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    All Forums | College Football

    NCAA wk 13

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    MEGALOCKS
    CalBear
    EastsideBangers
    jmyane
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    MEGALOCKS
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    Posted: Nov. 18, 2013 - 2:39 PM ET #1

    Freaks

    What a week of fantastic finishes. Most exciting week of the year potentially. Auburn game. Michigan game ending. UCF game ending. Baylor fireworks. Ended with a fun USC/Stanford SNOT BUBBLER....A Saturday that always makes us remember why NCAA football is the best.

    Sadly - the picks were 0-2  Here is a different take on the Auburn game from a guy who had Georgia. WHATEVER. I mean I lost a good chunk on that last play but I will ALWAYS remember that play and how incredible it was. The cash will come back. That was a fantastic play and why I NEVER shut the game off until the clock is 0:00. Auburn was the better team and to me over the course of the game. But it could have gone either way. Now we are not one of the Covers guys that says "oh we bought off our Georgia pick and took Auburn!!! sorry losers !" or "we got Georgia +5.5 on Sunday !! 109 units !!" We lost. And Hawaii over? Well sadly we recorded the game and watched it. NO WAY that game was going over so it was a bad pick. Yes - a Hawaii TD in OT would have made over 58 a winner - but there was essentially no red zone play until OT - a couple of broken play TDs - but any number over 55 was too much IMO. Lesson learned.   Its always ok to admit when you SUCK. Last wk was not good and the leans were garbage as well. Its ok - just one week and we absolutely bet smart and didn't chase so now we move on to week 13. 28-17 YTD which is good for us.

    OFF TO VEGAS this FRIDAY for DEGENERACY UNLIMITED and an attempt to avenge our decimal point loss for 1st place in the EPIC VEGAS GOLF tournament. We will bring our A game - and FOOT WEDGES to get out of tight spots.

    Wont have time for a ton of write-ups - will do our best.

    GL freaks ....MEGA

     

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    Freaks

    What a week of fantastic finishes. Most exciting week of the year potentially. Auburn game. Michigan game ending. UCF game ending. Baylor fireworks. Ended with a fun USC/Stanford SNOT BUBBLER....A Saturday that always makes us remember why NCAA football is the best.

    Sadly - the picks were 0-2  Here is a different take on the Auburn game from a guy who had Georgia. WHATEVER. I mean I lost a good chunk on that last play but I will ALWAYS remember that play and how incredible it was. The cash will come back. That was a fantastic play and why I NEVER shut the game off until the clock is 0:00. Auburn was the better team and to me over the course of the game. But it could have gone either way. Now we are not one of the Covers guys that says "oh we bought off our Georgia pick and took Auburn!!! sorry losers !" or "we got Georgia +5.5 on Sunday !! 109 units !!" We lost. And Hawaii over? Well sadly we recorded the game and watched it. NO WAY that game was going over so it was a bad pick. Yes - a Hawaii TD in OT would have made over 58 a winner - but there was essentially no red zone play until OT - a couple of broken play TDs - but any number over 55 was too much IMO. Lesson learned.   Its always ok to admit when you SUCK. Last wk was not good and the leans were garbage as well. Its ok - just one week and we absolutely bet smart and didn't chase so now we move on to week 13. 28-17 YTD which is good for us.

    OFF TO VEGAS this FRIDAY for DEGENERACY UNLIMITED and an attempt to avenge our decimal point loss for 1st place in the EPIC VEGAS GOLF tournament. We will bring our A game - and FOOT WEDGES to get out of tight spots.

    Wont have time for a ton of write-ups - will do our best.

