nostradamus week 1

Still not sure where your going with this Bookie. We all know a wide variety of things effect QB stats?

The same QB playing at Baylor last season would have much better stats then the same QB playing at Kansas. Stats still give insight though on production level. 

Seriously?.....you don't understand how essentially HANDING a guy the ball in the BACKFIELD......can increase the QB's pass %....and DECREASE the WR's yards per catch?
HINT:  it's a 3 yard soft toss that is (usually) not defended......so team that runs it a bunch a 50% passer can look like a 65% passer

Scott runs this a bunch along with a lot of screens.....
 *THEREFORE his yards/catch is gonna be much lower than most everybody else............WTF

I understand you're here to promote yourself ....and your website along with associated unnamed other touts......that you 'don't want to tell us about'......and remind us of your 500K or more bankroll.....that you 'didn't want to mention'....
  *but GD son learn a little football whydontcha..........

I think it's funny BTW.....so far you appear a solid contributor..........

gl this season

jake5 I like smu. I like the under in vandy v USC. Vandy good d no off. USC rebuilding. I like over in Indiana v FAU. Ga st over ball st. Penn st. Toledo. Clemson. Byu. Tenn. Maybe w va over Missouri. Maybe wash over Rutgers. Maybe tam over UCLA.

Bookie was that post about me or someone else? The tout and website stuff?

(BOOKIEASS) Just to clarify I have never said anything about my bankroll, I explained the method I take to formulating my bets. I am not promoting another website. I explained I use the same 5* down to 1* as the site that I use as my other source for picks. Your argument about passing stats seems silly. I think YPA and YPC and YP carry are all relevant stats. I would never tell a person not to further analyze stats in context of teammates , competition, games that they put up those stats. I am on this site simply for the give and take of discussion on games I attend to bet, and others I am considering. I also engage in discussions about teasers and parlays and futures (just because I hate to see people making poor wagers not understanding the math)!

Your argument about passing stats seems silly



1)  yes I am the idiot for taking THIS much time with you 
         *someone who uses ATHLON and ESPN FPI.....mostly

2)  you asked why Scott's yards/catch is so low
        *not only did I answer the question (not bad BTW) I explained the nature of his ROLE in the Clemson O / along with how they use and number their WR's

3)  maybe SOBER up before posting maybe?
        SHORTER passes >
               * higher completion % for the QB.....like Wazzu
                 Leach  likes to stretch the field HORIZONTALLY
                *lower yards/catch for WR....AND if that WR is used
                 for a lotta screen passes..and jet sweeps (both at or
                   behind the LOS (line of scrimmage).....well then
                  his yards/catch might be REALLY low (Scott)
        LONGER passes >
                *for teams that like a VERTICAL stretch (mainly /
                 like Fla St and a few others)....lead to the opposite
                      *most teams do both of course (in theory)
                        Baylor stretches the D out thru alignment
                        (horizontally).....and also (because OL can hold
                        the rush off / WR can run)...stress the D
                        vertically in a BIG way....opening up the run /
                        underneath stuff....

      note:  this is how a dumbazz country boy like Briles
      found himself the CEO of a multi-million $ 'corporation'
          *a job he wasn't ready for  




ANYONE.....who has had several GF at the same time
   *knows you gotta remember the same lies....another skill you lack..............


one thread.....
Right now I have a combined 1650-1500 bet on Minnesota, will likely have up to win 8,000 or 10,000 at game time. > suggesting a 200-250K roll

another.....
It will be based off a starting bank roll of 5,000 > by the time Minny plays the Beavs......you will have increased your roll by over 200K?.....pretty damm sharp capping there VJ




I'm ordering a BREATHALYZER....installed on your keyboard pal.....sorry..........

Correct you said 500,000 bankroll. I actually do not use a dedicated bankroll, I take money in and out of my stock investment as needed. Not sure what your issue is with me BookieAss. Everyone seems to respect you as a capper on here. I am on here for open minded discussion. If people have reason to disagree with my analysis of a game, or on general betting strategy I am happy to listen them. I am not on here promoting anything about my picks. I give out my reasons and my picks and thats it. Over the course of the season people are free to criticize or praise my picks as they warrant. 

