nostradamus week 1

We lose Megalocks and add the ever-impetuous VegasJason.??

Well thanks for noticing me Byu!

VJ, I don't usually say much but starting your own thread with analysis and the way you do things might be the best way to introduce yourself to the entire forum.GL to you 

As always best of luck this season nos

Sportschat I have had a ton of threads explaining myself and my game analysis the past 8 weeks.

Not sure what beef Megalocks has with me. Honestly its not important though. He is a good capper, I will read his analysis and respond as I wish like just as I would anyone else.

HUH?  I doubt Mega even knows you exist.  Dude, really, you are not God's gift to capping  

what's going on fellas....best of luck this season

vegasjason....we'll give one more example of what we were talking about with regression in the context of what we were saying and that'll be it.....so handicapper A has 58% ATS over 10 years and starts this season at 4-20 and handicapper B like most people has 50% ATS over 10 yrs and starts 20-4......and gun to your head you have to let someone pick your games for money week 3....if you don't go with handicapper A I can't help you....tendency on here would be to jump on/tail the 20-4 ATS handicapper B...doesn't matter so much anyway just our view....in the end doesn't really matter as far as own handicapping

SC - good point there, GL this year bud

reducing UGA play to 0.75 due to unsure about RBs....adding a couple totals........

So Carolina-Vandy under 43 (0.5)

Ga Tech-Boston Coll under 44 (0.5)

Vanderbilt 17 SC 13....Dores offense is pretty limited giving SC front 7 a shot to contain them similar to last year and Vandy defense should be pretty solid against mediocre at best SC skill positions....3 of 5 in series 30 or under combined....feels similar to Vandy openers against SC and Auburn in recent years

GT 20 BC 14 - looks like BC defense...among the best....matches up pretty well against GT and not sure how much BC offense will be improved and tends to keep it conservative......pretty good odds of rain that time of year in Dublin on grass

updated week 1

Florida -36 (1.25)

Penn St -18.5 (1.25)

Ohio St -27 (-115)

Boise St -19

Georgia -3 (0.75)

Ohio -20 (0.75)

Toledo +3.5 (0.75)

W Kentucky -15 (0.75)

Wisconsin +10 (-115) (0.75)

Auburn +7.5 (0.5)

Ball St +3 (0.5)

Indiana -8 (0.5)

Missouri +11 (-115) (0.5)

SC-Vanderbilt under 43 (0.5)

GA Tech-BC under 44 (0.5)

probably will do it other than looking at 2-3 FCS-FBS matchups when numbers available....probably on or close to game day for our two books......only a couple weeks to go for some CFB...oh yeah

Nost, glad to have you back, I have respected your opinions for over 6 years.

I am very curious why you are taking Wisky?

Also curious why you think Auburn can hang with Watson?

I like Georgia, on that with you.

Like the SC/Vandy under, but I am probably rolling with the cocks, gotta look at it more.

Would love your thoughts on the Bama game.

BOL this season

 

Season has already started

Does anyone have a feel for which coaches like to run up the score and which ones don't.  Sabin appears to be a good (under) guy and Swoops the opposite (over)

Does anyone have a feel for which coaches like to run up the score and which ones don't.  Sabin appears to be a good (under) guy and Swoops the opposite (over)

I'm pretty sure page 1 shows his reasoning for whisky

what's going on fellas

tappy - good to see you back, looking forward to it man...as far as those games although we go some by feel, a few keys we were looking at for...Wisky....solid defense #2 last year at 268 allowed, matched up pretty well in '14 28-24 game and able to run some in that one 260+ rushing, and that WI players should be pretty fired up to play Lambeau.....as far as Auburn, looking at both offense and D to be improved and seems like team is pretty motivated and GM claims QB play much improved, Clemson defense was not that dominate last year (#24 with 21.7ppg), and Auburn hasn't really been blown out often at home with only 1 loss by more than 8 points (last year against AL)....good luck this year bud

a few things keeping an eye on......Florida banged up at WR and lost Tabor to suspension...dammit...Toledo injuries and suspensions....don't really like the time change on Boise-ULL to 12 EST...possible BSU comes out flat...f#%#, congrats ULL backers....leaving them as is for now....back next week to check out a couple FCS-FBS

note the Auburn reference to 1 loss by double digits is over the last 3 years...against mostly strong teams....of course they could get blown out by a great team. so just a small play

adding small play on degenerate 6.5 teaser.......

