" FINISHED WITH FINAL EXAMS ! " BOWL PICKS

Question

Exams are done with and I no longer have to post my picks from the library. I was busy all day studying for my last exam and was unable to post another winner for you guys. Sorry!
Well, I have one for you guys the Poinsettia Bowl and it is
UTAH +4 (540 to win 400)
Write Up
First, I would like to talk about the line.
I feel this line is somewhat of a "head fake" in an effort to bait people into taking Cal.
If you don't understand, I will try to explain...
The first thing I noticed in this line was that an unranked team was laying points to a ranked team.
Usually, in these situations, I would be all over the Unranked team.
I have noticed a lot of people are using this reasoning to back Cal.
Although I would usually agree, for this game, I feel it is a very different situation. The difference with this game is the Public's Perception. In my opinion, the public actually has a bad perception of Utah. Although Utah is ranked here, many people perceive Utah as overrated and unathletic. The reason is many people haven't seen Utah play this season and those who have just remember watching Utah getting manhandled by TCU. What many people do not realize is that in that game, Utah was in a situational disaster playing against an angry TCU team that had revenge on their minds after losing to Utah in the 2008 season. Also, Utah's only other losses were to Oregon, a team playing in the Rose Bowl and BYU, a team that many covers' posters recently found out is a solid team.

I AM NOT DONE.

On to the actual teams. In my head, I feel that Utah has huge advantages over Cal on both offense and defense. After watching Cal both early and late in the season, I feel Utah's offensive line will have a big edge against what I feel is a very soft Cal defense.
Also, on the defensive side for Utah, I feel it will be all about stuffing the run. As Cal run's a straight forward pro style offense, I think Utah will be able to stuff the run and contain Cal's offense.

There are a few intangibles that also make me feel better backing Utah as they will be sending off 24 seniors. Although this will essentially be a home game for Cal, Utah should end up winning straight up or at least covering a field goal and yes, I laid the juice for the extra point.

As always, GOOD LUCK!

ilovekim · Answer

Exams are done with and I no longer have to post my picks from the library. I was busy all day studying for my last exam and was unable to post another winner for you guys. Sorry!
Well, I have one for you guys the Poinsettia Bowl and it is
UTAH +4 (540 to win 400)
Write Up
First, I would like to talk about the line.
I feel this line is somewhat of a "head fake" in an effort to bait people into taking Cal.
If you don't understand, I will try to explain...
The first thing I noticed in this line was that an unranked team was laying points to a ranked team.
Usually, in these situations, I would be all over the Unranked team.
I have noticed a lot of people are using this reasoning to back Cal.
Although I would usually agree, for this game, I feel it is a very different situation. The difference with this game is the Public's Perception. In my opinion, the public actually has a bad perception of Utah. Although Utah is ranked here, many people perceive Utah as overrated and unathletic. The reason is many people haven't seen Utah play this season and those who have just remember watching Utah getting manhandled by TCU. What many people do not realize is that in that game, Utah was in a situational disaster playing against an angry TCU team that had revenge on their minds after losing to Utah in the 2008 season. Also, Utah's only other losses were to Oregon, a team playing in the Rose Bowl and BYU, a team that many covers' posters recently found out is a solid team.

I AM NOT DONE.

On to the actual teams. In my head, I feel that Utah has huge advantages over Cal on both offense and defense. After watching Cal both early and late in the season, I feel Utah's offensive line will have a big edge against what I feel is a very soft Cal defense.
Also, on the defensive side for Utah, I feel it will be all about stuffing the run. As Cal run's a straight forward pro style offense, I think Utah will be able to stuff the run and contain Cal's offense.

There are a few intangibles that also make me feel better backing Utah as they will be sending off 24 seniors. Although this will essentially be a home game for Cal, Utah should end up winning straight up or at least covering a field goal and yes, I laid the juice for the extra point.

As always, GOOD LUCK!

ilovekim · Answer

I am seeing all the lambs being lined up for this one. CAL LARGE CAL LARGE CAL LARGE...

KVEGAS · Answer

Once again...don&#x27;t play a bowl game or any game for that matter if you are not fully confident. you make good points, and sound confident, but then anyone who reads the end of your post where it says &#x2B;4 knows you are actually bluffing, and aren&#x27;t that confident at all...don&#x27;t play games for the sake of playing them!&#xD;&#xA;Buying points=lack of confidence

KVEGAS · Answer

and as far as lambs being lined up..&#xD;&#xA;consensus shows more people are on utah then cal&#xD;&#xA;line movement is showing that the sharps are on cal

Bruuuuce78 · Answer

Just to add...............Cal got killed by washington and USC........both bad teams

ilovekim · Answer

KVEGAS YOU ARE A CLOWN. SEEING YOU HAVE A CLOWN IN YOUR AVATAR IT ALL MAKES SENSE. HOW DO YOU EQUATE BUYING A POINT TO LACKING CONFIDENCE IN A PICK?

