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    All Forums | College Football

    nostradamus week 1

    «First Previous 123456 Next Last»
    bozotheclown
    VEGASJASON
    LonghornHoosier
    bookieassassin
    hammeratl
    ...
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    Views: 20040
    Posts: 138
    «First Previous 123456 Next Last»
     
    bozotheclown
    bozotheclown
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    Posted: Jul. 25, 2016 - 4:22 PM ET #26

    Good luck to you this season.Always look forward  to your picks.
    Reply
    Good luck to you this season.Always look forward  to your picks.
     
    VEGASJASON
    VEGASJASON
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    Posted: Jul. 25, 2016 - 5:50 PM ET #27

    Niostramadus You seem to be a very respected capper on this site. I have started to come around on your way of thinking on the Florida game. Disagree strongly on the LSU-Wisconsin game. Love the Tigers in that one.Otherwise I love Toledo, Ball St, WKU some of those low radar games. I have discussed to death that Clemson-Auburn. I think people are trying to project reasons out for Auburn staying close rather that just analyzing the actual history of the players who are playing. Clemson has mind boggling offensive talent.
    Reply
    Niostramadus You seem to be a very respected capper on this site. I have started to come around on your way of thinking on the Florida game. Disagree strongly on the LSU-Wisconsin game. Love the Tigers in that one.Otherwise I love Toledo, Ball St, WKU some of those low radar games. I have discussed to death that Clemson-Auburn. I think people are trying to project reasons out for Auburn staying close rather that just analyzing the actual history of the players who are playing. Clemson has mind boggling offensive talent.
     
    LonghornHoosier
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    Posted: Jul. 26, 2016 - 12:42 AM ET #28

    Dude, VegasJason...That is an SEC West Defense in Auburn...Yes, Steele is new and honestly that great...Yes, Clemson has a big advantage at QB...but, that is it...Malzahn is on the hot seat, and he will motivate his players to fight hard...You seem to think Clemson will roll into Auburn and blow them out...I think Clemson may indeed win, but they will have to earn it...as you have done in your research, there are at least 10 games that have more predictability than this...Watson has made his reputation in the ACC, which is not the SEC West...I am not Auburn nor am I on Clemson...This will be a big time no play.for me..
    LonghornHoosier
    Reply
    Dude, VegasJason...That is an SEC West Defense in Auburn...Yes, Steele is new and honestly that great...Yes, Clemson has a big advantage at QB...but, that is it...Malzahn is on the hot seat, and he will motivate his players to fight hard...You seem to think Clemson will roll into Auburn and blow them out...I think Clemson may indeed win, but they will have to earn it...as you have done in your research, there are at least 10 games that have more predictability than this...Watson has made his reputation in the ACC, which is not the SEC West...I am not Auburn nor am I on Clemson...This will be a big time no play.for me..
     
    bookieassassin
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    Posted: Jul. 26, 2016 - 1:01 AM ET #29

    There he is..............

    Lines came out WAY too early for me.....several of those would be my early leans as well.....all the best this year buddy........... 

    It is better to be feared - than to be loved.
    Reply
    There he is..............

    Lines came out WAY too early for me.....several of those would be my early leans as well.....all the best this year buddy........... 

     
    LonghornHoosier
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    Posted: Jul. 26, 2016 - 1:16 AM ET #30

    So BA...good to see you...when will you be posting your week 1 leans?   Look forward to it...I think you characterized me during the last season or two as "beat the hell out of them square LHH" ...I have done quite well, and look to continue...Will still focus on favorites, but always looking for value...what the heck happened to my mentor Wise?     Cheers
    LonghornHoosier
    Reply
    So BA...good to see you...when will you be posting your week 1 leans?   Look forward to it...I think you characterized me during the last season or two as "beat the hell out of them square LHH" ...I have done quite well, and look to continue...Will still focus on favorites, but always looking for value...what the heck happened to my mentor Wise?     Cheers
     
    bookieassassin
    bookieassassin
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    Posted: Jul. 26, 2016 - 1:07 PM ET #31

    Quote Originally Posted by LonghornHoosier:

    So BA...good to see you...when will you be posting your week 1 leans?   Look forward to it...I think you characterized me during the last season or two as "beat the hell out of them square LHH" ...I have done quite well, and look to continue...Will still focus on favorites, but always looking for value...what the heck happened to my mentor Wise?     Cheers


    .......a good man that (seems) to search only for blow-outs.....disregarding Value.....maybe more like it
      *but yep you seem to have a good feel for which teams to play and WHEN to do it > all that matters.....