So Carolina +10/Alabama -4 (0.5)

Dores don't beat many teams by DD (ODU over past couple) and SC defense looks pretty motivated and should match up against this offense....Bateman makes us nervous but AL running and short passing should control USC front 7 and short number obviously never too bad with this team

check you guys next week...can't wait 

 

Not sure if you heard, but I am like 90% positive Hurts will be the starting QB for Bama, bringing in an entirely new dynamic to a stagnant offense.  Just FYI

tappy - yeah hadn't seen outcome...comfortable with any of the 3....ok not really, good luck this week buddy

reducing/offset Wisconsin to smaller play for 0.5...not crazy about losing key LB

adding small play.....

UTEP -9.5 (0.5)

UTEP 45 NM St 28 - haven't had UTEP much over the years...NM St Rose doubtful possibly putting most of it on Rogers....UTEP Greenlee looking pretty sharp in camp and Jones back...NM St had been 2-13 ATS as road dog before going 4-2 last season

possibly checking out write in game Sat and maybe one other total and wrap things up....few hours until kickoffs

 

Hey guys. Think I am ready to pull trigger for thurs.
Vandy-usc under 42 (2 units)
Wake-Tulane under 44 (2 units)
Vandy u42/wake u44/ga st -3.5/ga tech u44 (2units).
Wait and see what happens tonight before more fri-sat action. Bol everyone!!!

Hard to believe that our only common play is the Scary/Vandy UNDER.

Best of luck to you this season ND!!!

Your basing a lot of your picks off old info most games u took ur explanation have old info of what they done in past which means nothing most of teams lost players strarted o coordinator d coordinators lost qb Ohio st lost have there team to nfl so a lot of no names on team Wisconsin lost most of line and there d coordinator is now at lsu and they lost there best weapon stave

doc - what's going on my friend, we'll take a look at that FCS match and some others...also have Huskies on the radar for week 2 possibly getting around 10-12 against Navy, BOL bud

hammer - looks like that's off to a good start, GL

JDF - what's going on man, good to see you around....one of the best...good to see we both got that SC total, BOL this season bud

A25 - nah I don't look at any players that left...ain't nobody got time for that (google for remix video and a good laugh)...seriously though past tendencies over the past 3-4 years is one small part of what we consider for prior matchups with same team, home/road/surface, or if a team hasn't beaten or lost by DD, etc....as far as players seeing who left is the easy part, the more time consuming part and skill is figuring out who the replacement is...might be a better player or the same...schools like AL, LSU, OSU have less impact over the years due to deep talent pool so when they lose 7-8 starters on O or D it's less or no impact...guess in the end it just comes down to ATS and cash long term, however anyone gets there...or doesn't get there, GL

typo on the UTEP cash was actually only 0.35...it's the Miners for god sake.....not much difference anyway....reduced/offset Toledo to 0.5 earlier

adding.....

Notre Dame-Texas under 59.5 (0.35)

ND 26 Texas 23 - expecting Horns defense to be improved and some drop off for ND WR.....whether it's Swoopes (41% comp in the first half of games last year and never impressed with) or frosh Buechele seems Strong will keep things pretty tight and lean towards run similar to last year at least early...Horns haven't yet shown they can hit 30 against a decent defense

solid start last night....long way to go in 200 game season......checking out some FCS tomorrow to wrap things up

updated week 1

Florida -36 (1.25)
Penn St -18.5 (1.25)
Ohio St -27 (-115)
Boise St -19
Georgia -3 (0.75)
Ohio -20 (0.75)
W Kentucky -15 (0.75)
Toledo +3.5 (0.5)
Wisconsin +10 (-115) (0.5)
Auburn +7.5 (0.5)
Ball St +3 (0.5)
Indiana -8 (0.5)
Missouri +11 (-115) (0.5)
SC-Vanderbilt under 43 (0.5)
GA Tech-BC under 44 (0.5)
So Carolina +10/Alabama -4 (teaser)(0.5)
UTEP -9.5 (0.35)
ND-Texas under 59.5 (0.35)

I am curious what your thoughts about Wisky are if that line creeps up past 13 (which I think it will do).? Hard not to take that IMO with most of the game being won on the ground.