See a lot of KST plays, ARK plays, Over plays....yet.........

No one on the under.  Why is this?  I hear almost everyone that like kansas tonight say that they will win by steadily pounding the rock and controlling the pace of the game.   So   I am very confused.   This seems so simple to me that the under is the correct play based on solely this information with a total set at 64.   I will add I do no know much about these teams so I come here to gain information on the game on the field, none of the garbage of who your picking and line movements and blah blah blah.  I have come up with Kansas State is not good at throwing yet very effective at running and Ark is very good on offense period and their defense is not to bad and not too great but very fast.   Based on the minimul information I have gained from all of you the best play is the under.  I also have heard these coaches know their shit.   That being said Kansas will never give up on controlling pace of the game and will run, run, and run again.  Then they will keep on running.  I mean unless this team can break mulitple 40 yarders on the ground (which from what I see odds are against) then this alone will kill enough clock so that this game cant even go over.  Think about it if they run and run and are successful in the least bit every scoring possesion should last from 4-7 minutes.  Limiting the possesions on both sides of the ball.  Like I said I do not know these team.  I am 100% taking what you guys are giving me and forming my own opinion.  I think people focus too much on the bullshit Vegas throws out there and dont even think about the game on the field.  We have 13 games to guess off of.  Take these game and come up with a play based off these and the odds will be with you.  Buying into garbage and what COULD happen is sure ways of failure.

So please all bashers welcome and people who wanna actually try and break down this game and help each other out I strongly encourage your insight.  I am not here for garbage I am trying to learn how to beat Vegas and that is it.  If we all work together rather than talk shit because of who we picked, maybe we can all beat Vegas together.  And last time I said this Covers deleted my thread, maybe they are actually scared of us coming together because they understand how powerful a weapon this is if we do it right. 

Fair enough, Like I said from what I have read I see Ark having a fast enough defense to limit the big plays which would result in a faster moving clock.  But yeah if they continue to get runs of 12, 6, 28, 9, 42.  Well of course my theory is out the window. 

Cooler 

Hugo and Cubs.....  I aprreciate your opinions but I dont see either being very valuable.   Ok Ark has a very good air attack, well how is Kst defense against the pass??   You know that and I know that they have a good air attack so I assume Kan coaches do too.  So will they not continue to run and run regardless if it works tonight based on that?  Being that running the ball is their strength?  I just am coming up with Kansas doing everything they can possible do to keep ark off the field from what everyone is telling me.  And Cubs, I aint trying to say anyone will win or lose.  You obvioiously are on Ark but why?   Cause you think Kansas will go 3 and out a lot?  That would probably lead to a over play but the question is why?  Not just because they will.

I am just seeing a lot of bend dont break theories.  And speed can stop the run.  I am still leaning under and probably Ark.  I dont see any arguments about Ark being able to score.  But I am seeing it might be difficult for Kansas to effectively move the ball enough to keep up with Ark. 

KSt give up a lot of points – approximately 30+ per game against non-scrubs. I left out the 4OT game, the EKU and Kent St games and the Texas game (this one due to extreme Texas offensive injuries).

Arkansas is clearly on par with these teams offensively scoring 35+ points per game.

K St. ranks 104^th out of 120 in pass defense. Arkansas and QB Tyler Wilson should be able to beat this defense day and night to Jarius Wright. Arkansas has done this all year to the tune of 300+ passing yards per game.

Joe Adams for Arkansas is a punt / KO return waiting to happen. Edge to Arkansas there.

I think that if K St can get 21+ (and I think they can, especially if Arkansas comes out slowly) then this game should cover the O62.5 with some ease.

Go Browns and Bobcat

Thanks for bringing some real knowledge to the table.  Based on this info I am feeling less attracted to the total and more attracted to Ark.  I see that Ark should (we are always playing the odds, no sure thing) be able to move the ball no problem.  I am still seeing Kansas trying to keep that offense off the field which still leans to the under but your points are well taken to how this game could go over.  But the clearest thing to me is ARK will score points.

I logged in after a long time just to throw in my 2 cents here... I am going under and am putting about 1/5 of my online bankroll on the under. I have watched some KSU and a couple of Hog games this year. I can't look at what happens during the season to bet on bowl games. You have almost 5 weeks to prepare for 1 team. The D has not been great but I look at playmakers, when betting bowl overs. Polk, RGIII, watkins, Ellignton, DenardRob, TavAustin.. GameBreakers... guys who can take that 5 yrd hook and go 70yds with it. Sorry I love Klein, but he is not DenardRobinson. Kid is tough and keeps coming at you but to have 5 weeks to prep for it. If KSU and Baylor scored 71 combined... I cannot see how this game goes over 64.5. That's over 9 freaking TDs. Sorry I like this under bigtime.

Apprieciate the insight and your time.  Good point about the five weeks to prepare.  But they are still the same teams.  These are kids who keep the same tendincies though.  Its like the NFL you dont focus on last weeks game but the season or the last 5-6 games.  But I see your point and less weight should be put into it.  But I still value the entire season over any one game.  And without knowing or have watched these teams I still am leaning under on the Total as I see 64 being insanely high for a team that depends on the run going against a fast SEC team. 

I look at the Hogs vs Auburn game as a compare. Frazier running style for Auburn. That game ended 38-14... 52. under the 64.5

You gotta remeber all the people who clipped the Clemson over are coming back tonight and taking that profit and pounding the over. this was 61.5 and now at 64.5 and still raising... eh nowww.

See this is my point, I would never ever for the life of me make a play based on one game, or the they played team B great so team A should kill team B, etc. 

But thanks for your thoughts all are apprieciated.  I would love to hear why you think Kan will score though rather than they did over A&M

AWESOME point and I did already see and think this.  As I do not value any one game.  Vegas and the Public do.  People have such short memories they think about the last game knowing it has zero effect on this one.  Vegas knows this and take advantage over it .  Lets put it this way.  Id be willing to bet 70% + and I mean +++++  are on the over.  If this total dont jump a few points I dont think Vegas is all that worried about the over hitting.  I will also add, Vegas never does the same routine therefore simply betting off of line movement is moronic to me.  They play tricks and move lines both when they should and should not be moved otherwise we would catch on eventually. 

Kansas State vs. Arkansas

This is an interesting game. Both of these teams were passed over to play in a BCS bowl game. One team because of a rule that does not allow 3 teams in the same conference to participate in the BCS games, while the other was just passed over (mostly by the Sugar Bowl). Two of Arkansas’ coaches have taken head coaching jobs elsewhere while their defensive coordinator resigned (I didn’t think he did anything anyways, but they were 36th out of 120 teams in points allowed). This will be the second game of the season that Arkansas will play at Cowboys stadium against a Big 12 opponent. Kansas State didn’t get any love from the Sugar Bowl just like they never get any love from Vegas. Although, they ALWAYS seem to play with their competition no matter who they are playing. We will take out the Oklahoma (lost by 41), Kent State (won by 37), and Kansas (won by 38) games and in the other 9 games the margin of difference was 4.77. When Arkansas win they average 41.8 ppg. I think the Razorbacks win this 42-34.

Pick: Arkansas -7.5
Pick: Over 62.5 (Levin Lock)

This was my write up at the beginning. Now that the line is up to 10. I think I might take KSU.

GO LIONS!!