nostradamus week 1

LonghornHoosier I will be giving out 20 plays a week. I certainly know if I go 1-4 on my 5s in the first week people will have no respect for me. I am here for the long haul of the season. I actually do not want people to follow me blindly. I do not care if hit 58% on my stars going into Bowl season, I would never want me to follow me on a blind basis. What makes this forum useful is the discussion of strengths and weaknesses of each team. I will not follow for instance any capper on this thread to make my bets, I will however listen to the discussion, dig deep with my own research and the shared research. I have for instance mentioned on Florida and Penn St that I have taken the insights of others on this forum to formulate a decision to bet those teams in week 1. I have also taken some discussion points on the Vandy-SC game to lower my rating on Vandy. 

VJ - that's cool.  that's what this forum is all about, to share information, and for everyone to get more refined with their picks.     you are correct, people have to do their own research.   unfortunately, a lot of folks are just looking for others to do their research and that can be a losing proposition.     every pick I make, I strive for perfection, even though that is just not possible when it comes to sports wagering.  but, I think its a good goal.    that plus, as a mentor taught me, keep track of your wins and losses ATS, and understand why you one or why you lost, so you can get better in week 2 and beyond.  right now, I am looking at box scores from last season.    i think you will see that agree on a few picks (when I post week 1 in 1-2 weeks).     i have enjoyed interacting with you.   i look forward to doing so this season.  cheers  LHH

someone needs to relax and the season hasn't even started, wow

LH - good thought on the IU possible motivation after the bowl....along with extra practices....not to mention they are improving taking several of the B10's best to the wire

wahoo - seen it all before...never too early

train - looking forward to it bud

vegasjason - yeah I'm familiar with the independent result theory which is true any single event...key word being single....however regression to the mean is real and recognized by people much smarter than myself.....pasted below straight from Google which explains it better

In statistics, regression toward (or to) the mean is the phenomenon that if a variable is extreme on its first measurement, it will tend to be closer to the average on its second measurement—and if it is extreme on its second measurement, it will tend to have been closer to the average on its first.

 

the other key is the sample has to be large enough.....the larger the better.....for example someone goes 580-420 over 10 years has an well established mean.....as opposed to going 58-42 in the first year....most people posting have no established reliable mean other than 97%+ lose money long term so their mean is closer to 50% until proven otherwise long term

I run so fast I make guys who run fast look not so fast

good luck this year my man

O4 -

JMW - good to see you back bud, BOL this season bud

feel pretty good overall card considering locked in a couple months earlier than usual early Aug.....thinking about lowering Toledo some to small play although number down to 3 and for now we'll see how Voytik and Liner look in camp....plus checking out injury reports for all games.....liking several week 2 matchups still a lot of those teams to look at over the next few weeks

updated week 1

Florida -36 (1.25)

Penn St -18.5 (1.25)

Ohio St -27 (-115)

Boise St -19

Georgia -3

Ohio -20 (0.75)

Toledo +3.5 (0.75)

W Kentucky -15 (0.75)

Wisconsin +10 (-115) (0.75)

Auburn +7.5 (0.5)

Ball St +3 (0.5)

Indiana -8 (0.5)

Football is almost here !!!!   

BOL Nos as always

tide, SC - good to see you guys back, looking forward to the insight and making some cash, BOL this year fellas

adding......

Missouri +11 (-115) (0.5)

somewhat missed the early number at 11.5 -110

WV 26 Missouri 23......expecting the Tigers offense to be improved with another year for Lock and some skill position transfers....OL is questionable....give them the advantage on defense....WV 9-15 ATS as home chalk lately while MO is 12-5 ATS as road dog over last few despite going 1-2 last year...still until pretty pitiful offense last year is proven we'll keep it small

back in a couple weeks for possible total and FCS matchups

Oh I'm 100% aware so called smart people believe in regression to the mean. I CALL 100% BS ON IT! Nostradamus I like most of your picks, just do not see it on Auburn or Wisconsin though.

VegasJason - you underestimate the value of the hope field in the Auburn/Clemson and LSU/Wisc match-ups.  It appears you cap everything on what P Steele, and the other rags offer preseason.     Sure, if Harris can execute downfield passes consistently, there is a good chance LSU can cover, and possibly by a significant margin, but that's a big if.      And though the game is a Lambaugh and not in Madison, it will be 85% Wisconsin fans and it will be loud.    With regard to Auburn v. Clemson, there is a reason the line only Clemson  -7.5, don't you think...Almost seems too good to be true...That's what the books are counting on...I don't know if Clemson will cover, and JTF listing it as his #1 play in week 1, makes it hard to turn down...I just think a cohesive D, playing with a chip on its shoulders has the potential to limit the effectiveness of a  "High Profile" Heisman caliber QB in its house...Both, of these matchups will be no plays for me.  With regard to LSU, Les Miles has a "history" of  f^cking things ups...

I did not even buy Phil Steele this year. I certainly never forget home field advantage. I am discounting it some in the Wisconsin game for it not being at camp R. I feel like chip on shoulder , home field, SEC defense are cover for people not having actual matchup reasons for predicting a cover. I think its also funny when people fall back on well Vegas knows something we dont. Well if Vegas freaking knows everything then why the hell are we in this forum trying to figure out wagers? Seems like the worse of handicapping logic when people say well I expect they play fired up at home?

As for this amazing Auburn D it was 81st in rush defense and 63rd in pass for 71st overall defensive yardage last season. Not saying Auburn does not have good talent back on D, just saying lets not make it out to be any better than a good defense to start to the season. The Clemson offense is elite.

I will stand by my ranking of Auburn being tied with Arkansas as the 8th best team in the SEC.

you are disrespectful.   I am done with you.   good luck.

Love Florida -36! Was watching the spring game and Del Rio looks like the real deal. They have tons of depth at RB and that new kicker they have is unreal. Was hitting from 50+ and booting the ball through the back of the end zone

Agree on Florida. Night home opening game. The Swamp will be rockin. Gators suffocating defense. Should be good. If Del Rio handles his business, then Florida should do well...

Longhorn you crack me up. It sorta sounded like you took multiple shots at my handicapping method and knowledge of college football history. I answered back on my points of disagreement with you on the Clemson-Aburn game. Not sure what your real beef is.

Have another great season!

VegasJason - you come across to this forum as knowledgeable, but immature.    if you keep this up, people will start ignoring you.    if you don't care, then that's fine.   the whole purpose for posting on forums is to refine your picks, and make better decisions, not to tout a slate of games, and somehow insult people when they tell you that they disagree.    i have seen you disrespect NOS, BA, and myself and probably others in a relatively short amount of time.   you can disagree with people, respectfully, but, if you utilize insulting terms like BookieAss for BA,  who is highly respected here, then you will alienate those who you seem to be trying to influence.   we are to refine our picks, to avoid pitfalls, and to hopefully with skill and some luck beat the books.   those who come across as touts, or who are pretentious, or disrespectful to fellow posters will lose cred fast.     and that, in my opinion, defeats the whole purpose for posting here on covers in the first place.  

Cheers Nos! Can't wait for Week 1! Longhorn what's up man? Good to see everyone getting set for a good season

VERY WELL SAID LONGHORN