    Wise is in that Covers graveyard with most that disappear....Boom .....capping diva JTF  >> CTG   
    It is better to be feared - than to be loved.
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by LonghornHoosier:

    So BA...good to see you...when will you be posting your week 1 leans?   Look forward to it...I think you characterized me during the last season or two as "beat the hell out of them square LHH" ...I have done quite well, and look to continue...Will still focus on favorites, but always looking for value...what the heck happened to my mentor Wise?     Cheers


    .......a good man that (seems) to search only for blow-outs.....disregarding Value.....maybe more like it
      *but yep you seem to have a good feel for which teams to play and WHEN to do it > all that matters.....

    Wise is in that Covers graveyard with most that disappear....Boom .....capping diva JTF  >> CTG   
     
    VEGASJASON
    VEGASJASON
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    Posted: Jul. 26, 2016 - 1:12 PM ET #32

    Auburn played to an average game score of 64 last season on the ESPN FPI, Clemson averaged 84, not sure besides home field whats the belief in Auburn? I do not think Auburn will in week 1 of the season will have closed that gap to justify a line of only 7.5!
    Reply
    Auburn played to an average game score of 64 last season on the ESPN FPI, Clemson averaged 84, not sure besides home field whats the belief in Auburn? I do not think Auburn will in week 1 of the season will have closed that gap to justify a line of only 7.5!
     
    bookieassassin
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    Posted: Jul. 26, 2016 - 1:21 PM ET #33

    not referring to you LH

    I ALWAYS....call out guys for going BEYOND a simple recommendation..........trying to be a freakin' BIG SHOT
      *eg  IF......you like Texas week 1.....give SOLID reasons WHY.....for BOTH sides of the play > MOVE ON TO THE NEXT ONE
         ***IF....you go on and on....telling us how you just know Texas is gonnakillem'.....and win the game outright!!!!!.....well then... this to me (and most thinking people) suggests you have emotional issues...that need resolving OUTSIDE of a WAGERING FORUM

    EVER see my man Nostradamus doing that kinda crap?
      *then threatening to leave Covers?.....to make side bets with other posters to show he's a real man wtf?....

    WHY HELLL NO.....his plays/advice do it for him....there is no need........
    It is better to be feared - than to be loved.
    Reply
    not referring to you LH

    I ALWAYS....call out guys for going BEYOND a simple recommendation..........trying to be a freakin' BIG SHOT
      *eg  IF......you like Texas week 1.....give SOLID reasons WHY.....for BOTH sides of the play > MOVE ON TO THE NEXT ONE
         ***IF....you go on and on....telling us how you just know Texas is gonnakillem'.....and win the game outright!!!!!.....well then... this to me (and most thinking people) suggests you have emotional issues...that need resolving OUTSIDE of a WAGERING FORUM

    EVER see my man Nostradamus doing that kinda crap?
      *then threatening to leave Covers?.....to make side bets with other posters to show he's a real man wtf?....

    WHY HELLL NO.....his plays/advice do it for him....there is no need........
     
    VEGASJASON
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    Posted: Jul. 26, 2016 - 1:35 PM ET #34

    I am 100% with you on the Texas is gonna kill them, well why? Just cause ND sucks. That stupid sports talk garbage. Nostradamus is a reasoned capper, however most people on here just do not desire to make the endless futures bets he does. If your such a good capper as to find advantages in futures bets your certainly good enough to just find advantages in game bets week to week, and probably good enough to do well betting halftimes. 
    Reply
    I am 100% with you on the Texas is gonna kill them, well why? Just cause ND sucks. That stupid sports talk garbage. Nostradamus is a reasoned capper, however most people on here just do not desire to make the endless futures bets he does. If your such a good capper as to find advantages in futures bets your certainly good enough to just find advantages in game bets week to week, and probably good enough to do well betting halftimes. 
     