I AM VERY CONFIDENT IN MY PLAYS AS #1, I DON'T TAIL PEOPLE AND #2, I AM AT A POINT DOING THIS WHERE I FEEL I CAN DO IT FOR A LIVING.
I PAY THE JUICE BECAUSE I CAN AFFORD TO AND SOMETIMES IT MAKES THE DIFFERENCE!
PRIME EXAMPLE, MY BOOK HAD PITT -1.5 ON SUNDAY AND I LAID THE JUICE FOR THE ML. IT HAD NOTHING TO DO WITH A LACK OF CONFIDENCE YOU PRICK.

ilovekim · Answer

KVEGAS, you think you are so smart because you look at sportsinsights or vegasinsider. A better indicator of who the public is on is this clown forum full of people like you! Another Prime Example is Monday Night Football where I pounded the Giants!

And don't try coming in here giving me advice about being confident. Check my fuckin posts before. I bet the COWBOYS straight up on the moneyline when they slapped the SAINTS around.

You're a clown!

ilovekim · Answer

I was hoping the line would move to 3.5 but it actually jumped down.So, I can&#x27;t wait any longer. ADDING: 300 to win 375 UTAH ML

cloud804 · Answer

HEY ILOVEKIM, IN THE LAST 4 GAMES DOG HAD WON 3 AND, U THINK DOG IS GOING TO WIN TONITE TOO? OVER IN THE LAST 4 GAMES, WHAT ABOUT TONITE,,,UNDER OR OVER? ANY IDEA?

GoldjaBoy · Answer

.....................what are you taking in school?

ilovekim · Answer

Cloud, I don&#x27;t use trends like that to cap games but Yes, for this game I like Utah.Goldja Boy, I am currently a double major in Economics and Marketing but I fuc*in hate school

KVEGAS · Answer

LOL. COME ON MAN. YOU BET THE ML AND YOU TAKE THE POINTS AND BUY A POINT ON TOP OF IT...MAKES NO SENSE WHAT SO EVER

NewYorkCowboy · Answer

Well first I would like to say thanks for the write up, it's nice to have others share why they are betting a particular way, instead of just saying bet the house ... lock... sure thing etc ... (like some morons do on here) and Second I have to share my own opinion as to you're betting habits and hopefully stop these bad tendencies right now in there tracks......... because quite frankly, as someone who is more than a recreational gambler myself, and someone who knows many others who also gamble for a living: Buying points and laying the extra cash for a point or two is a terrible proposition. DO NOT DO IT, no matter how good it looks.IT IS A BAD BET, ALWaYS, EVERY-TIME ... it's for suckers DON"T DO IT!! And if you are so inclined too, and feel you must do it, then do it in the NFL, where the number is consistently better than in college games (although betting the NFL for anything other than fun, small amounts or weather games is a risk all in itself!

ANyways that's just my opinion, best of luck tonight!

ilovekim · Answer

I AM SURE IT DOESN&#x27;T MAKE SENSE TO YOU. IT MIGHT MAKE SENSE THAT I CAN AFFORD TO RISK A WAGER ON THE MONEY LINE AND THAT IT ALSO MAY MAKE SENSE THAT AS A COLLEGE KID, I AM UP CLOSE TO 15K THIS SEASON. I DON&#x27;T HAVE TO PROVE MYSELF TO A CLOWN LIKE YOU.

grnlntrn4life · Answer

On Utah &#x2B;3 as well.. BOL kim!!

ilovekim · Answer

Thanks for the advice New York Cowboy but I am not taking any of it.
For many people, sportsbetting is recreational or a form of gambling but I don't approach it that way. Without a 9-5 job, it is a form of income for me. I started sportsbetting about five years ago and like most people, I started out small. I have been very successful and hopefully I will continue to thrive in handicapping. To me, this is not gambling but more a job. I do a lot of research and due diligence before making wagers. Once again, thank you for your concern but I already have two parents and don't need anymore. Not to mention, I have held my own against the books.

nbafan88 · Answer

all talk

NewYorkCowboy · Answer

NO PROBLEM,  good luck to you, and I hope you keep winning !!

GoldjaBoy · Answer

START making sure you LOVE school. Do well, and study hard. Your future depends !!!on that!&#xD;&#xA;make sure you get the certificate!!&#xD;&#xA;after that , you can do anything you want!&#xD;&#xA;hell-----------------you can become a SLUM LORD like myself!

ilovekim · Answer

What&#x27;s a slum lord? Sounds intriguing! I am interested!

ccalla05 · Answer

Bears -2.5.&#xD;&#xA;As you may know sharps tend to make their wagers earlier in the week and not on gameday. I am thinking that they placed their wager on Cal sometime around the 15th when we say the first line move from -3 to -3.5 at most books and had an early 60% consensus on Cal. However, as of last night the consensus was 54% on Cal but looking at it now its 58% Utah which suggest a heavy amount of wagers on the Utes who have won 8 straight bowl games and probably also has something to do with BYU&#x27;s beat down of Oregon St. Which can be more explained by a bad spot for OSU more than the Moutain West strength. &#xD;&#xA;As far as capping the game. I look for a motivated group of Bears following their embarassing performance vs Washington to come out and show the public how much skill they really have. Yes, Cal has had a very up and down season however Cal always plays well in bowl games under Tedford. While, Utah does play very well in bowl games 8 straight W&#x27;s in bowls I beliive Cal puts an end to that streak. As the betting public gets off the bowl favorite bandwagon as it has gone 1-3 thus far this bowl season.and rides the Utes into anoher loss.

ilovekim · Answer

You make some very valid points Ccalla. Good luck on the game.

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