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NCAA WEEK 8 Overdosed on confidence.......Biggest play of the year and more....

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Participants:

Posts: 141

TRAIN69

Legend

Joined: Oct, 2002

Posts: 55847

Posted: Oct. 17, 2011 - 12:50 PM ET #26

Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

103-81 ytd

To start with: I may lose this play. Its a road fav. Its at night. I know, I know.

Russell and crew are too much for any defense outside of BAMA and LSU. Sparty will be torched. Oh, the Badgers can run the ball too.....

Wisconsin -6.5 -120

Wisky 51 Sparty 20

and the rest of the early card:

Clemson -9.5 -120

Ok St -6.5 -120

Cuse +14.5

Maryland +17.5 -120

Ark -16.5 -120

Tex A&M -20.5

NW +4

Add:

Clem pk/Wisky +3/Dallas pk teaser -133

The-Kid-Is-Good

Prospect

Joined: Aug, 2010

Posts: 396

Posted: Oct. 17, 2011 - 12:50 PM ET #27

Good luck this week, Train. I think the best Big Ten play is Northwestern at home.

A few things I don't like about Wisconsin this week:
1. Everyone seems to be jumping on them without even thinking this one through (I have +9 at 5dimes).
2. This is their toughest competition to date.
3. It's their first real road game of the season, and only 2nd on a grass surface.
4. The home team typically dominates this rivalry.

I know they've looked nearly perfect against their weak schedule, which is all you can expect from them, but it's hard to know how a team will react in such an adverse environment. Not to mention we're halfway through the season and they finally have a road test. How will Russell Wilson fare in East Lansing?
_______________________________________________

Shake the fucking haters off and keep doing what you do. None of us win them all.

TRAIN69

Legend

Joined: Oct, 2002

Posts: 55847

Posted: Oct. 17, 2011 - 12:56 PM ET #28

Quote Originally Posted by The-Kid-Is-Good:

Good luck this week, Train. I think the best Big Ten play is Northwestern at home.

A few things I don't like about Wisconsin this week:
1. Everyone seems to be jumping on them without even thinking this one through (I have +9 at 5dimes).
2. This is their toughest competition to date.
3. It's their first real road game of the season, and only 2nd on a grass surface.
4. The home team typically dominates this rivalry.

I know they've looked nearly perfect against their weak schedule, which is all you can expect from them, but it's hard to know how a team will react in such an adverse environment. Not to mention we're halfway through the season and they finally have a road test. How will Russell Wilson fare in East Lansing?
_______________________________________________

Shake the fucking haters off and keep doing what you do. None of us win them all.

I agree with a lot of that, but believe me, I have thought it through. Wilson did just fine at NCST on grass. I dont think MSU is much better if any than Nebraska (definately not on defense). People are also forgetting MSU just won its huge rivalry game...emotion is a hard thing to keep up. People are betting MSU simply because they are at home, at night, and because of past stats. I dont look at trends or such things, I trust my eyes. My eyes tell me the Badgers are gonna pound the ball and they play action and throw all over the field....

bol Kid

Brinksta

Prospect

Joined: Sep, 2011

Posts: 223

Posted: Oct. 17, 2011 - 1:10 PM ET #29

Wisconsin line is now at -9. Glad I got it early at 7.

The-Kid-Is-Good

Prospect

Joined: Aug, 2010

Posts: 396

Posted: Oct. 17, 2011 - 1:45 PM ET #30

Thanks for your input. I'm not sold on either side at this point. It's no surprise to me that people have pounded Wisconsin early, and I fully expect them to until kickoff.

I'm not big on trends either, but I'm also not big on the "letdown" theory. Are you telling me a week of anticipating a game against the #4 team in the country, coming into your house, which everyone expects you to lose, isn't motivational? As a very competitive person and former athlete, any of these reasons would be enough to get me up for the game, let alone the combination of all 3.

Bottom line here is, you got very favorable lines for the side you're on, and you can't ask for much more than that. I'll be watching the pricing on this one throughout the week.

Good luck bro. Knock 'em dead.

ballinbdub

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2007

Posts: 224

Posted: Oct. 17, 2011 - 1:59 PM ET #31

Went to grab Wis -7 and it's up to -11 at BetUS!!!

GoMuckYaSelf

Rookie

Joined: Sep, 2010

Posts: 675

Posted: Oct. 17, 2011 - 2:13 PM ET #32

Wisconsin is a team that executes offense flawlessly. I don't see Michigan State scoring 20 points. I love Wisconsin here, but I don't feel they can put up 50 or 60 points. I like the Badgers in a 35-17 in this one. This might be a spot where the Under could be a good play too depending on the line.

TRAIN69

Legend

Joined: Oct, 2002

Posts: 55847

Posted: Oct. 17, 2011 - 5:56 PM ET #33

People act as if this is simply the Wisky offense vs the Sparty defense. Well, Wisky hasnt given up more than 17 (which is impressive given the fact other teams have been playing catchup and against 2nd string in the 4th quarter), while MSU has put up 13 and 10 against its only real defensive competiotion (I'll give you 28 against Michigan if you really think they have a good defense).