    VEGASJASON
    VEGASJASON
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    Posted: Jul. 26, 2016 - 1:41 PM ET #35

    One other note, I do support using free play money on futures. I use Bookmaker and BetDsi, 5dimes, I participate in the contest win streaks that give you free plays. I usually use the freeplays for parlays, but on occasion I will use them for futures. Last year for instance I had a bought an in season future on Baylor winning the national title at I think 20-1 on a 100 free play.
    Reply
    One other note, I do support using free play money on futures. I use Bookmaker and BetDsi, 5dimes, I participate in the contest win streaks that give you free plays. I usually use the freeplays for parlays, but on occasion I will use them for futures. Last year for instance I had a bought an in season future on Baylor winning the national title at I think 20-1 on a 100 free play.
     
    hammeratl
    hammeratl
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    Posted: Jul. 27, 2016 - 12:08 AM ET #36

    Quote Originally Posted by VEGASJASON:

    Niostramadus You seem to be a very respected capper on this site. I have started to come around on your way of thinking on the Florida game. Disagree strongly on the LSU-Wisconsin game. Love the Tigers in that one.Otherwise I love Toledo, Ball St, WKU some of those low radar games. I have discussed to death that Clemson-Auburn. I think people are trying to project reasons out for Auburn staying close rather that just analyzing the actual history of the players who are playing. Clemson has mind boggling offensive talent.

    I have to agree here. Mike Williams is a beast. Artavis Scott is a beast. Deion Caine beast. The tight end and Renfrow are good enough to star for most teams and Gallman plus No.4 makes it an embarrassment of riches. How is Auburn going to stop them? Kevin Steele is a joke. He was awful at Clem and awful at LSU. Clem is young in secondary but there is talent there. The front 7 is NASTY again. The DTs are going to eat Auburn for breakfast....remember the name Dexter Lawrence. This game shouldn't be less than 17 pts. Clemson rolls.
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by VEGASJASON:

    Niostramadus You seem to be a very respected capper on this site. I have started to come around on your way of thinking on the Florida game. Disagree strongly on the LSU-Wisconsin game. Love the Tigers in that one.Otherwise I love Toledo, Ball St, WKU some of those low radar games. I have discussed to death that Clemson-Auburn. I think people are trying to project reasons out for Auburn staying close rather that just analyzing the actual history of the players who are playing. Clemson has mind boggling offensive talent.

    I have to agree here. Mike Williams is a beast. Artavis Scott is a beast. Deion Caine beast. The tight end and Renfrow are good enough to star for most teams and Gallman plus No.4 makes it an embarrassment of riches. How is Auburn going to stop them? Kevin Steele is a joke. He was awful at Clem and awful at LSU. Clem is young in secondary but there is talent there. The front 7 is NASTY again. The DTs are going to eat Auburn for breakfast....remember the name Dexter Lawrence. This game shouldn't be less than 17 pts. Clemson rolls.
     
    hammeratl
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    Posted: Jul. 27, 2016 - 12:16 AM ET #37

    I really like the Wku, penn st and Toledo picks. Love Clemson too. Really looking at BYU +1 against Arizona. BYU plays well on the road and they have a lot of offense. Any thoughts on this one?
    Reply
    I really like the Wku, penn st and Toledo picks. Love Clemson too. Really looking at BYU +1 against Arizona. BYU plays well on the road and they have a lot of offense. Any thoughts on this one?
     