    GL freaks ....MEGA

     

     
    MEGALOCKS
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    Posted: Nov. 18, 2013 - 2:45 PM ET #2

     Buffalo 24 Miami Oh (48)

    would love to fade Miami #shitbags this wk - but line is pretty jacked up - should be closer to 20 IMO so you will pay to take Buffalo - Miami rivals S Piss in our view as the worst team - but Buffalo does have the big game vs BG next wk and off a bad showing vs Toledo - have to pass on this one. No lean at all.

     ohio 5 clark kent (49)

    puzzler....ohio has been outscored 79-3 last two games and have a recent home stinker to CMich which makes them a no play....They are 4-1SU at home tho...We just wonder if they are sick of their coach - is it injuries - what the hell happened to their QB??? Just a weird team that can get to 8 wins with a win this wk and over umass next wk....Kent 3-8 and have to believe they have nothing to play for ....Road team series 10-3 ATS...Also Kent a decent ATS 9-4L13 away....Slightest of leans to an ohio blowout as Kent gets outta there and doesn't even let the door hit their AZZ on the way out.....probably have to pass on this #totalshitfest.

    mega

     

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     Buffalo 24 Miami Oh (48)

    would love to fade Miami #shitbags this wk - but line is pretty jacked up - should be closer to 20 IMO so you will pay to take Buffalo - Miami rivals S Piss in our view as the worst team - but Buffalo does have the big game vs BG next wk and off a bad showing vs Toledo - have to pass on this one. No lean at all.

     ohio 5 clark kent (49)

    puzzler....ohio has been outscored 79-3 last two games and have a recent home stinker to CMich which makes them a no play....They are 4-1SU at home tho...We just wonder if they are sick of their coach - is it injuries - what the hell happened to their QB??? Just a weird team that can get to 8 wins with a win this wk and over umass next wk....Kent 3-8 and have to believe they have nothing to play for ....Road team series 10-3 ATS...Also Kent a decent ATS 9-4L13 away....Slightest of leans to an ohio blowout as Kent gets outta there and doesn't even let the door hit their AZZ on the way out.....probably have to pass on this #totalshitfest.

    mega

     

     
    CalBear
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    Posted: Nov. 18, 2013 - 2:48 PM ET #3

    GL big fella
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    GL big fella
     
    MEGALOCKS
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    Posted: Nov. 18, 2013 - 4:51 PM ET #4

    CalBear

     NIU 2.5 Toledo (72)

    MEGALOCKS supercomputers actually have the fair line right at a pick em which shocked us - but really - the teams are pretty close with a slight edge to NIU - potentially negated by HFA for Toledo....Slight lean to the over but playing totals that high is not our forte - Toledo  55 51 last 2 wks....NIU 592 658 612 569 offense last 4 wks....Just have a feeling this one gonna be dead tight into 4Q and MACtion refs or lucky bounce or one big play deciding things ....both teams good in turnover margin....Gonna revisit if this baby gets to 3....maybe 3 -120 so we get 3.5 cheaply....gonna pass for now tho and plan on some tasty in game action

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    CalBear

     NIU 2.5 Toledo (72)

    MEGALOCKS supercomputers actually have the fair line right at a pick em which shocked us - but really - the teams are pretty close with a slight edge to NIU - potentially negated by HFA for Toledo....Slight lean to the over but playing totals that high is not our forte - Toledo  55 51 last 2 wks....NIU 592 658 612 569 offense last 4 wks....Just have a feeling this one gonna be dead tight into 4Q and MACtion refs or lucky bounce or one big play deciding things ....both teams good in turnover margin....Gonna revisit if this baby gets to 3....maybe 3 -120 so we get 3.5 cheaply....gonna pass for now tho and plan on some tasty in game action

     
    EastsideBangers
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    Posted: Nov. 18, 2013 - 4:59 PM ET #5

    Banging since 1983
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    MEGALOCKS
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    Posted: Nov. 18, 2013 - 5:08 PM ET #6

     UCF 17 rutgers (58.5)

    no way no how we can play Rutgers as they are a hot mess with a ton of injuries testing their depth....Been #assdrilled a couple of times at home which makes us question their heart at least a bit....we have the fair line around 15-16 so looks about right....UCF showed they are human and escaped Temple - 2 str ATS losses....Have to believe they will take care of bidnesss but they did play a nice game at Louisville earlier in the year....slightest of lean to ucf based on Rutgers ability to tank tank tank on a moments notice but gonna steer clear...total also looks bang on...yeeesh these lines look tight so far