I use 5 magazines and a host of online sites. I quote Athlons because its the easiest for stats and unit rankings. That is not to say I agree with every unit ranking of Athlons. Should everyone just quote themselves? Like all the people on here that makeup their own power rankings?

Finally BookieASS do you have some huge issue with my top 10

Isn't this Nos' string...

Longhorn I thought we agreed on more games than that. I asked the question to BookieAss though? LonghornHoosier , I am 100% Texas Longhorn fan, but I do not mind betting against them. I keep the same rules on all my favorite teams , Dallas Cowboys, Texas Rangers , Dallas Mavericks, Texas Longhorns football and hoops. I will never make large wagers on my favorite teams, I will sometimes make large wagers against them. I have done pretty well with this strategy over the last 10 years. In case of the Cowboys and Longhorns for instance, I have done well betting on them versus certain pass offenses I did not see them keeping up with. In this case my reason for betting against Texas is I do not see them moving the ball at all through the air, and only marginally on the ground versus ND. I will say I was stung big time in the wins over OU and Baylor last season. I did clean up on most of the rest of the Longhorn big game losses the last few years.

I know you addressed it to BA.  This was for free.   If I were you, I would just take what BA says, and respectfully disagree.   The guy finds every trend on the planet.   If you ask him a trend, for example UT-Austin record ATS last 5 years for Saturday night at home, he can get you the info.   Everyone has their own angle.   What I would recommend you do is create one string with your Name on the subject Line, and say Leans - Week 1, 2016.  Post your leans, ask for feedback.    That's what I do.      Normally, when you don't get a lot of feedback, people agree with you.   Or they will give you a good luck emoji.     The fact that I agree with you on OU, Stan, and WK (with a caveat)  should demonstrate a secondary validation for you.   But, as you know, since it appears that you have been doing this for a while, you have to do your research, validate, reconfirm, follow local reporters for the teams you follow/like (ie local publications), you may get a tidbit of info, that can confirm your picks, or keep you away from bad ones.   As my mentors (NOS, Wise, BA, Double, et al) its all about value.    Finally, as the season approaches, every hack capper on the planet will be posting their BS picks.   Personally, I think the sportsbooks (Vegas and offshore), pay bloggers to post misinformation on these free sites.    You have to decifer between the BS and the legit cappers.      If you send me a friend request, I will give you my leans, if you are interested.  I am just not ready to post now.   Final thought, respect people like BA, even if he sometimes bust your chops.  He and other good cappers may help you during the season, and if you are willing to listen, it could incrementally profitable for you.     

I dont have any issue with BA and the research and trends that he puts in. I am not a trend guy usually, but whatever his approach is no matter to me. I will have one thread that I post my weekly 20 picks every Thursday morning/afternoon .  4 5*s down to 4 1*s. As for your theory on paid bloggers and pickers and what not ( I am not a conspiracy guy) My thoughts are I just dont see it actually working. I do not see people betting huge money based on some ones post on here, unless that person has built up credibility with a good record. As I have stated though I take this forum as a place for discussion not as a base to follow others blindly for wagering.  I will say this forum has warmed my opinion on Penn St and Florida, it has also softened my support for Vandy. 

I've been on Covers couple of years now. Not a serious player and certainly not as knowledgeable as some on here. Really enjoy reading and learning from the respected folks on this forum. Every once in awhile I'll throw in my two cents for what it's worth. 

I will/would NEVER refer to the respected elders of this sight as BOOKIEASS or Bookieass. And you expect a reply? You expect any respect from the rest of the folks on here who KNOW who the RESPECTED leaders of this sight are?

 

Nos, thank you for posting your early combo's!!

 

Seriously respected elders? First no one has told me BookieAssasians age 2nd its shorthand, 3rd he made up statements about my bankroll. Seriously people call me VJ in the other threads, I dont spend lots of time worrying shorthands.

