• Forums
  • Best Betting Sites
  • Sportsbook Promos
  • Best Sports Betting Apps
  • NFL Betting Forum
  • NBA Betting Forum
  • MLB Betting Forum
  • NHL Betting Forum
  • NCAAF Betting Forum
  • NCAAB Betting Forum
  • Soccer Betting Forum
  • Tennis Betting Forum
  • General Discussion
  • Help Forum
  • Guidelines
  • FAQ
  • Forum Updates
    Covers Logo
    Covers App
    Faster picks. Smarter bets.
    All in the NEW Covers App
    Download on the App Store Download on the Google Play Store
    • Sports
      • NFL
        • Back
        • NFL
        • NFL Home
        • Scores & Matchups
        • Prop Projections
        • NFL Picks
        • Weather
        • Injuries
      • NCAAF
        • Back
        • NCAAF
        • NCAAF Home
        • Scores & Matchups
        • Prop Projections
        • NCAAF Picks
        • Weather
        • Injuries
      • NBA
        • Back
        • NBA
        • NBA Home
        • Scores & Matchups
        • Prop Projections
        • NBA Picks
        • Injuries
      • NCAAB
        • Back
        • NCAAB
        • NCAAB Home
        • Scores & Matchups
        • NCAAB Picks
        • Injuries
      • MLB
        • Back
        • MLB
        • MLB Home
        • Scores & Matchups
        • Prop Projections
        • MLB Picks
        • Weather
        • Injuries
      • NHL
        • Back
        • NHL
        • NHL Home
        • Scores & Matchups
        • Prop Projections
        • NHL Picks
        • Injuries
      • Soccer
      • UFC
      • WNBA
        • Back
        • WNBA
        • WNBA Home
        • Scores & Matchups
        • WNBA Picks
        • Injuries
      • CFL
        • Back
        • CFL
        • CFL Home
        • Scores & Matchups
        • CFL Picks
      • Golf
        • Back
        • Golf
        • Golf Home
        • Golf Odds
        • Masters Odds
        • PGA Championship Odds
        • US Open Odds
        • British Open Odds
        • Ryder Cup Odds
        • Golf Picks
    • Odds
      • All Odds
      • NFL
      • NCAAF
      • NBA
      • NCAAB
      • MLB
      • NHL
      • Golf
      • Soccer Odds
        • Back
        • Soccer Odds
        • MLS Odds
        • Champions League Odds
        • Premier League Odds
      • UFC
      • WNBA
      • CFL
      • Election Odds
      • Futures
        • Back
        • Futures
        • NFL
        • NBA
        • MLB
        • NHL
        • NCAAB
        • NCAAF
      • Sports Odds History
    • Picks
      • All Picks
      • NFL
      • NBA
      • NHL
      • MLB
      • NCAAF
      • NCAAB
      • Golf
      • WNBA
      • CFL
      • User Picks
      • Team User Picks
      • Consensus Picks
        • Back
        • Consensus Picks
        • All Consensus Picks
        • NFL
        • NBA
        • NHL
        • MLB
        • NCAAF
        • NCAAB
        • CFL
        • WNBA
        • Consensus FAQ
        • Public Money
    • Prop Projections
      • NFL
      • NBA
      • MLB
      • NHL
    • Betting
      • US Betting Sites
      • Canada Betting Sites
      • Sportsbook Reviews
      • States
        • Back
        • States
        • US Legal Tracker
        • Revenue Tracker
        • Arizona
        • Arkansas
        • California
        • Colorado
        • Connecticut
        • DC
        • Florida
        • Georgia
        • Illinois
        • Indiana