     

    mega

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     UCF 17 rutgers (58.5)

    no way no how we can play Rutgers as they are a hot mess with a ton of injuries testing their depth....Been #assdrilled a couple of times at home which makes us question their heart at least a bit....we have the fair line around 15-16 so looks about right....UCF showed they are human and escaped Temple - 2 str ATS losses....Have to believe they will take care of bidnesss but they did play a nice game at Louisville earlier in the year....slightest of lean to ucf based on Rutgers ability to tank tank tank on a moments notice but gonna steer clear...total also looks bang on...yeeesh these lines look tight so far

     

    mega

     
    jmyane
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    Posted: Nov. 18, 2013 - 5:11 PM ET #7

    get em Mega


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    get em Mega


     
    MEGALOCKS
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    Posted: Nov. 18, 2013 - 5:32 PM ET #8

    boys

     rice a roni 19 uab (62)

    here is this week's You Heard It Here First TIDBIT that will be noted in write-ups across the internet this wk by Thursday....UAB is horrid - but it is mid-late November and they have only played THREE home games - one vs FCS team...Lost by 14 to F Atl - were outgained significantly tho - and a close 3 pt loss to MTSU - a game they could have won...So what?? Well one reason we are having a good yr and have taken our analysis up a notch is we avoid games like this - Rice should drill them - 500Y and 45 pts 3 of last 4 games - 328 364 253 327 last 4 games on D....BUT - we just don't know HOW crappy UAB really is because they have not had a fair shake at home - and - home team has won 4 str in series....Also we think fair line closer to 14-16....So???? well its a pass - Rice should kill them but just not sure about UAB at home - could play with their hair on fire and don't need to do much right to cover 20ish at home....total looks close to perfect....pass

    Also !

    Check out our 47328905425 unit teasers we played in JULY !!!!! we are so great

    Our "local" lets us tease season win totals !! we are so awesome

    Alabama over 4.5 wins WIN

    Ohio St over 4.5 wins WIN

    Buffalo over -1.5 wins WIN

    Don't worry if you missed - we have 6 trillion units in teasers ready for this wk.

     

     

     

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    boys

     rice a roni 19 uab (62)

    here is this week's You Heard It Here First TIDBIT that will be noted in write-ups across the internet this wk by Thursday....UAB is horrid - but it is mid-late November and they have only played THREE home games - one vs FCS team...Lost by 14 to F Atl - were outgained significantly tho - and a close 3 pt loss to MTSU - a game they could have won...So what?? Well one reason we are having a good yr and have taken our analysis up a notch is we avoid games like this - Rice should drill them - 500Y and 45 pts 3 of last 4 games - 328 364 253 327 last 4 games on D....BUT - we just don't know HOW crappy UAB really is because they have not had a fair shake at home - and - home team has won 4 str in series....Also we think fair line closer to 14-16....So???? well its a pass - Rice should kill them but just not sure about UAB at home - could play with their hair on fire and don't need to do much right to cover 20ish at home....total looks close to perfect....pass

    Also !

    Check out our 47328905425 unit teasers we played in JULY !!!!! we are so great

    Our "local" lets us tease season win totals !! we are so awesome

    Alabama over 4.5 wins WIN

    Ohio St over 4.5 wins WIN

    Buffalo over -1.5 wins WIN

    Don't worry if you missed - we have 6 trillion units in teasers ready for this wk.

     

     

     

     
    MEGALOCKS
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    Posted: Nov. 18, 2013 - 5:52 PM ET #9

     air farce 1.5 unlv (63.5)

    as horrible as AF has looked - last 2 wks they have awaken - beat army by 2 TD...lost a close one to N Mex....New QB Romine has been playing well - 3 TD passing and ran well last wk - watched the game was impressed....Lacoste is a nice RB 177 263 last 2 games....however their D is beyond description - I mean a steaming pile of #buffaloshit which we hate to say because AF has always been one of our favs - was hoping to maybe catch a FG but we have the line at pk and don't see much value - UNLV beat them SU last yr 38-35....probably more of a complete team - 5 wins approaching bowl eligibility....gonna have to take a pass - don't even think taking + money on the ML for either team is enough value....pass

    sorry nothing yet

    mega

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     air farce 1.5 unlv (63.5)

    as horrible as AF has looked - last 2 wks they have awaken - beat army by 2 TD...lost a close one to N Mex....New QB Romine has been playing well - 3 TD passing and ran well last wk - watched the game was impressed....Lacoste is a nice RB 177 263 last 2 games....however their D is beyond description - I mean a steaming pile of #buffaloshit which we hate to say because AF has always been one of our favs - was hoping to maybe catch a FG but we have the line at pk and don't see much value - UNLV beat them SU last yr 38-35....probably more of a complete team - 5 wins approaching bowl eligibility....gonna have to take a pass - don't even think taking + money on the ML for either team is enough value....pass

    sorry nothing yet

    mega

     
    EastsideBangers
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    Posted: Nov. 18, 2013 - 7:29 PM ET #10

    Where's your BYU pick?  