VegasJason - you will find out.   And if you continue to tout your top 10, and you go say 4-6 ATS in week 1, you will lose all cred. at lease with the serious cappers on this site (non action junkies)   If you don't care then that's fine.   

what the hell's been going on here fellas .....BOL thanks for the thoughts and info and BA and LH for carrying things  

doc - how's it going bud...good thought on the Toledo suspensions...first 2 games loss of Coleman will hurt and Moore some possibly too, BOL this season

wahoo - original large money man...looking forward to your picks my friend and firing some on Sun night openers....much respect and BOL this season 

bening - agree on Miami and Richt......we'll have our eye on them for some spots this year, GL man

LH - counting on UF offense operating at a 45-55 point level laying that kind of wood....they've done pretty well against weaker defenses at times and overall looking for improvement, looking forward to the insights, BOL bud

vegasjason -  let's keep the non football comments out....over the years there hasn't been much and vets just want to exchange insights and info and make cash....agree as noted that going against Clemson is not our favorite spot....so it's a small play...if Auburn gets something out of QBs....running game (incl QB) could work against Clemson defense with some losses and known to give up some rushing yds against stronger teams....Auburn defense at home will do well to keep them around 30 so the offense will need some.

bookie...simply the best source of info on covers and great handicapping angles over the years....glad to say our handicapping styles are very similar...4 weeks to go..can't wait,..agree on the ridiculously early numbers.... best of luck this season buddy

hammer - BYU-AZ is a tough one for me....both offenses could result in pretty much of a shootout in 30-40's toss up, GL either way

jake - lean towards SC +3 with both teams probably in the teens or lower 20's so also interested in possible under....not much lean on SMU-UNT, GL

random thought......always surprised other than a few vets how little people go the opposite of regression to the mean....say you have a long term 57-58% capper and they start week 1 going 5-7.....many run for the exits when in reality that's the time to give more weight to winning in the following weeks when odds are they'll end up say 40-30 over time....same goes for a long term 50% capper starting 10-2 and everyone jumps on and they're 30-30 by the end of Sept and pissed off at the person...as the great Dennis Green said they are who we thought they were and it works both ways

adding small play.....

Indiana -8 (0.5)

Indiana 37 FIU 21...have to admit we haven't had the Hoosiers for money many (ok probably any) times over the years...fortunately in most ATS years...... obvious big question for IU is QB...watched some tape of Lagow this morning and looks good enough to operate within the system even though not at Sudfeld's level....quality RBs and WRs should make things easier.....tough to see them not putting up some points.....whether their defense improves is questionable but give the new DC and returning back 7 a chance and FIU did most of it's damage against even weaker defenses....keeping small given the questions at QB and how much the defense will improve

should probably do it other than checking out some totals and FCS-FBS matchups in a couple weeks, later fellas

 

 

 

 

 

how often people go against or ignore regression to the mean that is

additional things we like about IU-FIU matchup......OL size and talent vs. DL and WRs against inexperienced and thin FIU CBs

thanks NOS...like I referenced, I was at Indiana v. Duke Pinstripe Bowl in the Bronx.  It was a heartbreaking loss in OT.   Sudfeld was the real deal.   That IU D continues to be terrible, but in Wilson's 6th year, hopefully, the D will improve and he can re-load.  I think, the heartbreaking loss will be a motivation for IU to play harder from the getgo.  Still, since I have an alumnus and a fan of my Hoosiers, I will probably still pass ATS.     I will post my plays in a week or two.    Cheers LHH

Let me ask what is the logic behind regression to the mean? Every event is an independent variable in my opinion. If you flip a coin and its head 10 times in a row. Are you going to bet extra juice on it being tales on the next flip? on a regression to the mean  premise? Otherwise I agree with your IU analysis. A person that goes 10-2 posting on here and then end ups 30-30 is not regressing to a mean, they are having 2 independent events occurring.