LonghornHoosier - Leans - Week 9 - Input Requested...

NCAAF Community

Well, I am 50% season to date, or 17-17-0 NCAAF ATS Side which is not going to cut it...It has nothing to do with me picking a mix 85% favorites and 15% dogs...The ATS outcomes for all games applied STD approximate 50 50...within one standard deviation...I am just not making the right picks...Part of it is, I get the inhibitor of self fulfillment...when my mind grabs on to the basis of a cap...and I stick with it, no matter what...My Tulane pick last week was a bad cap, and Spottie tried to tell me that, but I had already placed the bet...I will appreciate your input on my leans for week 9...

Leans

@Kansas State -9.5 over Kansas

Washington State -14 over @San Diego State

@Indiana -6.5 over Washington - yes I know QB Rourke is out for IU due to a thumb injury...

@Southern California -14 over Rutgers

I will appreciate any perspectives for or against these picks...I have not placed the wagers yet...I am just looking for pitfalls or positives, obvious or not, that I should consider that either support these picks, or get me off these picks...

Thank you in advance...for the takes...Please be honest and critical...I can take it..."I'm a man...I'm 40..." - Mike Gundy 

I really can’t teach you much.  It’s late in the season and if I have a bad dog week then what? We are just complete opposites and unless you change (because I’m rock steady) we really will never be congruent. 

Just think about why I am I taking dogs? Why would I ? How do I? All these top elite defenses quarterbacks running games, betting against top 25 teams.  how do dog bettors do it successfully and you, the favorite guy are inconsistent.  

I don't need you to teach me anything...I just asked the forum's opinion on these four picks...So I will ask you...Would you take the dog against any of these four favorites?   I have been capping and wagering since 2002, and posting here on Covers since 2007...with many profitable years...My post was to request input, not to express that I need help...For someone like you who does not post a record, and is confident in his system, perhaps a dose of humility and some transparency would win you a greater following on this forum...I know you will respond that you don't care about that stuff...but, I believe that you do...

The line seems a mite high for USC. I have to wonder what their mindset is after blowing their third straight game in the fourth quarter. But it's a long road trip for Rutgers, and they haven't really impressed me for the last four weeks. Don't care for either side here. 

I am leaning slightly towards Indiana. The injury to Rourke is factored into the line, but the backup QB played well in the second half against Nebraska. Curt Cignetti is a tremendous coach. The Hoosiers haven't allowed a first quarter point all season, they haven't trailed all season and they've dominated the fourth quarter in every game. Cignetti keeps the pedal to the metal regardless of the score. UDub is off a bye though for what it's worth. 

Haven't really looked at your other two games yet. Anyways that's my 2¢. BOL in whatever you decide.

You’re funny LHH everytime we talk its humorous 

best wishes 

@LonghornHoosier

 PM me. I would have some questions for you about your process and the information that you are reviewing before making a play. 

K State -10 at my book. As a Kansas fan, we looked better last week against a horrendous Houston squad, the 3 picks they threw helped quite a bit. We also didn't turn the ball over (11 TO's first 5 games). Kstate 42nd in D Turnovers nationally, game could come down to one ill-timed JD6 pick. Clock management has been an issue as well, KU has given away points at the end of the 1H on a few occasions this season. Kansas finally has the offensive weapons to compete but -10 will definitely be in play if the self inflicted mistakes occur (Captain Obvious) and KSU leans on advantages in the run game with Giddens, Johnson & Edwards (all Kansas High School kids btw). 

Rock Chalk and BOL

Good luck longhorn 

Ind was my first pick even without their starting qb. This team has something special going on this year.

I said last week if they beat Neb., they have a good shot being unbeaten heading into the Ohio St game.  Now,

With the injury to Rourke,it might be a little tougher, but they should still be able to handle Wash this week.

Yes hilarious….and always condescending from your end…Is it too much to ask for you to simply provide a perspective on these four picks or is that beneath because you are too busy replicating Marc Lawrence “Play On” and “Play Against” capping technique?     

Thank you.  The backup is a 4 star transfer from Tennessee.  I believe that he may be able to get the job done.