        • Iowa
        • Kansas
        • Kentucky
        • Louisiana
        • Maine
        • Maryland
        • Massachusetts
        • Michigan
        • Mississippi
        • Missouri
        • Nevada
        • New Hampshire
        • New Jersey
        • New York
        • North Carolina
        • Ohio
        • Oregon
        • Pennsylvania
        • Tennessee
        • Texas
        • Vermont
        • Virginia
        • West Virginia
        • Wyoming
      • Provinces
        • Back
        • Provinces
        • Alberta
        • British Columbia
        • Manitoba
        • New Brunswick
        • Newfoundland and Labrador
        • Northwest Territories
        • Nova Scotia
        • Nunavut
        • Ontario
        • Prince Edward Island
        • Quebec (English)
        • Quebec (francais)
        • Saskatchewan
        • Yukon
      • By Sport
        • Back
        • By Sport
        • Baseball
        • Basketball
        • Boxing
        • College Football
        • F1
        • Football
        • Super Bowl
        • Golf
        • Hockey
        • Horse Racing
        • March Madness
        • Soccer
        • UFC
        • World Cup
      • Betting Apps
        • Back
        • Betting Apps
        • Best Sports Betting Apps USA
        • Ontario Sports Betting Apps
      • Rest of World
        • Back
        • Rest of World
        • UK Betting Offers
          • Back
          • UK Betting Offers
          • UK Betting Sites
          • bet365 Bonus Code UK
          • 888Sport Promo Code UK
          • William Hill Sign up Offer
          • Betway Sign up Offer
          • BetVictor Bonus Code UK
      • Betting Guides
        • Back
        • Betting Guides
        • All Guides
        • Glossary
        • Betting Calculators
          • Back
          • Betting Calculators
          • Odds Converter
          • Parlay Calculator
        • Futures Betting Guide
        • Moneyline Betting Guide
        • Over/Under Betting Guide
        • Parlay Betting Guide
        • Point Spread Betting Guide
        • Prop Betting Guide
        • Sports Betting Guides
          • Back
          • Sports Betting Guides
          • How To Bet On Sports Guide
          • NFL Betting Guide
          • NHL Betting Guide
          • NBA Betting Guide
          • MLB Betting Guide
          • NCAAB Betting Guide
          • NCAAF Betting Guide
          • Golf Betting Guide
          • Tennis Betting Guide
        • Teaser Betting Guide
      • Betting News
        • Back
        • Betting News
        • All News
        • Industry News
        • Podcasts
        • Covers Videos
        • Covers Writers
        • Offers & Boosts
    • Promos
      • Sportsbook Promos
      • Canada Sportsbook Promos
      • Bonuses By Sportsbook
        • Back
        • Bonuses By Sportsbook
        • bet365 Bonus Code
        • BET99 Promo Code
        • BetMGM Bonus Code
        • BetRivers Bonus Code
        • Caesars Sportsbook Promo
        • DraftKings Promo Code
        • Fanatics Sportsbook Promo
        • FanDuel Promo Code
        • Hard Rock Bet Promo Code
        • Sports Interaction Promo
        • Stake Promo Code
        • theScore Bet Promo Code
        • TonyBet Promo Code
      • Bonuses By Region
        • Back
        • Bonuses By Region
        • Arkansas Promos
        • Arizona Promos