Comparing last years game to this is insane. If you really want to....then I'll take the revenge angle. People worried about sharp/square/public are just crazy. I trust my eyes. Sparty is a fraud. But hey, Ive been wrong before.

Like I said, Badgers win 51-20

tinoker55

MVP

Joined: Nov, 2009

Posts: 19106

Posted: Oct. 17, 2011 - 6:35 PM ET #34

Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

People act as if this is simply the Wisky offense vs the Sparty defense. Well, Wisky hasnt given up more than 17 (which is impressive given the fact other teams have been playing catchup and against 2nd string in the 4th quarter), while MSU has put up 13 and 10 against its only real defensive competiotion (I'll give you 28 against Michigan if you really think they have a good defense).

Comparing last years game to this is insane. If you really want to....then I'll take the revenge angle. People worried about sharp/square/public are just crazy. I trust my eyes. Sparty is a fraud. But hey, Ive been wrong before.

Like I said, Badgers win 51-20

I totally agree that Mich St is NOT that good, after all it took them all of 55 min to beat Michigan, and i dont think they are that good... GL...

Boom_Boom

MVP

Joined: Jun, 2008

Posts: 17342

Posted: Oct. 17, 2011 - 7:07 PM ET #35

train...........

Brandon12345

Veteran

Joined: Oct, 2004

Posts: 1460

Posted: Oct. 17, 2011 - 10:12 PM ET #36

I have seen several people that are betting Wisky use the "they beat Nebraska who has a better defense then MSU" line.

What actually makes Nebraska a good defense? The expectation that they were supposed to be good coming into this season? This is the same Nebraska "good" defense that gave up 29 to Fresno, 38 to Washington and 27 to a putrid Ohio State offense. All of those games were in Lincoln by the way, so I just don't understand that angle. From a neutral perspective, MSU's defense is better then Nebraska's and it seems like that shouldn't even be in question.

Now, Wisky could still put up 49 on MSU and I wouldn't be completely shocked, but MSU's defense will be by far Wisky's biggest test of the year. Then add in the fact that this is their first road game at night in prime time and I am not sure it is as much of a Wisky blowout as everyone predicts. Seems like this will be a low scoring battle that the team with the least turnovers will win.

InCash

Prospect

Joined: May, 2009

Posts: 132

Posted: Oct. 17, 2011 - 10:24 PM ET #37

Quote Originally Posted by kaponofor3:

Just out of curiosity TRAIN, but why buy the half point to -6.5 with WISKY when you think they are gonna win by 31 points?

Also, if you like them to win 51-20, shouldn't you pound the over 47.5? Or team total over 28ish? As a Badger fan, I like both of those more. The weakness of UW is the secondary, which nobody has tested so far. Cousins will be the best QB we see all year in terms of throwing the ball.

I suppose I like UW at -7 or less, but I think the over (or team total) is the way to go with the line the way it is now.

Jose_Reyes

Hall of Fame

Joined: May, 2010

Posts: 20468

Posted: Oct. 17, 2011 - 10:26 PM ET #38

GL this week train

TREE88

Hall of Fame

Joined: Feb, 2008

Posts: 20749

Posted: Oct. 17, 2011 - 10:49 PM ET #39

gl bro

ac_bum

Hall of Fame

Joined: Jun, 2011

Posts: 22968

Posted: Oct. 17, 2011 - 10:54 PM ET #40

LOTS OF WISKY DRINKING THIS WEEKEND

aggieaccountant

Veteran

Joined: Sep, 2009

Posts: 3490

Posted: Oct. 17, 2011 - 10:58 PM ET #41

Good luck train. I like a lot of those plays.

Hotrod0310

Rookie

Joined: Mar, 2009

Posts: 814

Posted: Oct. 17, 2011 - 11:07 PM ET #42

Im with ya train, biggest play of the year for me on the Badgers!!!

Hope it works out for both of us!

BOL

tinoker55

MVP

Joined: Nov, 2009

Posts: 19106

Posted: Oct. 17, 2011 - 11:12 PM ET #43

Quote Originally Posted by kaponofor3:

Just out of curiosity TRAIN, but why buy the half point to -6.5 with WISKY when you think they are gonna win by 31 points?

Unfrigginbelievable... what a joke, Some people just dont have anything else to do i guess?

gcnmoo

Captain

Joined: Dec, 2005

Posts: 5202

Posted: Oct. 17, 2011 - 11:14 PM ET #44

Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

I agree with a lot of that, but believe me, I have thought it through. Wilson did just fine at NCST on grass. I dont think MSU is much better if any than Nebraska (definately not on defense). People are also forgetting MSU just won its huge rivalry game...emotion is a hard thing to keep up. People are betting MSU simply because they are at home, at night, and because of past stats. I dont look at trends or such things, I trust my eyes. My eyes tell me the Badgers are gonna pound the ball and they play action and throw all over the field....

bol Kid

So Nebraska has a better defense than Michigan St? Please recheck your numbers....