    Banging since 1983
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    Where's your BYU pick?  

     
    Flush1
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    Posted: Nov. 18, 2013 - 8:28 PM ET #11

    Megalocks , u have class sir . Nuff said .  
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    Megalocks , u have class sir . Nuff said .  
     
    MEGALOCKS
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    Posted: Nov. 18, 2013 - 8:42 PM ET #12

    Quote Originally Posted by EastsideBangers:

    Where's your BYU pick?  


    Still looking at it buddy 

    Right now it's a   Interested in other opinions. Our supercomputers have it at a pick em. 
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    Quote Originally Posted by EastsideBangers:

    Where's your BYU pick?  


    Still looking at it buddy 

    Right now it's a   Interested in other opinions. Our supercomputers have it at a pick em. 
     
    MEGALOCKS
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    Posted: Nov. 18, 2013 - 8:42 PM ET #13

    Quote Originally Posted by Flush1:

    Megalocks , u have class sir . Nuff said .  

     GL this wk man
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    Quote Originally Posted by Flush1:

    Megalocks , u have class sir . Nuff said .  

     GL this wk man
     
    EastsideBangers
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    Posted: Nov. 18, 2013 - 8:48 PM ET #14

    Mega

    Look into it

    Open your mind and the cash will follow 


    Banging since 1983
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    Mega

    Look into it

    Open your mind and the cash will follow 


     
    MEGALOCKS
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    Posted: Nov. 18, 2013 - 8:52 PM ET #15

    Quote Originally Posted by EastsideBangers:

    Mega

    Look into it

    Open your mind and the cash will follow 



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    Quote Originally Posted by EastsideBangers:

    Mega

    Look into it

    Open your mind and the cash will follow 



     
    Vituperate
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    Posted: Nov. 18, 2013 - 9:19 PM ET #16

    Dude…seriously, nobody does what you do on the net today and does it as well. That is my opinion. You make capping fun.

    ty…have a happy, small degen trip to Vegas.
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    Dude…seriously, nobody does what you do on the net today and does it as well. That is my opinion. You make capping fun.

    ty…have a happy, small degen trip to Vegas.
     
    MEGALOCKS
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    Posted: Nov. 18, 2013 - 9:31 PM ET #17

    Quote Originally Posted by Vituperate:

    Dude…seriously, nobody does what you do on the net today and does it as well. That is my opinion. You make capping fun.

    ty…have a happy, small degen trip to Vegas.

    Thx man
    Key is not betting as much on any one play so u dont get crushed on one game. Not as "exciting" but it's what I need to do to keep my sanity during Hail Mary losses And MAC fixesGL
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vituperate:

    Dude…seriously, nobody does what you do on the net today and does it as well. That is my opinion. You make capping fun.

    ty…have a happy, small degen trip to Vegas.

    Thx man
    Key is not betting as much on any one play so u dont get crushed on one game. Not as "exciting" but it's what I need to do to keep my sanity during Hail Mary losses And MAC fixesGL
     
    sportschat
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    Posted: Nov. 18, 2013 - 10:11 PM ET #18

    gl Mega, one of the best reads on covers
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    gl Mega, one of the best reads on covers
     
    nc1capper
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    Posted: Nov. 18, 2013 - 10:14 PM ET #19

    Enjoy Vegas mega
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    Enjoy Vegas mega
     
    SoonerAction
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    Posted: Nov. 18, 2013 - 10:16 PM ET #20

    Mega, just want to say that I try to avoid MAC games.  I think they are way too unpredictable.  But GL anyway.  Would like your input on some games I may play.

