One of the biggest line movements of the year on a side is happening right now....

I honestly thought, as soon as Milton went down, this line would be a pick’um.

When I saw 9.5, it felt like Ed McMahon was at my door with a Publisher’s Clearing House check (replete with multi-colored balloons). So I took all the points I was given and played the ML too.

Does it concern you that Memphis has been awful on the road this year?

Lost to Navy by a point, lost to Tulane by 16 and didn't exactly blowout ECU. One win at SMU who is not great.

If you go by this track record I am not sure if it matters who is playing QB for UCF.

Thoughts on this?

Thanks.

As a concern, look at the games themselves. 2-3 is not abominable.

First:

@Missouri - This is a game they are not going to win. The two conferences are not on par with each other so a loss here is fine, if not a given in a year Missouri needed to make major strides after putting up goose eggs to open the year last year.

@Tulane - This was an 'all in' game for Tulane. They were 1 - 3 and as I've said numerous times, nothing less than a bowl was acceptable this year. Go to 1 - 4 and you are essentially finished. They came out like a house of fire and got the job done. Bad spot for Memphis.

@Navy - The loss is bad given how bad Navy was this year but they decided to go toe to toe with Navy running the ball. Bad decision as they rushed for 260 even though Henderson had a ridiculous 230. But this game was decided due to turnovers. Memphis couldn't hold onto the ball and turned it over 4 times.

All in all when you examine the losses they are explainable and this is not a team that can't win on the road or even has trouble, per se, on the road in light of that.

You cannot in any way underestimate how big a loss Milton is for UCF. It's akin to the Packers losing Rogers and the line has adjusted accordingly in light of that. I think the game should be a pickum. Watch the last game. They absolutely should have beaten UCF with Milton. Take all the points they give you and don't be afraid to play the ML.

I'll tail you here. Moneyline.

Well I'd advocate it even at 3, the current line. And I believe the ML might even go away. This might be a -1 or a pickum at kick-off as betting picks up steam the next two days and on Saturday morning. So there is still 'value' to be lost in the ML right NOW.

Honest to god, I thought the books would lay off posting this line for longer than usual just to let the Milton injury sink in.

I had a post write-up that I would advocate taking the game at a PICK'UM.

When I saw 9.5, my two eyes had Double Diamond Slot Machine symbols in them. So even at THREE, it's still better, and perhaps sitting on a key number and your opinion, significantly better than a Pick'UM.

I can guarantee you this:

There is not a SINGLE UCF fan who will be in that stadium who isn't sweating like a war surgeon right now trying to down as many beers as it takes to quell their anxiety about this game. 

Josh Heupel looked like he saw Bear Bryant's ghost behind the reporter grilling him on the gameplan after Milton went down (which was basically just run through a USF D-Line which the most skilled of matadors envied. It worked...for one night. Now comes the hard part.)

They already did.

Vs USF.

Very tough to keep up that emotional high....

Plus, you are battling the conference & refs. NEVER underestimate that part. UCF can still go to a major bowl....a Memphis win gets everyone nothing.....

1. “UFC is going to win.”

First off, this isn’t a bold statement. They opened as 9.5 point favorites AFTER the books knew Milton was finished.

Now they are -165 favorites, a line cappers don’t respect when compared to a -110 spread after a win because of the juice.

2. “The backup has seen plenty of action”

Wrong, aside from the emergency start last game, he started one game against lowly ECU.

In that game he was 12-20 for 69 yards and 3.5 ypg against a team ranked 107th in the nation in pass defense and near the absolute bottom in ypp pass defense at 8.4 where only teams like Rice, UConn and New Mexico have them beat.

He’s seen 10 snaps for 24 yards otherwise.

He’s a true freshman in a championship who uses his legs. He better be faster than speedy Gonzalez on this stage.

3. “UCF’s defense is better”

Thank you Train, I didn’t notice, but no thank you. Defenses won’t be the panacea you need to cover if you go down on the scoreboard. And that’s where you’ll have to depend on Mack. And such a prospect has UCF backers soiling themselves.