I am already on IU, with or without Rourke they win this by 10 plus. As totter has said, they are something special this year, and I think they will be undefeated when they play OSU

I couldn't or wouldn't touch USC for anything. Too many unknowns and they have lost four of five, and even though Rutgers has loss three straight and USC SHOULD win the game, just can't touch them. Don't trust them at all.

I do like KState over Kansas and I think with Kansas having another down year and since Kansas can't seem to cover a game (with exception of Houston)  I can see a two TD victory here

I have no feelings on the Washington State game. Pass for me

I just read where Rourke had successful surgery on his thumb and they are thinking he might be back by the game 

against Sparty. I think Jackson will be able to do ok vs Wash. 

@LonghornHoosier

 Alright ... well I like one of your schools and dislike the other ... so I'll give you my thoughts.

KSU is a tough, disciplined team but the performance at BYU gives me pause about them playing at Kansas. Total rivalry game here. KU looked much better last week after their bye. KSU certainly "can" cover 9.5 but I'd be concerned about them doing it on the road in a rivalry game. If they get a bad break, turnover, unfortunate call and start to spiral like they did in Provo, they could lose SU. I haven't looked at the total, but I could see the under being a safer play.

WSU covering 2 TDs against SDSU is an ok play but I think there are much better ones on the board. Cougars are inconsistent imo.

I took Indiana to cover 6.5 as well. If Rourke was healthy they'd cover 2 TDs against Washington. Without him, maybe they don't cover. But, IU has been killing kids all season and Cignetti is a savage. I think they'll get this done. I'm riding with them.

Southern Cal is another team I just don't have alot of confidence in as to what they will do from week to week. But, after last week, same is true for Rutgers. UCLA beat their ass in NJ. Trojans probably cover 14. Just not a bet I'd make bc I think there are more predictable teams on the board.

If you’re asking for input…I would fade all of your plays except Indiana 

I do agree with this play …. Gundy @ Waco 

“Thank you in advance...for the takes...Please be honest and critical...I can take it..."I'm a man...I'm 40..." - Mike Gundy ”

As far an input, wazzu laying 2 TD's seems rich as it's a road game.

This is a 'special' team at IU.

Udub on the road off a bye but IU - lay it.

And get on  Navy plus the points and sprinkle da moneyline 

Indiana will be his only loser.

why do you say that?  Washington lost to Rutgers…I think your perspective is based on perceived reputation …

Starting QB/ Backup....whatever

Indiana is in uncharted waters. They have been rolling. Now face a team I don't think they've ever played. WITH a roadie at MSU, then Big Blue at home, then a roadie at OSU. These kids prolly don't know anything about Washington.

Line is short as hell considering travel, and all the road beatdowns Washington has had. Indy av 500 pts/in home games.

It's Washington or pass

BOL

@LonghornHoosier

 I'm not trying to instigate anything here, but why are you so loathsome to try and learn something from spottie?  
Being successful in ANYTHING is all about learning, and continuing to learn and learning from ppl who have success doing things differently from yourself.  You say you want opinions on your plays because you aren't having the success you want, why would you not try and learn from him?  You're attitude just doesn't reflect someone who really wants to get better 

You don’t have a context for the relationship.    And I have neither the time nor the desire to explain it to you.  I am respectful of almost  every poster on this forum.    I made an early week post asking members of the forum for perspectives on my 4 leans and that’s it…I am honest, transparent and humble with my picks.  I am not a tout and I have no desire to get a following.  I post simply to keep myself accountable…Were Spotties responses consistent with my question?  No, they were not…Thus I responded in kind.  Spottie seems like an intelligent person and a good capper, though his online demeanor could use some work..

Yoh should focus on your capping skills and not involve yourself with others…Good luck on your picks this week…

Quote: Originally Posted by DestroyThePitch]@LonghornHoosier  I'm not trying to instigate anything here, but why are you so loathsome to try and learn something from spottie?  Being successful in ANYTHING is all about learning, and continuing to learn and learning from ppl who have success doing things differently from yourself.  You say you want opinions on your plays because you aren't having the success you want, why would you not try and learn from him?  You're attitude just doesn't reflect someone who really wants to get better[/Quote]