        • Colorado Promos
        • Connecticut Promos
        • DC Promos
        • Illinois Promos
        • Indiana Promos
        • Iowa Promos
        • Kansas Promos
        • Kentucky Promos
        • Louisiana Promos
        • Maine Promos
        • Maryland Promos
        • Massachusetts Promos
        • Michigan Promos
        • Missouri Promos
        • New Jersey Promos
        • New York Promos
        • North Carolina Promos
        • Ohio Promos
        • Pennsylvania Promos
        • Tennessee Promos
        • Vermont Promos
        • Virginia Promos
        • West Virginia Promos
        • Wyoming Promos
    • Forum & Contests
      • All Forums
      • NFL Betting Forum
      • MLB Betting Forum
      • NCAAB Betting Forum
      • NCAAF Betting Forum
      • NBA Betting Forum
      • NHL Betting Forum
      • Soccer Betting Forum
      • Contests
        • Back
        • Contests
        • Contests Home
        • Streak Survivor
        • King of Covers
        • My Contests
    • Casino
      • Sweepstakes Casino
        • Back
        • Sweepstakes Casino
        • Sweepstakes Casino
        • Sweepstakes No-Deposit Bonuses
        • Sweepstakes Promos
          • Back
          • Sweepstakes Promos
          • Card Crush
          • Casino.click
          • Chanced Casino
          • Crown Coins Casino
          • FreeSpin Casino
          • LoneStar
          • McLuck
          • Mega Bonanza Casino
          • PlayFame
          • Pulsz
          • Stake.us
      • US Casinos
        • Back
        • US Casinos
        • US Online Casinos
        • US Online Casino Bonuses
        • Casino Promos
          • Back
          • Casino Promos
          • bet365 Casino Promo Code
          • BetRivers Casino Promo
          • Borgata Casino Bonus Code
          • Caesars Casino Bonus Code
          • DraftKings Casino Promo
          • Fanatics Casino Promo
          • FanDuel Casino Promo Code
          • Golden Nugget Casino Promo
          • Hard Rock Bet Casino Promo
          • Hollywood Casino Promo Code
      • Canada Casinos
        • Back
        • Canada Casinos
        • Canada Online Casinos
        • Provinces
          • Back
          • Provinces
          • Alberta Online Casino
          • BC Online Casino
          • Ontario Online Casinos
        • Casino Promos
          • Back
          • Casino Promos
          • BC.GAME Bonus Code
          • Cloudbet Promo Code
          • RainBet Promo Code
          • Roobet Promo Code
          • Shuffle Promo Code
          • Thrill Promo Code
    • Prediction Markets
      • Prediction Markets
      • Prediction Market Apps
      • Prediction Market Promos
      • Kalshi Promo Code
      • Kalshi Referral Code
      • Polymarket Promo Code
      • Polymarket Referral Code
      • DraftKings Predictions Promo Code
      • Novig Promo Code
      • ProphetX Promo Code
      • Underdog Promo Code
      • Betr Promo Code
      • OG Promo Code
      • Fanatics Markets Promo Code
      • Plus500 Promo Code
      • Gemini Predictions Promo Code
    • NFL Week 2
      NFL Week 2
      • NFL Odds
      • NFL Picks
      • NFL Moneyline Picks
      • NFL AI Predictions
      • NFL Underdogs
      • NFL Prediction Markets
      • NFL Betting Sites
    Covers Account
    Log in Create account
    Join free Log in
    All Forums | College Football

