

@haymo

 lol.  Playing at home so to speak? No, it’s a fucking home game lol.  

 
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Posted: #16

@camby700

 Yeah ok... We all were bookies at one time. You would have figured that with the number jumping to 8 that ....oh I forgot you were a bookie so you know.. Take Indiana and buy the point since you over thought this process.

 
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Posted: #17

peace_5

 
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Posted: #18

Quote Originally Posted by ocplay:

@camby700  Yeah ok... We all were bookies at one time. You would have figured that with the number jumping to 8 that ....oh I forgot you were a bookie so you know.. Take Indiana and buy the point since you over thought this process.

appreciate the love bro

Bol

 
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Posted: #19

an_cheers

 
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Posted: #20

bol tonight 

 
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Posted: #21

Good stuff. Agree,line may b rich. Expecting IN W too. Have em -1.5 w Sea. Feel much better at this price. GL. Lot of great games last few days.

 
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Posted: #22

goodpost #13 GL clover I like your style mah man @camby700 peace_5

 

What do you call an Eternal Optimist? An accordion player with a beeper!
 
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Posted: #23

an_worshipMIAMI 

bigsmile

 
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Posted: #24

peace_5

 
 
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Posted: #25

@camby700an_clap

 

What do you call an Eternal Optimist? An accordion player with a beeper!
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