MSU / NW

I'm sorry my MSU brethren, but that is just crazy.  Trying to avoid the jinx I suppose, but still crazy talk.

I think MSU will be an underdog @ IOWA so I will guess something like +140 ML type of dog.

We know that they are a favorite @ NW so about -300 ML area

Then MSU hosts both Minnesota & Purdue at East Lansing... both of those games will be double digit chalk, so just to guess about -650ML times two

Then the final road test @ PSU, who everybody knows is awful, but has the makings for an upset special if this is Jo'Pa's last stand.  I can see that game MSU being a modest chalk maybe about -4.5 which transaltes to about -350 ML

You take all those ML figures and crunch them like a parlay, and you have a chance of MSU running the table more at about -300 at worst.

The real only test if this team stays focused is that game @ Iowa.  If they win that game, Sparty's chances of a perfect season going into the bowl skyrockets.

OK I crunched my numbers again... right now I put MSU's chances closer to -600 ML to make the run.

A far cry from 100:1, but still many opportunities to falter.  Let's get this one Saturday at NW

-600?

Its probably closer to 1 in 10 times but its Spartan football...1 in 100 is probably about right

The line is at -6 on my book now,,probably will be jumping on Mich St soon.  I think they are playing some real good ball right now. I don't think they will take NW lightly and will stay focused even with Iowa coming up next. That game at Iowa could be the real test,and if they pass that,I don't see them losing the rest of the year. MN & Pur at home should be cake-walks and at Penn St should not be as big of a test as NW or Iowa. Also,I don't take anything away from Mich St even though they didnt have Ohio St on their schedule,,bi deal. Ohio State could be beat by them also,they are not as good as everybody thought they were.All they had was a 12 pt win at home over Mia,the same Mia that is 4-2 ,got blown out by FSU at home. Other than that Ohio St hadn't beat anyone that good yet,  Marsh,Ohio,E.Mich,Ill,and Ind. When they played a better team in Wis theygot beat. I wouldn't be shocked if Iowa beats them too. Mich St is for real,,but then that can change very quickly also.

The action should be based 100% on the situational angle, 'cuz on paper, MSU should win this by 2 td's.  This forum is completely littered with Northwestern plays, all over the place.  I think people are still thinking this is the same fraudulent, flaky-jake Sparty team that was coached by John L. Smith or Bobby Williams.  It's not, this year's Sparty team plays defense, runs the ball, and has a very efficient QB that has numerous receiving threats.  Like I said, I'm not playing a side, but if I took Northwestern, I'd want at least 10.5!!!!

Yeah, I think so.  I certainly could be considered one.  But I've watched every single second of MSU football this season and I think they're good enough/NW is bad enough for MSU to overcome the situation.  I say Sparty wins by about a TD, but has the potential to win by DD's.

OK WTF are you thinking here Sparty?

They are gonna cover @ NW probably withiut CL Rucker against NW passing offense....But on the other hand they are going to lose to PSU who are injured to the Earths core, Freshman QB and a running game thats worse than the Denver Broncos attack!!!

The Sparty's should win here especially if they can get some turnovers, their kicker is nails so settling for 3's shouldn't matter cuz Conroy is money. They are without question going to be able to run all day so I hope they take some more deep shots than usual. Will they be able to stop NW passing game is the only ? in this game.

flying-squirrel,

Maybe I worded that wrong.  I'm probably not considered a situational capper, but I use situational capping, at times.  My biggest bet of the year was on FAU v.s. Sparty.  I knew nothing about FAU, absolutely nothing.  But that situation, MSU a huge fav v.s. a non-conference opponent, on a "neutral field" with Notre Dame on deck presented an unbelivable situational angle IMO.  I don't play every look-ahead, letdown, sandwich, etc., but I do play some of them.  However, I don't think the look-ahead angle is as strong in conference play, especially when you're talking about a team that is playing for a conference title. 

Yeah, but you're a HUGE Michigan homer, so we know how you feel even before you post.