needsome 
that mich st game finished the initial research still need to decide should post soon !
sportsM62 
I hear what you are saying. No doubt Miss St can cover. As far as LSU not playing goes - Just my 2 cents b/c I cant argue your point - but 1) LSU did get some work in (11 plays better than nothing) kept practicing and should be nice and fresh 2) this fact is already baked into the pointspread imo....Let's just say LSU came out and hammered McNeese last wk - likely - the spread would have been a bit higher IMO just based on perception since people would just see a big score up there McNeese or not. Maybe it would have opened -4 or -5 instead of -3ish...-3 is a very key number. GL !
. cincy is giving less than a td right now and beat them last year at temple 14-6. kiel had this to say about that game.... "First off, I played awful," Kiel said. "I played so bad, probably one of the worst games of my life. Nothing was clicking. I was young. I wasn't seeing the defense they were in. I played awful. I played timid." .....
sicko!!! as always love and appreciate the time and effort put into your write ups.. I'd like to hit up the request line and touch on the ball st +30 @ A&M? has ball st fallin off that much? 
thanks everyone
Rockytop - I have to take a look at that game yet. I have the Sooners rated higher than most I think but also really developing an unnatural man crush 
on those Vols since last yr they have some exciting young talent....Gut feel now its a tossup but have nothing else to base that opinion on yet - GL !
puffkit - I agree with your take on Cincy - potential big letdown spot for Temple so while I have not looked at that one in detail yet either - I will not be on temple.....Laying 7 against that D ? dunno.....You make a good point that CROWD WILL BE ROCKING GUY will be all over that Cincy play in the expanded stadium debut....makes us worry - just like CROWD WILL BE ROCKING GUY was all over Va Tech vs Ohio St like fans have even scored a TD - somehow reigning champs were gonna soil themselves and suck on the nearest titty.....Maybe ML parlay Cincy SU win with another decent fav you like ? GL
UGA Tex AM is freaking good no way we are gonna play Ball ST even tho we see a bit of value - have the fair line closer to 24-25 range.....Ball is actually an ATS weasel this yr in our view but on road at AM just cannot do it - GL !.......UCF stands for University of Central Florida - Also - Underdogs Cover Frequently
mega
awesome
Ya we do lean under but as you may know - any NCAA total that low usually does not make our card unless we have at least 3-4 games worth of watching the teams play ya know? I mean I have no idea how bad UCF D is they could give up 30 even to Stanford and Stanford didn't look that great either.....under is the play but do not think we are adding it to our card - we try and be selective and a number that low in NCAA wk 2 we are just not man enough
next play
FIU / Indiana over 55 (B-365)
write-up next
Money making freak DavidN
alerted us to this game. We likey.
Indiana and S Illinois went up and down the field last wk in a 48-47 game with over 1200 yds of offense.....Indiana D looks just as bad as the last couple of years - maybe even worse without potential-NFL-DB-according-to-Steele-but-caught-drug-dealing-on-way-to-federal-pound-me-in-the-azz-prison-guy Antonio Allen...along with just a total lack of effort and talent....now they had some suspended players that game and most will be back this week - but is that good or bad? from reading the Indiana chatter looks like another yr of 67-64 shootouts and frankly if im an Indiana fan who cares short term because you need to win the way you can and that is fun and gun and play insulting defense....still many winnable games on their schedule...QB Sudfeld is solid and have a nice running game - FIU have up 249 to a very avg Holman last wk and this wk will face a completely different animal on offense and may even have a bit of a letdown early after that huge win over UCF....a 25682058234905823459023485903 star MEGALOCKS winner.....McGough looked very good last wk vs UCF on the road expect him to MATRICULATE in the passing game off of play action as Alex Gardner did a nice job running - and receiving....Owens caught 11....A Jones is a TD just waiting to happen - and they still have stud TE J Smith. We see a high tempo game and at least one team getting into the mid-30s.
mega
Ok guys. Sometimes you make this WAY too complicated. 
Every sports wager of any kind on any sport involves YOU deciding if you have an edge on the vegas line - enough of an edge to at least break even in the long run. For ex - 52.38% at odds of -110. ANY WAGER on ANY FORUM - you could ask somebody - hey why are you making that bet ? You think Vegas is stupid ? Guys. The whole idea of what we are doing is coming up with OPINIONS and if strong enough - wagering on our OPINION against the Vegas line. If we are wrong? It happens - move on. Next game. If you are consistently wrong you will not be doing this very long.