    Serious question for experienced College Football bettors

    baish2012
    Fuse
    TRAIN69
    CFBLMONSTER
    somethnew
    ...
    Participants:
    Search model icon
    Views: 764
    Posts: 12
     
    baish2012
    baish2012
    Banned
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Aug, 2012
    Posts: 2055
    Posted: Oct. 29, 2021 - 9:21 AM ET #1

    Looking for a consensus opinion from long-time sports gamblers

    Betting moneylines: what do you feel is the "practical MAXIMUM" moneyline odds you would risk (to win $100) - actually risking real money; not merely "posting picks" on a sports-forum - if risking those moneylines bets on a semi-frequent basis?

    IOW, what is the practical cutoff line, above which you would definitely NOT recommended exceeding for yourself or advise to others?  

    TIA

    Reply
    Quote Post
    0
    Report User
    To remove first post, remove entire topic.

    Looking for a consensus opinion from long-time sports gamblers

    Betting moneylines: what do you feel is the "practical MAXIMUM" moneyline odds you would risk (to win $100) - actually risking real money; not merely "posting picks" on a sports-forum - if risking those moneylines bets on a semi-frequent basis?

    IOW, what is the practical cutoff line, above which you would definitely NOT recommended exceeding for yourself or advise to others?  

    TIA

     
    Fuse
    Fuse
    Legend
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Mar, 2016
    Posts: 84676
    Posted: Oct. 29, 2021 - 10:08 AM ET #2

    an_shakean_eek2

    Learn, be content and stay disciplined.
    Reply
    Quote Post
    0
    Report User

    an_shakean_eek2

     
    baish2012
    baish2012
    Banned
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Aug, 2012
    Posts: 2055
    Posted: Oct. 29, 2021 - 11:08 AM ET #3

    Quote Originally Posted by baish2012:

    Looking for a consensus opinion from long-time sports gamblers Betting moneylines: what do you feel is the "practical MAXIMUM" moneyline odds you would risk (to win $100) - actually risking real money; not merely "posting picks" on a sports-forum - if risking those moneylines bets on a semi-frequent basis? IOW, what is the practical cutoff line, above which you would definitely NOT recommended exceeding for yourself or advise to others?   TIA

     

    So what range of high ML odds would you fellas typical avoid?

    Like anything over   - ______ ?

     

    Reply
    Quote Post
    0
    Report User

    Quote Originally Posted by baish2012:

    Looking for a consensus opinion from long-time sports gamblers Betting moneylines: what do you feel is the "practical MAXIMUM" moneyline odds you would risk (to win $100) - actually risking real money; not merely "posting picks" on a sports-forum - if risking those moneylines bets on a semi-frequent basis? IOW, what is the practical cutoff line, above which you would definitely NOT recommended exceeding for yourself or advise to others?   TIA

     

    So what range of high ML odds would you fellas typical avoid?

    Like anything over   - ______ ?

     

     
    TRAIN69
    TRAIN69
    Legend
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Oct, 2002
    Posts: 55616
    Posted: Oct. 29, 2021 - 11:16 AM ET #4

    -150 is about as high as you should go....beyond that, if you dont think they can cover the spread, theres a decent chance they can lose the game....so if youre laying more than -150 (which still isnt a good idea), then you have to be right about 70% of the time (or more depending on how high the ML is).....Thats a tall task and almost guaranteed impossible long term. Sure, you might go 10-0 betting favorite MLs .....but it will bite you in the long run....

     

     

    peace_5

    Reply
    Quote Post
    0
    Report User

    -150 is about as high as you should go....beyond that, if you dont think they can cover the spread, theres a decent chance they can lose the game....so if youre laying more than -150 (which still isnt a good idea), then you have to be right about 70% of the time (or more depending on how high the ML is).....Thats a tall task and almost guaranteed impossible long term. Sure, you might go 10-0 betting favorite MLs .....but it will bite you in the long run....

     

     

    peace_5

     
    CFBLMONSTER
    CFBLMONSTER
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Nov, 2012
    Posts: 456
    Posted: Oct. 29, 2021 - 11:24 AM ET #5

    @baish2012

     If you are taking college then I am not a big believer in taking moneylines with favorites.  Too many games end up off the spread by more than 6 pts.  I would not go above -200 and if you do take it I would split with spread.  Otherwise the odds get you in long run.  If u take 3 teams -200 you could go 2-1 and break even to where the 2 wins both covered so instead of winning u break even.  You basically double your losses if you lose. People like to do it for comfort - it sucks to take a game -6 and have them win by 3.  For it to pay off you need to have the game win by less than the spread about 15% of time - this is at -200.  I think at times it’s ok but don’t recommend it frequently.  It’s same for teasers.  Doing a fav ML parlay can be ok if you include a few high favs.  I would go the other way - take the spread then bet 25% of that amount on an alt line giving pts.  Like taking a team -3.5 and -9.5 - the 9.5 would pay around plus 175.  Same with dogs - straight bet and 25% on ML.  Take adv of odds - most coll games end up off the spread by 6 or more.  This is why books like fan duel give better odds for college teasers.  