    VEGASJASON
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    Posted: Jul. 27, 2016 - 12:42 AM ET #38

    Hammer Time! Yes I agree on Kevin Steele, he was also at Baylor. Yes we all know Dexter Lawrence will be great, not sure he will be a beast in game 1.  I have been pulling my hair out trying to convince people on Clemson in this forum. You had a great summary of the reasons. The contrarian in me loves when this board is full of people on the opposite side. My theory goes like this, if everyone on here agrees on my side, what does "Vegas know" that we are missing. When I see the opposite, I feel like maybe I am the one seeing something that they are not.
    Reply
    Hammer Time! Yes I agree on Kevin Steele, he was also at Baylor. Yes we all know Dexter Lawrence will be great, not sure he will be a beast in game 1.  I have been pulling my hair out trying to convince people on Clemson in this forum. You had a great summary of the reasons. The contrarian in me loves when this board is full of people on the opposite side. My theory goes like this, if everyone on here agrees on my side, what does "Vegas know" that we are missing. When I see the opposite, I feel like maybe I am the one seeing something that they are not.
     
    VEGASJASON
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    Posted: Jul. 27, 2016 - 12:43 AM ET #39

    One question for you did you watch much Clemson last season, why was Artavis Scott per catch average so low? Was it the way they used him?
    Reply
    One question for you did you watch much Clemson last season, why was Artavis Scott per catch average so low? Was it the way they used him?
     
    VEGASJASON
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    Posted: Jul. 27, 2016 - 12:48 AM ET #40

    I think I'm sitting out the Arizona-Byu game. I have had some back and forth with myself on that game. LOL My critiques might point out I only take favorites, so of course I can't pick a game that is a pickem!
    Reply
    I think I'm sitting out the Arizona-Byu game. I have had some back and forth with myself on that game. LOL My critiques might point out I only take favorites, so of course I can't pick a game that is a pickem!
     
    VEGASJASON
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    Posted: Jul. 27, 2016 - 12:49 AM ET #41

    Critics not critiques.
    Reply
    Critics not critiques.
     
    VEGASJASON
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    Posted: Jul. 27, 2016 - 1:04 AM ET #42

    I listened to a Clemson podcast. They talked up Mike Williams "huge" (Sorry Bernie had to steal it). They also talked up Jordan Leggett and 2 of the new offensive lineman. I forgot which assistant coaches. Yes I know they are coaches and coaches for the most part take a positive outlook. One of my 6 team parlays using freeplay money on new sports book deposits for week 1 will be
    1 OU -9.5
    2 Clemson -7
    3 Lsu -9.5
    4 Stanford -16
    5 WKU -15
    6 Indiana -8


    Reply
    I listened to a Clemson podcast. They talked up Mike Williams "huge" (Sorry Bernie had to steal it). They also talked up Jordan Leggett and 2 of the new offensive lineman. I forgot which assistant coaches. Yes I know they are coaches and coaches for the most part take a positive outlook. One of my 6 team parlays using freeplay money on new sports book deposits for week 1 will be
    1 OU -9.5
    2 Clemson -7
    3 Lsu -9.5
    4 Stanford -16
    5 WKU -15
    6 Indiana -8


     
    vegasroy
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    Posted: Jul. 27, 2016 - 7:55 AM ET #43

    like penn st boise st. will bet both teams here in sin city
    Reply
    like penn st boise st. will bet both teams here in sin city
     
    VEGASJASON
    VEGASJASON
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    Posts: 1063
    Posted: Jul. 27, 2016 - 11:42 AM ET #44

    Vegasroy have yet to make a decision on those games. You have some reasons to share?
    Reply
    Vegasroy have yet to make a decision on those games. You have some reasons to share?
     
    bookieassassin
    bookieassassin
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    Posted: Jul. 27, 2016 - 4:27 PM ET #45

    Quote Originally Posted by VEGASJASON:

    One question for you did you watch much Clemson last season, why was Artavis Scott per catch average so low? Was it the way they used him?