UCF has won 24 in a row. The gutsy pick is Memphis. Not UCF, even against a backup. 

I knew UCF bettors and fans would try to play the underdog role here.

It’s not gonna work on me brother.

Come to the table with more than that.

I could not disagree more.  Memphis is in a very strong revenge situation and they just did a number on Houston and are very healthy.  At least 50% of UCF's offense was Milton and without him they will be a one dimensional team and Memphis will be able to load the box and stop the run.

UCF's back-up QB, Mack has only seen action in a couple of games and is not a strong passer.  He has only completed 21 of 43 passes for 174 yards, which is about half the yards Milton gets per game.  Also, has never faced this type of pressure.  When he went in against S. Florida, he did not have a week to worry about it and feel all of the pressure.  He has no Passing TD's and only averages 6 yards per pass, which means he has thrown a lot of screen passes and nothing down field.  Memphis has an entire week to prepare for this.

The loss of Milton is way too difficult for this team to overcome IMO.

The games should be fun to watch this weekend

I don’t know a thing about football because I debunked every one of your misinformed generalizations about this game? You don’t even know the back-up QB’s NAME without looking it up (as evidenced by your “the backup” quote instead of typing 4 letters M A C K.) Typing 9 letters instead of 4 tells me all I need to know about efficient communication and/or lack of content knowledge about this game.

I’d react the same way too if I’d been embarrassed about a post like yours as well.

You follow up ignorance with ignorance:

So the linesmakers didn’t make a mistake opening a game at -9.5 and have the public pound it to -3? A 6.5 point line move through all the key number below ten now isn’t ...a mistake.

Somewhere they huddled saying, “Let’s open this at -9.5, have the public out 90% of the money on it and then we’ll get 50/50 action.”

Ah, what great linesmaking! Lol.

Well what would be a mistake? A 14 point move? A 21 point move? 

There are no mistakes in the world of bookmaking by your definition.

Again, you’re barking up the wrong tree. I’m the guy who will come back at a bark with no bite, only to leave the dog yelping...

Kibbles and Bits anyone???

Thanks for the chuckle. Debunked? Bwahahaha

Like I said you dont knoe anything about football. Sure you can spew stats and form what seems like a good argument....until the games are played. 

Go ahead and line up with "90%" of the public and see how that turns out 90% of the time. You arent betting on Memphis, you are betting against UCF and the oddsmakers. 

I'll take a team that hasnt lost in 2 years and vegas. Every day. All day.

Im ready for your writeup in the SMU bowl game.....

Oh, wait.....

Meow.

I’m still counting the profits I hit from their under 5.5 TT RSW. I’ll bump the thread if you desire. But I think I’ll spare you on that one.

Quote stats? “Don’t know anything about football”

Don’t quote stats? “Don’t know anything about football”

Like a tried and true Trumpest, be on both sides of the fence when convenient.

Carter I’ve never attempted to middle a game in my life and now is not the time either.

We both know Im a better football capper than you. Lets be honest. Also, all this tough guy, keyboard warrior stuff is hilarious. You would stand zero chance man to man either.

Good luck to you and the 90% of people fighting to get to the pay window 1st.....

And that goes any post of yours or mine for that matter, ever posted here (because as I’ve said many times, I’d have Biblical scribes envious of my contributions here on college football and exotics and anything and everything else, albeit the keyboard makes it exponentially easier when compared to the sharp quill and ink jar).

Now onto physically, fighting one on one?

I haven’t had a person step to me since I was 14, the year I started lifting, a hobby I haven’t stopped since.

That includes the most gravelly voiced, overly tattooed, Hell’s Angels leather vest wearing, portopotty stench smelling bouncers who typically “know their place” when I flash my ID in drinking establishments.

Which is exactly how I picture you...

Speaking of which, someone get me a clothespin because I think I can smell you from here.

So why would you be any different....?

Biblical scribes. 

You mean fiction writers.

Yet here you are.....