Posted:
#26
Great writeup, hope it plays out like this!
OLE MISS VS MIA - 2.5 XL Write Up
Posted:
#50
Quote Originally Posted by Rolexsports:
Record stands @ 8-5 + 6,560.00. I don’t understand the line move here. Some heavy $ came in on Mississippi overnight. Some sharps in LV must really love OM’s offense backed by a QB that leads the nation with a 79.0 % passing grade when under pressure. TC is a dynamic QB that gets rid of the ball on average ( 2.59 seconds). The young man only has 3 picks on the entire year and he’ll make a lot of money in the near future but, he’s going up against a defense that leads the nation with a 92.2 team pass rush grade , a 61.3 % pass rush win rate and a top 3 pressure rate on defense @ 39.6 %. Marcell Reed is also a scrambling QB , and between Bain & Mesidor , they sacked him 7 times and had 33 pressures. Ole Miss is 85th nationally in O line run blocking rate, so if Lacy & TC have any kind of success running tonight, they’ll have to do by making Miami’s defense miss a lot . Don’t see that happening much at all tonight. Miami’s defensive line has a 89.3 run defensive grade ( 2nd nationally ) On the flip side, Miami allow the least pressures in the nation. Their O line only gives up 16.4 % in pressure, lowest in the nation by far. Miami hasn’t given up more than 24 points all season. Ole Miss will be missing several assistant coaches tonight vs a well established, and stable coaching staff Miami has. Don’t get me wrong, I see this being a close game, it may come down to a FG either way but, Miami has a 69% TD rate in the RZ compared to 64.5 % from Ole Miss. Miami gives up on average 292.3 yds a game, Ole Miss gives up 358.5 per game on average. Big difference. Defense wins championships, always have and always will. In turn over margin, Miami ranks 11th @ + 0.8 per game, whereas Ole Miss ranks 64th @ only taken the ball away + 0.1 of games. Meaning Miami’s defense takes the ball away at least once a game almost. SOS , Miami is + 14.7 ranked 5th , Ole Miss + 11.0 ranked 20th , both strong but Miami stronger. On offense. Miami’s completion rate @ a 72.38 % , where as this high powered OM’s rate is only @ 63.93 %. Meaning OM take more chances on the long ball vs taking it nice , slow and methodical like the Canes. 3rd down conversion rate , Miami @ 45.12 % , OM 43.35 %. RZ overall scoring, Miami 90.38% , OM 85.52%. On defense, this is a big deal as well. Miami’s opponents pts per play is only @ 0.208 compared to OM’s , 0.323 pts per play allowed, that will not bode well tonight folks. My raw numbers after I computed it all comes up with the Canes by - 4.9 to - 5.38. Miami is better @ pt differential, 3rd down defense, RZ O&D , run defense, opponents passer rating, net yrs per pass def, sack differential and field position. Miami will flip the field all night long , ranks Miami 4th , OM 44th. Give me Miami - 2.5 ( buy ) 5,200/4,000. Bought a half a pt just in case it’s a FG game GL to all on the Canes tonight.
Record stands @ 8-5 + 6,560.00. I don’t understand the line move here. Some heavy $ came in on Mississippi overnight. Some sharps in LV must really love OM’s offense backed by a QB that leads the nation with a 79.0 % passing grade when under pressure. TC is a dynamic QB that gets rid of the ball on average ( 2.59 seconds). The young man only has 3 picks on the entire year and he’ll make a lot of money in the near future but, he’s going up against a defense that leads the nation with a 92.2 team pass rush grade , a 61.3 % pass rush win rate and a top 3 pressure rate on defense @ 39.6 %. Marcell Reed is also a scrambling QB , and between Bain & Mesidor , they sacked him 7 times and had 33 pressures. Ole Miss is 85th nationally in O line run blocking rate, so if Lacy & TC have any kind of success running tonight, they’ll have to do by making Miami’s defense miss a lot . Don’t see that happening much at all tonight. Miami’s defensive line has a 89.3 run defensive grade ( 2nd nationally ) On the flip side, Miami allow the least pressures in the nation. Their O line only gives up 16.4 % in pressure, lowest in the nation by far. Miami hasn’t given up more than 24 points all season. Ole Miss will be missing several assistant coaches tonight vs a well established, and stable coaching staff Miami has. Don’t get me wrong, I see this being a close game, it may come down to a FG either way but, Miami has a 69% TD rate in the RZ compared to 64.5 % from Ole Miss. Miami gives up on average 292.3 yds a game, Ole Miss gives up 358.5 per game on average. Big difference. Defense wins championships, always have and always will. In turn over margin, Miami ranks 11th @ + 0.8 per game, whereas Ole Miss ranks 64th @ only taken the ball away + 0.1 of games. Meaning Miami’s defense takes the ball away at least once a game almost. SOS , Miami is + 14.7 ranked 5th , Ole Miss + 11.0 ranked 20th , both strong but Miami stronger. On offense. Miami’s completion rate @ a 72.38 % , where as this high powered OM’s rate is only @ 63.93 %. Meaning OM take more chances on the long ball vs taking it nice , slow and methodical like the Canes. 3rd down conversion rate , Miami @ 45.12 % , OM 43.35 %. RZ overall scoring, Miami 90.38% , OM 85.52%. On defense, this is a big deal as well. Miami’s opponents pts per play is only @ 0.208 compared to OM’s , 0.323 pts per play allowed, that will not bode well tonight folks. My raw numbers after I computed it all comes up with the Canes by - 4.9 to - 5.38. Miami is better @ pt differential, 3rd down defense, RZ O&D , run defense, opponents passer rating, net yrs per pass def, sack differential and field position. Miami will flip the field all night long , ranks Miami 4th , OM 44th. Give me Miami - 2.5 ( buy ) 5,200/4,000. Bought a half a pt just in case it’s a FG game GL to all on the Canes tonight.
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