    Duke -5 Wake Forest    Two teams in heading in opposite directions.
    Houston -3 Cincy    Bearcats are not as strong away from home.
    OU +3 KSU    Sooners much better team with Knight at QB.  Bell out with a concussion.
    ECU -7 NC St    Pirates should rout the Pack.
    Utah St -6 CSU    Don't like the Rams away from home.
    Ohio St -34 IU    Buckeyes cover easily.
    Tenn -3 Vandy    Vols are too tough for Vandy at home.  
    SMU -4 S.Fla    Ponies have way too much offense.
    Missouri -3 Miss    Franklin comes back to big win over Rebels.
    USC -22 CU    Trojans in a big rout over the Buffs.

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    Mega, just want to say that I try to avoid MAC games.  I think they are way too unpredictable.  But GL anyway.  Would like your input on some games I may play.

    Duke -5 Wake Forest    Two teams in heading in opposite directions.
    Houston -3 Cincy    Bearcats are not as strong away from home.
    OU +3 KSU    Sooners much better team with Knight at QB.  Bell out with a concussion.
    ECU -7 NC St    Pirates should rout the Pack.
    Utah St -6 CSU    Don't like the Rams away from home.
    Ohio St -34 IU    Buckeyes cover easily.
    Tenn -3 Vandy    Vols are too tough for Vandy at home.  
    SMU -4 S.Fla    Ponies have way too much offense.
    Missouri -3 Miss    Franklin comes back to big win over Rebels.
    USC -22 CU    Trojans in a big rout over the Buffs.

     
    TRAIN69
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    Posted: Nov. 18, 2013 - 10:20 PM ET #21

    This thread is bullshit. All this logic is driving me

     

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    This thread is bullshit. All this logic is driving me

     

     
    WISEGUY36
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    Posted: Nov. 18, 2013 - 11:00 PM ET #22

    Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:

    CalBear

     NIU 2.5 Toledo (72)

    MEGALOCKS supercomputers actually have the fair line right at a pick em which shocked us - but really - the teams are pretty close with a slight edge to NIU - potentially negated by HFA for Toledo....Slight lean to the over but playing totals that high is not our forte - Toledo  55 51 last 2 wks....NIU 592 658 612 569 offense last 4 wks....Just have a feeling this one gonna be dead tight into 4Q and MACtion refs or lucky bounce or one big play deciding things ....both teams good in turnover margin....Gonna revisit if this baby gets to 3....maybe 3 -120 so we get 3.5 cheaply....gonna pass for now tho and plan on some tasty in game action





    This should be a great game to watch at your favorite
    sports bar on Wednesday. You can recover on the flight
    out here .
    Hope you enjoy Las Vegas , Bud.

    P. S. This is Las Vegas Man There will be none of this ..
    Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
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    Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:

    CalBear

     NIU 2.5 Toledo (72)

    MEGALOCKS supercomputers actually have the fair line right at a pick em which shocked us - but really - the teams are pretty close with a slight edge to NIU - potentially negated by HFA for Toledo....Slight lean to the over but playing totals that high is not our forte - Toledo  55 51 last 2 wks....NIU 592 658 612 569 offense last 4 wks....Just have a feeling this one gonna be dead tight into 4Q and MACtion refs or lucky bounce or one big play deciding things ....both teams good in turnover margin....Gonna revisit if this baby gets to 3....maybe 3 -120 so we get 3.5 cheaply....gonna pass for now tho and plan on some tasty in game action





    This should be a great game to watch at your favorite
    sports bar on Wednesday. You can recover on the flight
    out here .
    Hope you enjoy Las Vegas , Bud.

    P. S. This is Las Vegas Man There will be none of this ..
     
    MEGALOCKS
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    Posted: Nov. 19, 2013 - 8:39 AM ET #23

    thx boys   much appreciated !

    train -  "Megalocks - For all your logic needs"

    wiseguy - never  in vegas - unless it involves #trannyhookers - then it is just ....leaving friday for a wk




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    thx boys   much appreciated !

    train -  "Megalocks - For all your logic needs"

    wiseguy - never  in vegas - unless it involves #trannyhookers - then it is just ....leaving friday for a wk




     
    MEGALOCKS
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    Posted: Nov. 19, 2013 - 8:52 AM ET #24

    Quote Originally Posted by SoonerAction:

    Mega, just want to say that I try to avoid MAC games.  I think they are way too unpredictable.  But GL anyway.  Would like your input on some games I may play.