    Confusing.....because technically he ain't the SLOT (#5 WR) of course (short white guy Renfrow is).....he's the FIELD (#2 / wide side of field to work with)....with no deep threat LY (after losing Williams and Cain)....you would think he might have filled that role...but evidently he was so valuable running UNDERNEATH / HORIZONTAL stuff....they decided not to change things...with the return of Williams (boundary / #9 WR) to stretch the field VERTICALLY.... they should be very tough to contain....plus throwing Cain in the mix now and Thompson 
      note:  recall the popular JET SWEEP (tossing the ball instead of handing it off).....is counted as a PASS play...not a run....so be aware of inflated QB stats....and deflated WR stats.....like Scott's .........
    It is better to be feared - than to be loved.
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by VEGASJASON:

    One question for you did you watch much Clemson last season, why was Artavis Scott per catch average so low? Was it the way they used him?


    Confusing.....because technically he ain't the SLOT (#5 WR) of course (short white guy Renfrow is).....he's the FIELD (#2 / wide side of field to work with)....with no deep threat LY (after losing Williams and Cain)....you would think he might have filled that role...but evidently he was so valuable running UNDERNEATH / HORIZONTAL stuff....they decided not to change things...with the return of Williams (boundary / #9 WR) to stretch the field VERTICALLY.... they should be very tough to contain....plus throwing Cain in the mix now and Thompson 
      note:  recall the popular JET SWEEP (tossing the ball instead of handing it off).....is counted as a PASS play...not a run....so be aware of inflated QB stats....and deflated WR stats.....like Scott's .........
     
    jake5
    jake5
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    Posts: 8
    Posted: Jul. 27, 2016 - 9:08 PM ET #46

    Hello everyone. Im new to covers but wanted to get involved in the community.

    Two overs i like week one are :
    South Carolina over Vandy +3
    SMU over North Texas -12 

    Thoughts anyone?
    Reply
    Hello everyone. Im new to covers but wanted to get involved in the community.

    Two overs i like week one are :
    South Carolina over Vandy +3
    SMU over North Texas -12 

    Thoughts anyone?
     
    VEGASJASON
    VEGASJASON
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    Posted: Jul. 27, 2016 - 9:25 PM ET #47

    Not sure what your saying Bookie? Your point on Scott is that he is better than the per catch average because the used him toss sweep type plays? What are you referencing on inflated QB stats?
    Reply
    Not sure what your saying Bookie? Your point on Scott is that he is better than the per catch average because the used him toss sweep type plays? What are you referencing on inflated QB stats?
     
    VEGASJASON
    VEGASJASON
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    Posts: 1063
    Posted: Jul. 27, 2016 - 9:27 PM ET #48

    Bookie are you backing Clemson over Auburn?
    Reply
    Bookie are you backing Clemson over Auburn?
     
    VEGASJASON
    VEGASJASON
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    Posts: 1063
    Posted: Jul. 27, 2016 - 9:32 PM ET #49

    Jake5 I have written on both those games. I am on SMU big time and also Vandy. SC is going to be shockingly bad in my opinion this year. Spurrier jumped ship with the knowledge it was going down.
    Reply
    Jake5 I have written on both those games. I am on SMU big time and also Vandy. SC is going to be shockingly bad in my opinion this year. Spurrier jumped ship with the knowledge it was going down.
     
     
    TD21
    TD21
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    Posts: 5399
    Posted: Jul. 27, 2016 - 10:06 PM ET #50

    Quote Originally Posted by VEGASJASON:

    Not sure what your saying Bookie? Your point on Scott is that he is better than the per catch average because the used him toss sweep type plays? What are you referencing on inflated QB stats?

    Here's a good example of the inflated QB stats running this Bob Stitt fly sweep.  4 TD passes shown at the end of the video.

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=0TxW-2DhGgk

    TD
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by VEGASJASON:

    Not sure what your saying Bookie? Your point on Scott is that he is better than the per catch average because the used him toss sweep type plays? What are you referencing on inflated QB stats?

    Here's a good example of the inflated QB stats running this Bob Stitt fly sweep.  4 TD passes shown at the end of the video.

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=0TxW-2DhGgk

    TD
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