Miss St can cover this game. No question. At home. Better QB. They beat them last yr. LSU didn't play last wk. There. Great reasons to play Miss St. Our numbers show LSU as a play at -3 and we like their upside and think there may be downside to Miss St. If we are wrong - it happens - congrats to Miss St - learn move on. We can't promise anybody a win on LSU. At -3 it was a play to us. It even tickled down to -2.5. Now we see -5 out there.
If Miss St does cover - it is not because of Bigfoot or UFOs or sharp-unreversed-trap lines. We would have simply made a bad pick and "lost to Vegas" on this particular game. That is part of the fun.
A final note to all the young Sparkies out there about "opening numbers". Check out betonline around 1pm sunday. The lines that "open" are OFTEN very different than the official "open" you see. We write down the first number we see on every game. Did you know that Mich St was a pick em ? then moved quickly -1 -2 -3. Does that mean anyone who bets Mich St at -3 or higher is gonna lose because VEGAS is so smart and the real line is pick em ?? You could say this about so many games it makes my head hurt. 
On to the games guys. If you wanna talk theory - send me a PM - we keep our sanity around here by not getting into that because there is no changing minds - and that is fine - we all have different takes on this stuff. mega
Michigan St 3.5 Oregon (67)
Megalocks line -3
As noted in our post above - there was an instance for an EARLY taster of Mich St pk or -1 for a couple minutes on Sunday right after the game was released - and if we were on the ball we would have played them at pk up to -2....However as you guys may remember - we were at an awesome wedding Saturday 
and are still trying to get caught up from missed time and boxscore review - so we hummed and hawed and thought about it - then boom it is -3. No bet for us at this number it feels right. Slight lean to the over but gonna just enjoy this one I think.
One thing we will note. I don't know where all this Sparty has the best D in history crap is coming from - and we LOVE Sparty football I mean we almost never bet against them to a fault - but they gave up over 20 pts a game last year - and they are missing a lot of good players from last yr D including hurt LB Davis and some nice DBs....Yes they will be good again - and maybe at some point very good but what the SAM HILL are we talking about ? Oregon is not going to move the ball? that QB is a freak and to us they are gonna score some....would lean to the coaching and QB play on Mich St to do the right thing when it matters but would not be jumping #ballsdeep at -4 or higher but that is just us.
And yes. We know CROWD WILL BE ROCKING GUY the money making machine will be coming back from Virginia Tech 
UCF Arizona and Boise
summary - no leanage at these numbers.
mega
Rutgers -2 Wash St (62)
Megalocks line 3
Gotta love those crazy Vikings of Portland St. Won their first game vs a PAC 12 opponent last wk 24-17 over Wash St - Frankly the win not a huge surprise Wash St capable of anything - but the low score is strange we did not dig into this one that much but basically 700Y combined and Wash St QB got less than 300Y? seemed like he played ok then FR came in late - maybe there was an injury will look into that at a later date- - point is we have the fair line right around here and no way touching Wash St.....Now the one interesting thing is that if they want to be bowl eligible playing a PAC 12 schedule they better win this game or the entire season could go #downtheShitter real fast....
Rutgers. What can you say? The entire secondary went Breaking Bad in the offseason so many guys kicked off the team I mean WTF is going on - we just scanned some stories - armed robbery...assault.....gunpoint fun.....academic tampering? 
well done guys proud of you....Well all those fiascos and the usually Rutgers BS on the injury reports that we noted last yr - literally 1/3 of the team is listed on it and who knows what team they are gonna field and who is gonna cover the Wash St receivers....Rutgers did pound Norfolk (another job well done) but we have zero clue what to make of this one....Other than maybe during the game some Rutgers players will rob fans and fire a bazooka at the Wash St sideline. All in good fun of course.
summary. NO.
mega
needsome that mich st game finished the initial research still need to decide should post soon !
sportsM62 I hear what you are saying. No doubt Miss St can cover. As far as LSU not playing goes - Just my 2 cents b/c I cant argue your point - but 1) LSU did get some work in (11 plays better than nothing) kept practicing and should be nice and fresh 2) this fact is already baked into the pointspread imo....Let's just say LSU came out and hammered McNeese last wk - likely - the spread would have been a bit higher IMO just based on perception since people would just see a big score up there McNeese or not. Maybe it would have opened -4 or -5 instead of -3ish...-3 is a very key number. GL !
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