NCAA wk 13

 wyoming 7 hawaii (63)

sooooooooo tempted to pile on wyoming - horrible spot for hawaii traveling to the cold off an OT loss....still winless and have Army next wk at home to break the losing streak.....so we cant play hawaii...However - after watching last wk's hawaii game - and looking at wyoming's body of work - some thoughts....way too much babble for a game like this....not gonna play the game but just FWIW so you guys understand the potential risk in taking wyoming......Last wk Hawaii ran the ball very well and see them having zero problem moving it on wyoming who's D is ranked 112 and run D 115....Iosefa set a team record with 37 carries and also had 150Y....LAKALAKA is a secret weapon and our new fav MWC Conf player.....LAKALAKA .....They are more of a grinding team than i thought - while still trying to MATRICULATE in the passing game....Their QB throws a decent ball but its an accurate floater type tracjectory so not sure how that translates in wind and cold...in any event - hawaii will move the ball unless they mail it in which is possible.....But they DO have quality road performances for the first time in a while - covered at Oregon St UNLV and Navy....say what you want - but covering matters....Played a decent SD St team to OT.....Wyoming has given up 52 51 48 48 last 4 wks...so does that team sound like a LOCK at -7??? not to us even tho we get the "fade Hawaii" position.........wyoming with 4 wins - idaho and something called northern colorado included in the feces they have beat....Was hoping for a total around 70 to pound under but looks bang on at 63.....pass on this one.

GL boys

some really good reasons to play bg - 1)EM stinks 2)BG on a major roll....NOT SO FAST.....we cant play them in this spot with the huge Buffalo game next wk...also have the fair line 20-21....But also - EM 2nd game with new HC...won their last game against WM and players have a bit of a spark...Thankfully the Ron English disaster is over......EM doesnt have to do much to cover 24-25 at home....total looks about right maybe even a bit high - BG D starting to get STIFFagain....conflicting signals - pass

Agree 100% Mega. Wyoming was high on my radar when I first saw them, but after watching the SDSU game last week, I realized how much better they are now that RB Joey I is back healthy. Their run game had been awful, but with him back it's gotten a huge upgrade....over 350 yds the 2 games he's been back. I really liked Hawaii traveling to cold Wyoming, but now it's prob a no play bc of the boost they have gotten in the backfield 

hammers.....great work on your big plays this yr

I like that play, "degen" or otherwise.  

if they had LAKALAKA they could beat Bama

we have the fair line right around the 7 pt mark....NW has had a legendary series of tough losses and tough beats including a Hail Mary and need 2 wins to get to a bowl game - so technically a must win - but what can they possibly have left? Well last 2 wks still fought hard vs Mich and Neb....slight lean to the dog here - BUT - like we said last wk when we did not play the huskers - not gonna get rich fading Ds like mich st - 1 in d and run d - 4 in scoring d - 2 in 3rd down d - etc....gave up 0 3 6 in 3 games before last wk...NW only 328 329 326 318 in offense L4G.....so we think gonna be hard far NW to get it going this wk against a brick wall - can see a dog cover if they can be +2 in t/o....not impossible....fun fact - dog is 8-3 L11 ats - and road team just 1-11L12 ATS...? hmmm....Was thinking over - remember what we said last wk - under a total in low 40s in ncaa might as well stab yourself....but - besides stats noted above - last 5 NW totals - 41 37 27 51 and 46 (3 OT)....feels like a snot bubbler - slightest of leans to dog if you can get 7.5 potential bomb for ML parlay wheel

line super sharp imo - memphis is just unreal stinky on offense - even when winning last wk still had less than 250y off...L defense is excellent dont see any way Memphis gets anything going....Teddy will be able to MATRICULATE as Memphis D has shown holes vs teams that can pass.....total maybe a bit light but gonna pass on this one - feels like 38-6 or 31-13 or.......better games out there - pass

So far this yr 0-1 in Baylor games.....Lost small degen play on the Sooners....Water under the bridge...First off - no way no how do we want to talk anyone off Baylor. Cant argue that they are awesome and for the record we are cheering for them to go undefeated. 