    Reply
    Quote Post
    0
    Report User

    @baish2012

     If you are taking college then I am not a big believer in taking moneylines with favorites.  Too many games end up off the spread by more than 6 pts.  I would not go above -200 and if you do take it I would split with spread.  Otherwise the odds get you in long run.  If u take 3 teams -200 you could go 2-1 and break even to where the 2 wins both covered so instead of winning u break even.  You basically double your losses if you lose. People like to do it for comfort - it sucks to take a game -6 and have them win by 3.  For it to pay off you need to have the game win by less than the spread about 15% of time - this is at -200.  I think at times it’s ok but don’t recommend it frequently.  It’s same for teasers.  Doing a fav ML parlay can be ok if you include a few high favs.  I would go the other way - take the spread then bet 25% of that amount on an alt line giving pts.  Like taking a team -3.5 and -9.5 - the 9.5 would pay around plus 175.  Same with dogs - straight bet and 25% on ML.  Take adv of odds - most coll games end up off the spread by 6 or more.  This is why books like fan duel give better odds for college teasers.  

     
    somethnew
    somethnew
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Sep, 2015
    Posts: 54
    Posted: Oct. 29, 2021 - 11:33 AM ET #6

    My example this year was doing a "can't lose favorite ML parley"  4 big favorites brought it down to 500 to win 100.  Was looking solid until A&M beat Alabama.  So there's always that. 

    Reply
    Quote Post
    0
    Report User

    My example this year was doing a "can't lose favorite ML parley"  4 big favorites brought it down to 500 to win 100.  Was looking solid until A&M beat Alabama.  So there's always that. 

     
    baish2012
    baish2012
    Banned
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Aug, 2012
    Posts: 2055
    Posted: Oct. 29, 2021 - 12:13 PM ET #7

    Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

    -150 is about as high as you should go....beyond that, if you dont think they can cover the spread, theres a decent chance they can lose the game....so if youre laying more than -150 (which still isnt a good idea), then you have to be right about 70% of the time (or more depending on how high the ML is).....Thats a tall task and almost guaranteed impossible long term. Sure, you might go 10-0 betting favorite MLs .....but it will bite you in the long run....

    Excellent points!

    Thank you, sir!

    Reply
    Quote Post
    0
    Report User

    Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

    -150 is about as high as you should go....beyond that, if you dont think they can cover the spread, theres a decent chance they can lose the game....so if youre laying more than -150 (which still isnt a good idea), then you have to be right about 70% of the time (or more depending on how high the ML is).....Thats a tall task and almost guaranteed impossible long term. Sure, you might go 10-0 betting favorite MLs .....but it will bite you in the long run....

    Excellent points!

    Thank you, sir!

     
    baish2012
    baish2012
    Banned
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Aug, 2012
    Posts: 2055
    Posted: Oct. 29, 2021 - 12:17 PM ET #8

    Quote Originally Posted by CFBLMONSTER:

    @baish2012  If you are taking college then I am not a big believer in taking moneylines with favorites.  Too many games end up off the spread by more than 6 pts.  I would not go above -200

    That's what I was looking for.  Thank you.    Another said around -170 and the still another said around -170 for hockey moneylines.  I would guess it is similar with MLB.

    Reply
    Quote Post
    0
    Report User

    Quote Originally Posted by CFBLMONSTER:

    @baish2012  If you are taking college then I am not a big believer in taking moneylines with favorites.  Too many games end up off the spread by more than 6 pts.  I would not go above -200

    That's what I was looking for.  Thank you.    Another said around -170 and the still another said around -170 for hockey moneylines.  I would guess it is similar with MLB.

     
    PeAceMaKer7690
    PeAceMaKer7690
    Veteran
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Aug, 2021
    Posts: 2455
    Posted: Oct. 29, 2021 - 12:40 PM ET #9

    What about the other direction? What is the max ++++ you would ever play? Ever do .01 to make $1000000?