    Duke -5 Wake Forest    Two teams in heading in opposite directions.
    Houston -3 Cincy    Bearcats are not as strong away from home.
    OU +3 KSU    Sooners much better team with Knight at QB.  Bell out with a concussion.
    ECU -7 NC St    Pirates should rout the Pack.
    Utah St -6 CSU    Don't like the Rams away from home.
    Ohio St -34 IU    Buckeyes cover easily.
    Tenn -3 Vandy    Vols are too tough for Vandy at home.  
    SMU -4 S.Fla    Ponies have way too much offense.
    Missouri -3 Miss    Franklin comes back to big win over Rebels.
    USC -22 CU    Trojans in a big rout over the Buffs.



    hey sooner - agree MAC games are nuts - It is called MACtion for a reason We rarely have more than a couple bucks on the games so that when we get #fisted it doesnt destroy our bankroll

    have not looked at these yet so just a quick summary for now - sorry dont wanna lead you astray

    strongly agree
    utah st
    usc
    smu

    agree
    houston
    tenn

    no opinion
    duke
    ohio st
    ecu

    disagree
    mizz 
    sooners - even tho we like that team - k st is
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    Quote Originally Posted by SoonerAction:

    Mega, just want to say that I try to avoid MAC games.  I think they are way too unpredictable.  But GL anyway.  Would like your input on some games I may play.

    Duke -5 Wake Forest    Two teams in heading in opposite directions.
    Houston -3 Cincy    Bearcats are not as strong away from home.
    OU +3 KSU    Sooners much better team with Knight at QB.  Bell out with a concussion.
    ECU -7 NC St    Pirates should rout the Pack.
    Utah St -6 CSU    Don't like the Rams away from home.
    Ohio St -34 IU    Buckeyes cover easily.
    Tenn -3 Vandy    Vols are too tough for Vandy at home.  
    SMU -4 S.Fla    Ponies have way too much offense.
    Missouri -3 Miss    Franklin comes back to big win over Rebels.
    USC -22 CU    Trojans in a big rout over the Buffs.



    hey sooner - agree MAC games are nuts - It is called MACtion for a reason We rarely have more than a couple bucks on the games so that when we get #fisted it doesnt destroy our bankroll

    have not looked at these yet so just a quick summary for now - sorry dont wanna lead you astray

    strongly agree
    utah st
    usc
    smu

    agree
    houston
    tenn

    no opinion
    duke
    ohio st
    ecu

    disagree
    mizz 
    sooners - even tho we like that team - k st is
     
     
    MEGALOCKS
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    Posted: Nov. 19, 2013 - 9:08 AM ET #25

     sj st 1.5 navy (59.5)

    taking a small degen play on navy...they have been nothing but scrappy this yr and really humming....since the loss to duke early oct - tough losses to nd and toledo - beat pitt hawaii s alabama...slightest of leans to over but we have it at 61 so not much value - could always to a 49 pt teaser and get it over 10.5 .........sj has beat them tho last 2 yrs....the reality is that sj st is not close to the team from last yr imo looking superficially at the results - or a deeper look at some stats - just a couple - last yr sj st was ranked 24 and 18 in total D and run D - this yr 97 and 99.

    update

    plays (none)

    small degen coin flip bankroll destroyers 
    - navy +1.5 -105


    mega

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     sj st 1.5 navy (59.5)

    taking a small degen play on navy...they have been nothing but scrappy this yr and really humming....since the loss to duke early oct - tough losses to nd and toledo - beat pitt hawaii s alabama...slightest of leans to over but we have it at 61 so not much value - could always to a 49 pt teaser and get it over 10.5 .........sj has beat them tho last 2 yrs....the reality is that sj st is not close to the team from last yr imo looking superficially at the results - or a deeper look at some stats - just a couple - last yr sj st was ranked 24 and 18 in total D and run D - this yr 97 and 99.

    update

    plays (none)

    small degen coin flip bankroll destroyers 
    - navy +1.5 -105


    mega

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