We will just point out our position as usual - dont take any one point as key - think about all our points in their entirety....1) Okie St has won 6 straight and covered 5 in a row beating the vegas line by almost 70 points - they are hot - and really playing well since Chelf took over full time at QB 2)Okie St 9-1L10 ATS at home - home team is 9-2L11 ATS in series....Okie St 54-16L70 SU at home - its a tough place to win on the road....We are mindful however that baylor is on a crazy ATS streak of their own - 21-6L27 ATS...wow 3) given #2 above - the line is absolutely shaded in favor of okie st - sagarin has the fair line at 7 - we have it closer to 4-5....Now that by itself means nothing baylor has crushed the line by 30 points 3 times this yr - but at this point - every cover will need to be earned - and we think if they go into okie st and crush them - wowwww again 4)okie st can still win the big12 - big motivation 5) weather - maybe slight favor to okie st if its bad 6) okie has scored 50 four times this yr - 58 52 42 38 last 4....Baylor D ranked higher but okie has played a tougher schedule.....okie st #27 against the run and #10 in pass eff D - more impt than yds allowed...7) baylor only 3 true road game - still untested in our view - although cant deny never easy to beat k st at home and they did by 10 8) baylor feasts on turnovers - okie st ranked #10 in turnover margin cant see them #pissingthegameaway 9) pressure on baylor as fav 10) injuries - baylor without top rb and wr - yes they have a great system but depth does matter - now also have inj on D with LB Hager doubtful and OL Drango out.

GL....mega

plays

- okie st +10

(max 2% of bankroll if dumb enough to tail)

small degen cash incineration plays...action only

- navy +1.5 

agree - baylor win by 7 -woooooooooooooooo

you know me too well - knew i would be on the cowpokes

gotta try to get in a few more games before off to vegas friday am

thx man !! GL this wk

cant wait

duke looking to get into the ACC champ game ....wake having trouble getting offense going since Camp went down.....we just saw them get trucked by fla st whilst throwing 6 int....tough to call out a wake bet here - but as per Steele - these teams play close games 6L7 decided by combined 23 pts....duke the hunted now - as we said last wk - duke was still a dog and a decent play vs miami - role flips now....hmmmmm....slightest of leans to duke but points just may come into play....under trends for wake - over for duke - and their last 2 g 38-20 48-30.....we have the game at 48 so 49.5 not a ton of value - gonna pass

 canes 20 virginia (58)

danger danger....no idea - we have the fair line right where it is - miami going down like a 6 dollaa ho....virginia just brutal - hard to recommend either side - puzzler at 20. pass.

 houston 3.5 cincy (58)

gonna bite and go small on the dog...cincy on a major roll winning 5 straight - yes their sched has been soft - but they are winning - 21 ranked O 8 ranked D....still in the hunt for conf champ whilst houston off 2 tough road losses to very good Louis and ucf teams - already bowl eligible - not thinking we get their best effort - would not have touched the game have it at a pick em - but catching 3.5 pts seems decent - will bite.....houston will allow cincy to MATRICULATE in the passing game - biggest danger is turnovers - houston still #1 in to margin....Kay however at qb for cincy ranked #2 in ncaa in comp % almost 73%....small CINCY

update

plays - max 2% bankroll if dumb enough to tail

- okie st +10

small degen cash incineration plays - action only - beware

- navy +1.5

- cincy +3.5

mega

ok i guess if you bet billions of "units" and keep chasing 

ok i guess if you won all your "other" unposted bets and leave newbies hanging out to dry 

Off to Vegas tomorrow. I wonder if they take "units" as cash in the sportsbook? I wonder if we can pay our hotel bill in "units"? 

have a Great time in Sin City