    Reply
    Quote Post
    0
    Report User

    What about the other direction? What is the max ++++ you would ever play? Ever do .01 to make $1000000?

     
    baish2012
    baish2012
    Banned
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Aug, 2012
    Posts: 2055
    Posted: Oct. 29, 2021 - 2:09 PM ET #10

    The fellas on the NBA forum and NHL forum seem to be settling in around -170 give or take as a maximum (wager to win $100) in those sports -  keeping in mind the "risk of ruin" with smaller bankrolls.

    But does that apply similarly with football?

    Reply
    Quote Post
    0
    Report User

    The fellas on the NBA forum and NHL forum seem to be settling in around -170 give or take as a maximum (wager to win $100) in those sports -  keeping in mind the "risk of ruin" with smaller bankrolls.

    But does that apply similarly with football?

     
    green33
    green33
    Captain
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Dec, 2007
    Posts: 6735
    Posted: Oct. 29, 2021 - 2:31 PM ET #11

    If your planning on trying to do it as an investment you just have to find a mathematical edge in some way to where you determine if the odds are profitable in the long run 

    Reply
    Quote Post
    0
    Report User

    If your planning on trying to do it as an investment you just have to find a mathematical edge in some way to where you determine if the odds are profitable in the long run 

     
     
    BraveFanInKy
    BraveFanInKy
    Veteran
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Jan, 2021
    Posts: 3598
    Posted: Oct. 29, 2021 - 5:46 PM ET #12

    150-170 is as high as I ever go with a money line favorite in any sport.

    Reply
    Quote Post
    1
    Report User

    150-170 is as high as I ever go with a money line favorite in any sport.

    All Forums | College Football

    Hot Forums IconHot Forum Topics

    • 🤢🥴💩_ Fubah's risky baseball bets _🥶😲🥵 449,280 Covers arrow
    • 🏈🏈🏈 Fubah2's risky CFB bets 259,582 Covers arrow
    • Serious Streak Survivor Strategies 1,918,160 Covers arrow
    • PART DEUX 321 Covers arrow
    • Saturday 09/19/2026 660 Covers arrow
    • Flawed Logic & Bad Decisions: CFB Edition 2,792 Covers arrow
    • The Three-Day Money Train 5,783 Covers arrow
    • NFL LOCKED IN! 98,025 Covers arrow
    • Saturday Foots 10,737 Covers arrow
    • NCAA FOOTBALL. 151 23,258 Covers arrow

    Warning - External Link

    Report User

    Thank you for reporting
    This content is abusive or harmful
    This post is spam
    An error has occurred
    This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

    Delete Post

    Are you sure you would like to remove this post?

    Remove Thread

    Are you sure you would like to remove this thread?

    Scan Results

    Login/Register

    Happy to have you join the conversation. To do so, please login or create an account.
    Accounts are free and easy to create.

    Search


    Loading…

    Loading…

    About Us
    Contact Us
    Careers
    Our Team
    Brand
    Testimonials
    Betting Guides
    Sportsbook Reviews
    Betting News
    Podcasts
    Responsible Gambling
    Betting Sites
    US Betting Sites
    Canada Betting Sites
    Canada Casinos
    Best Betting Apps
    Contests
    Streak Survivor
    King of Covers
    Ultimate Race
    Office Pools
    The Covers community has
    810,221
    lifetime members worldwide
    Join our community today
    Covers 30 Years Logo Established in 1995,
    Covers is the world
    leader in sports
    betting information.
    21+
    Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
    Help Privacy Terms of Service Cookies Sitemap Forum
    YouTube logo
    Facebook logo
    Twitter logo
    Instagram logo
    LinkedIn logo
    Google News logo
    Covers is verified safe by:
    Evalon Logo Logo GPWA Logo GDPR logo Logo GeoTrust logo Logo PCI DSS logo Logo
    Copyright © 1995 - 2026 CS Media Ltd. All Rights Reserved.
    If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.